I suspect trading tomorrow will probably answer this conundrum, but I know there are some far wiser owls than me that contribute to this bb & I would be interested in their opinions.

My question is this: the chart below looks to me like a pullback of the uptrend (ie when it went north through 14.00) however I am unsure as it has now broken down through 14.00 whether this is trending up or down :-(

So what do you think - up or down, or should I just flip a coin :-)) ?

StockMarketWire.com
Hedge fund manager Man Group reported statutory profit before tax from continuing operations of $193m for the nine months to end-December.

This was in line with estimates in the January trading statement.

Funds under management (FUM) at end-February were estimated at $59.5bn (31st December 2011: $58.4bn), reflecting positive investment performance partially offset by net outflows and guaranteed product de-gears.

At 27th February, AHL was 10.9% below high water mark on a weighted average basis.

Man AHL Diversified plc is up 2.5% in the year to 27th February 2012.

At 24th February, two thirds of GLG funds were above or within 5% of performance fee highs.

The calendar year to 24th February performance for key GLG UCITS strategies: European Equity Alternative +6.0%, North American Equity Alternative +4.0%, Alpha Select +5.2%, Global Convertibles +8.4%, Emerging Markets +6.9%, Atlas Macro -0.4%, Japan Core Alpha +19.3%, Global Equity +11.3%.

Mmanagement fees: 100% of adjusted management fee earnings per share to be paid out in each financial year by way of ordinary dividend.

Performance fees: net performance fee earnings will be added to available capital surpluses and distributed to shareholders over time by way of higher dividend payments and/or share repurchases.

The Board intends to apply this policy in 2012 to pay a total dividend for the year of 22 cents per share.

The Board confirms that it will recommend a final dividend of 7.0 cents per share for the nine months to end-December, giving a total dividend for the period of 16.5 cents per share.

After a capital buffer, Man currently has surplus regulatory capital of over $550m.

Numis summary note:
"Valuations: We continue to see one-year forward ROE vs. PBV as a good predictor of longer-term valuations. Given the recent gains in Man Group shares from the lows of 104.5p (up 32%), we see the pace of further valuation gains as dependent on reporting surprises on AUM levels in a challenging environment.
We continue to retain a BUY on a one-year forward ROE basis (2013E) and see fair value at 182p, which includes a 27p option premium for performance fees.
This stock thus remains a longer play on valuations and performance fees returning, in our view."

Long on the spreads today @ 144.1

Trading statement 17/04 Ex Divi 25/04

Target 170.0

Chris,
How much is the dividend, the date, please?

Ex divi 25th Apr '12. 7.0¢

Thanks HC.
That's about 8 p.

ahoj - stopped out on the spreads, still hold a few for the divi, watching for a re- entry on the spreads chart not promising at mo.

RBCapital note:
More negative news for Man Group. We believe the shares could continue to be under pressure.

First Impression
Yesterday Moody’s placed all debt ratings of Man on review for possible downgrade; Moody’s currently rates Man’s senior debt at Baa2. Moody’s believes that “the strength and stability of Man’s future revenue and earning streams has weakened due to recent business trends.” Moody’s also states that the rating reviews reflects “continuing challenges” in the company’s core business, and specifically notes:

• Ongoing pressures on earnings, margins and FUM growth which are “unlikely to return to historic levels in the near term.” Moody’s believes the worsening outlook for Man is “the result of general market pressures as well as weaker sales of guaranteed products, changes in Man’s product mix toward lower margin products … and the lower margins achieved by the GLG product range, leading to overall lower margins.”

• Moody’s also notes “continued underperformance from key funds” which leave them “below high-water marks, despite the improvement of equity markets.” Indeed, yesterday Man Group also reported that AHL fell 2.5% week-on-week, leaving it over 13% from high water-mark, in our opinion.

• Moody’s also believes that pressures on the hedge fund business will call “into question the sustainability of high fees.” We note that AHL charges higher fees than its peers, which include Aspect and Winton.

Moody’s will evaluate Q1 results and evaluate the “likelihood of a sustainable turnaround in FUM trends,” and the “potential for improvement in earnings.” Moody’s did note that Man maintains “strong liquidity with a healthy net cash position.” At 31 Dec 2011, while Man had $1,066m in borrowings, it also had $1,639m in cash leaving the company in a net cash position of $573m. Moody’s also notes the positive effects from Man’s cost savings plan, Man’s “improved product, geography and investor base,” and the company’s continued “strong market position in the alternative investments industry.”

We agree with Moody’s and believe the negatives and positives noted in Moody’s report are accurate and reasonable. While we believe that Man’s debt ratings should have minimal impact on financial results (largely as a result of Man’s net cash position), we believe that it is likely that Man could indeed be downgraded and this would be negative for sentiment. We continue to believe that in the absence of strong AHL performance and the cessation of outflows, we fail to see positive catalysts in the near-term. Thus, it is possible that Man Group’s share price may be volatile and continue to underperform.

Which banks are going to get money out of 65bln repaid by Lehman?

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/84de9064-8427-11e1-9d54-00144feab49a.html#axzz1rpecfkYZ

HarRYCUT,
you sent this message on 1st Feb. How to you defend yourself now when MAN Group is 112 now??

"Are you MAN enough?" not to send contradictory messages every now and then?!!

HARRYCAT - 01 Feb 2012 10:27 - 462 of 482

Good luck with that! 300p any time soon would be good!

sub100p anyone..?

ahoj, it was in response to Goldfinger going long on EMG. Nothing to defend. I stand by my good luck message and reiterate that 300p would be good (as I am a long term holder).

thank you.

sp sinking like a stone is there something we don't know?

Too risky to hold .

lose too much to sell :((

I was contemplating buying here - ex dividend Wednesday week, 7p yield@9.65%.

Someone pursuade me to buy!

Would love to skinny, but even though the divi is about the best around, not much point in taking a capital loss on the stock at the same time. Don't quite understand why a company which is so cash rich is languishing down at this level. I suppose the institutional investors look at it in the long term so aren't too worried about lowly valuations at the moment.

Perhaps I'll look at BA. instead (ex divi next week).