What a chart, further to go, or not
Comments please

Hhttp://930e888ea91284a71b0e-62c980cafddf9881bf167fdfb702406c.r96.cf1.rackcdn.com/data/tvc_9d67516e17a09f014d5dce2dd3037649.png

Bought some more at just below 62p

Has reached close enough to support, after having a very large drop recently.
Order book has change from being weak on the bid side to strong DEPTH 69 v 47

Another oil company shortly to be at the mercy of its lenders?

All a gamble at the moment-if they get an agreement on restructuring debt then yes sp will improve provided OPEC come at last to their senses... if neither happens then a serlously risky stock

55.75p +7.25p (+14.95%)

Premier Oil (LON:PMO) Rating
London: In analysts note made public on Tuesday, 15 November, Deutsche maintained their Buy rating on shares of Premier Oil (LON:PMO). They currently have a GBX 90.00 target price per share on the company. Deutsche’s target gives a potential upside of 72.25% from the company’s current price.

Premier Oil PLC (LON:PMO) Ratings Coverage
Out of 23 analysts covering Premier Oil PLC (LON:PMO), 12 rate it a “Buy”, 3 “Sell”, while 8 “Hold”. This means 52% are positive. GBX 370 is the highest target while GBX 12 is the lowest. The GBX 111.57 average target is 113.53% above today’s (GBX 52.25) stock price. Premier Oil PLC has been the topic of 165 analyst reports since July 24, 2015 according to StockzIntelligence Inc.

The firm has “Buy” rating by Liberum Capital given on Wednesday, May 11. The firm earned “Neutral” rating on Thursday, March 3 by Davy Research. As per Friday, August 21, the company rating was maintained by Beaufort Securities. On Monday, November 16 the stock rating was maintained by Liberum Capital with “Buy”.

About 5.48 million shares traded hands. Premier Oil PLC (LON:PMO) has declined 7.62% since April 15, 2016 and is downtrending. It has underperformed by 11.55% the S&P500.

Http://www.whatsonthorold.com/2016/11/15/stock-rating-runner-deutsche-reaffirms-a-buy-rating-on-premier-oil-lonpmo-and-gbx-90-00-target/

FTSE 100 about to get exciting

Chart pattern emerging

Taking a wider view of the blue-chip index, we see an interesting chart pattern building, not dissimilar to the simple wedge pattern we saw develop during September.

Then, a series of higher lows over a three-month period following the post-referendum crash formed a solid uptrend.

Predicting the market's next move is harder than ever - just watch the trendAt the beginning of October, that uptrend converged with the downtrend from the April 2015 high. An inevitable chart breakout was worth over 200 points and a new record high.

Now, another uptrend from the same June low is converging with that same downtrend begun 18 months ago. Expect a similarly dramatic outcome, although which way the break goes is unclear. Given the weak bounces off the uptrend, the prognosis does not look particularly good.

However, it's been very obvious in recent sessions that predicting the market's next move is harder than ever. Just watch the trend.

56.60p +2.125p

Trading and Operations Update - 17 November 2016

Premier today provides a Trading and Operations Update for the period 1 January to 31 October 2016.

Highlights
·
Comprehensive term sheet for refinancing in final stages of negotiation with the Group's banks and private bondholders
·
Production averaged 69 kboepd year-to-date; current run rate of >80 kboepd, on track to meet previously increased full year guidance of 68-73 kboepd
·
Outperformance from the Huntington, Chim Sáo and Natuna Sea Block A fields; production currently constrained at the Solan field
·
Catcher on schedule for first oil in 2017 with total capex now estimated at $1.7 billion, 24% lower than at sanction; FPSO outfitting continues apace and well delivery remains ahead of prognosis
·
Exclusivity period with preferred bidder for the Pakistan business has ended; discussions continue with the previously preferred bidder and new third parties; Pakistan assets substantially outperforming in 2016, value to be retained by Premier
·
Forecast 2016 operating costs of $15.9/bbl and gross G&A of $196 million, both significantly below budget
·
Forecast 2016 exploration and development capex expected to be below previous guidance of $730 million; 2017 capex anticipated to be materially lower at $300 million
·
Net debt of $2.8 billion at 31 October, marginally down from Q3, with cash and undrawn facilities on hand of c. $600 million

Tony Durrant, Chief Executive, commented:
"Against a challenging commodity price backdrop, Premier continues to deliver operationally. The company is benefitting from a step change in production with a significantly lower cost base while excellent progress has been made on the Catcher project, which remains on track for first oil next year. Refinancing of the Group's debt has taken longer than anticipated but will, once completed, put Premier in good stead to reinvest in the business while, at the same, time paying down debt. In the medium term, Premier sees increasing value in the Tolmount area, the Sea Lion projects and its exploration acreage in Mexico."

Vulnerable if there is another slide in the oil price.

The Oil Man: Oil price, Premier Oil - By Malcolm Graham-Wood | Thu, 17th November 2016 - 10:23

Oil prices drifted yesterday; to begin with there wasn't much news, so the American Petroleum Institute news from after the close eased things off a bit.

Later the Energy Information Administration (EIA) numbers proved to be worse: a build of 5.3 million barrels of crude and modest rises in products were bigger than expected, despite a rise in refinery utilisation from 87.1% to 89.2%. The EIA put this down to a rise in imports - last week 910/- barrels.

Fortunately, Russia came to the rescue, saying that it would support "any OPEC" decision at the upcoming meeting. Secretary General Barkindo is still travelling; at the moment he is meeting the Venezuelan oil minister in Caracas.

Premier Oil

A trading update from Premier (PMO) this morning which is pretty much the same as other recent trading news, i.e. operationally things are going very well - with the usual exception of Solan, of course.

