http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/06/21/600951/markets-live/
NH but Merrill are pushing Rockhopper
NH Flow test to establish base-case commerciality
We are adding our BUY rated Rockhopper (PO 515p) to the BofAML Europe
MidCap 1 list of preferred stocks. RKH trades at a 58% discount to our 515p NAV,
the largest discount of all E&Ps under coverage. Market concerns surrounding
commerciality of the SeaLion discovery in the Falklands remain despite the recent successful appraisal well. We believe that positive results from the forthcoming flow test of this appraisal should prove market concerns overdone.
Given indications from prior wells and the thick pay encountered in this well (93m vs 53m at the original find), we firmly believe that sustained flow rates of c.4kboe/d are achievable and could even surprise on the upside.
NH Western flank offers significant upside
A further appraisal well located 4.2km to the west of the initial discovery well will follow these ongoing tests. This will be the first well to test the western extension of the field within managements larger mid-case area for the main fan, as well as targeting the lower fan. At prognosis the upper fan is set to thin out to the west and should be offset by the thickening of the lower fan. Whilst clearly riskier, we believe that the western flank well (worth 60p risked, 183p unrisked) could add an extra 50-60mmboe, and move SeaLions resources towards the 155mmboe level from the 80-100mmboe level currently discounted in the shares.
Southern extension another source of potential volumes
Ongoing 3D seismic studies should enable management to determine a high-case
area for the field including any potential southern extension. Early signs provided by neighbouring operators have already indicated a potential southern extension to the SeaLion field although management have been reluctant to be drawn on it.
Fully processed seismic data from the surveys is set to be completed by July,
followed by detailed interpretation of the results and a formal update to the market a few weeks thereafter.
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