Production continues to beat estimates, at the moment it is 80/- barrels per day (b/d) with an annual average of 69/- b/d and recently upgraded guidance of 68-73/- b/d still very much achievable.

Catcher is still on target for production in 2017 and down 24% on costs, whilst at Sea Lion FEED work is ongoing and break-even costs are $45 per barrel and falling.

As to the debt, which stands at $2.8 billion, the good news is that the term sheet for the refinancing is in the "final stages" of renegotiation and it looks as if it is pretty well what the company needs.

It is for the full amount, gives headroom for Catcher, gives security and appropriate economics to the lenders and, as one might expect, has governance controls in the process.

This has all taken longer than expected and, of course, given rise to speculation in the market that some of the lending group were keen to jump ship - 'twas ever thus, I suspect - but it looks as if it has got far enough to be a runner…

At the moment I am still giving the Premier team the benefit of the doubt for doing a great job.

As oil price was rising for the second day after the OPEC cut of 1.2M, the share price reached at one time 69.50p, as it bounced from 50p yesterday.

in % terms it has certainly done better than TLW, though the latter has been no slouch either
from a longer term perspective, the latter is probably a better bet

Macquarie today downgrades its investment rating on Premier Oil PLC (LON:PMO) to neutral (from outperform) and cut its price target to 80p (from 103p).
"On Premier, alongside our recommendation change, we have reduced our TP from 103p to 80p on lowered expectations for Solan production due to P2 underperformance."

Jefferies International today (09/01/17) reaffirms its buy investment rating on Premier Oil PLC (LON:PMO) and raised its price target to 116p (from 88p).

Where is it going?

StockMarketWire.com
Premier Oil announces a proposed refinancing, with agreement of representatives of its private lenders to a long-form term sheet, subject to credit approvals.

Premier further announced the agreement of revised key terms between it and representatives of its convertible bondholders, subject to agreement by the private lenders.

The company also proposed amended terms to its retail bonds.

Premier said the refinancing would provide a solid foundation for the company to deliver its strategic plans through preserving the group's debt facilities, resetting financial covenant headroom and extending its debt maturities to 2021 and beyond.

"In return, the lenders will receive a revised security and covenant package, enhanced economics and certain governance controls," Premier said in a statement.

"The long-form term sheet will now be circulated to the lenders under the company's RCF, term loan, Schuldschein and US Private Placement notes (Private Lenders) for formal credit committee approval, with lock-up agreements requested by the end of February.

"Revised financing documentation will now be finalised with completion of the refinancing currently anticipated by the end of May 2017."

PRODUCTION

Premier said its year-to-date production had averaged about 80 kboepd.

"A significant step up in production is expected once Catcher is on-stream later this year, materially enhancing the Group's cash flows," it said.

"The Group will prioritise these cash flows towards reducing its absolute debt levels and leverage ratio to 3x EBITDA.

"At the same time, Premier and its lenders envisage that the Group will selectively seek to invest in its unsanctioned projects, at the appropriate equity levels, with due regard to the commodity price environment."

With rising production and 700 mmboe of discovered but undeveloped reserves and resources, the company had considerable portfolio optionality.

"Unsanctioned projects include infill drilling programmes, incremental developments and new projects such as Tolmount, Tuna and Sea Lion. Premier also has the potential for material value creation through its exploration acreage, including in Mexico, with drilling expected to commence in Q2."

Bought some at 66.69p

KEEP an EYE

PMO 66.50p ( 66.25/66.75p )

Look like the fall is over as it has reached well over the lows expected under 71p being 200 days MA where there usually has some support and then 61.8% Fibonacci retracement @ 68.85p. but when stop losses are applied then the share price over shoots like today to 64.75p

chart done a few days ago

Premier notes the recent weakness in its share price.

As per the timetable previously guided, the Private Lenders are currently going through their formal credit committee approval process in respect of locking up to the terms of the refinancing and good progress is being made. Premier is also in the process of finalising agreement to the amended terms of its convertible bonds with additional significant bondholders who are also expected to lock up shortly. Premier expects to provide a refinancing update to the market in the next few days.

Current operational performance remains strong with production year to date averaging over 79 kboepd against market guidance of 75 kboepd, which remains unchanged.

The TIMES - MARKET REPORT - february 25 2017, 12:01am
Premier slides lower as debt fears prove sticky - martin waller

The bears have been at Premier Oil (PMO ). The North Sea and southeast Asia producer is nearing the end of a difficult exercise to reschedule its $2.8 billion of debt, and the shares have been falling sharply because of fears that this may go awry.

Shares in Premier lost another 4¼p to 66¾p yesterday and the company was forced to put out a reassuring statement that “good progress is being made” in talks with the 40-odd holders of the debt and that a refinancing update was expected “in the next few days”.

The shares had been good performers at the start of the year, topping out at approaching £1 in early January. Premier has a substantial number of retail investors and it is thought that the shares have been undermined by chatter on unregulated bulletin boards.

A failure to reach agreement with the lenders is regarded as highly unlikely: Premier Oil said at the start of the month that terms had been agreed with advisers to the lenders, and a final agreement could be signed off as early as next week.

71.25p +4.50p (+6.74%)

That is a very strong bounce with 4M volume, but it was a very large drop lately

The Oil Man: - By Malcolm Graham-Wood | Mon, 27th February 2017

Premier Oil

A slight whiff of panic from the market on Friday meant that Prems (PMO) had to knock out a press release saying that all was going fine with the finalising of the refinancing of the debt process.

With formal credit committee approvals needed and of course the amendment of terms for the convertible, many suits are needed to sign off the process. We are told to expect an update "in the next few days" which can't come too soon for everyone involved one way or another.

Brent OIL price uptrend