What a chart, further to go, or not
Comments please

The Oil Man: Oil price, Premier Oil - By Malcolm Graham-Wood | Thu, 17th November 2016 - 10:23

Oil prices drifted yesterday; to begin with there wasn't much news, so the American Petroleum Institute news from after the close eased things off a bit.

Later the Energy Information Administration (EIA) numbers proved to be worse: a build of 5.3 million barrels of crude and modest rises in products were bigger than expected, despite a rise in refinery utilisation from 87.1% to 89.2%. The EIA put this down to a rise in imports - last week 910/- barrels.

Fortunately, Russia came to the rescue, saying that it would support "any OPEC" decision at the upcoming meeting. Secretary General Barkindo is still travelling; at the moment he is meeting the Venezuelan oil minister in Caracas.

Premier Oil

A trading update from Premier (PMO) this morning which is pretty much the same as other recent trading news, i.e. operationally things are going very well - with the usual exception of Solan, of course.

Production continues to beat estimates, at the moment it is 80/- barrels per day (b/d) with an annual average of 69/- b/d and recently upgraded guidance of 68-73/- b/d still very much achievable.

Catcher is still on target for production in 2017 and down 24% on costs, whilst at Sea Lion FEED work is ongoing and break-even costs are $45 per barrel and falling.

As to the debt, which stands at $2.8 billion, the good news is that the term sheet for the refinancing is in the "final stages" of renegotiation and it looks as if it is pretty well what the company needs.

It is for the full amount, gives headroom for Catcher, gives security and appropriate economics to the lenders and, as one might expect, has governance controls in the process.

This has all taken longer than expected and, of course, given rise to speculation in the market that some of the lending group were keen to jump ship - 'twas ever thus, I suspect - but it looks as if it has got far enough to be a runner…

At the moment I am still giving the Premier team the benefit of the doubt for doing a great job.

As oil price was rising for the second day after the OPEC cut of 1.2M, the share price reached at one time 69.50p, as it bounced from 50p yesterday.

in % terms it has certainly done better than TLW, though the latter has been no slouch either
from a longer term perspective, the latter is probably a better bet

Macquarie today downgrades its investment rating on Premier Oil PLC (LON:PMO) to neutral (from outperform) and cut its price target to 80p (from 103p).
"On Premier, alongside our recommendation change, we have reduced our TP from 103p to 80p on lowered expectations for Solan production due to P2 underperformance."

Jefferies International today (09/01/17) reaffirms its buy investment rating on Premier Oil PLC (LON:PMO) and raised its price target to 116p (from 88p).

Where is it going?

StockMarketWire.com
Premier Oil announces a proposed refinancing, with agreement of representatives of its private lenders to a long-form term sheet, subject to credit approvals.

Premier further announced the agreement of revised key terms between it and representatives of its convertible bondholders, subject to agreement by the private lenders.

The company also proposed amended terms to its retail bonds.

Premier said the refinancing would provide a solid foundation for the company to deliver its strategic plans through preserving the group's debt facilities, resetting financial covenant headroom and extending its debt maturities to 2021 and beyond.

"In return, the lenders will receive a revised security and covenant package, enhanced economics and certain governance controls," Premier said in a statement.

"The long-form term sheet will now be circulated to the lenders under the company's RCF, term loan, Schuldschein and US Private Placement notes (Private Lenders) for formal credit committee approval, with lock-up agreements requested by the end of February.

"Revised financing documentation will now be finalised with completion of the refinancing currently anticipated by the end of May 2017."

PRODUCTION

Premier said its year-to-date production had averaged about 80 kboepd.

"A significant step up in production is expected once Catcher is on-stream later this year, materially enhancing the Group's cash flows," it said.

"The Group will prioritise these cash flows towards reducing its absolute debt levels and leverage ratio to 3x EBITDA.

"At the same time, Premier and its lenders envisage that the Group will selectively seek to invest in its unsanctioned projects, at the appropriate equity levels, with due regard to the commodity price environment."

With rising production and 700 mmboe of discovered but undeveloped reserves and resources, the company had considerable portfolio optionality.

"Unsanctioned projects include infill drilling programmes, incremental developments and new projects such as Tolmount, Tuna and Sea Lion. Premier also has the potential for material value creation through its exploration acreage, including in Mexico, with drilling expected to commence in Q2."

Bought some at 66.69p

KEEP an EYE

PMO 66.50p ( 66.25/66.75p )

Look like the fall is over as it has reached well over the lows expected under 71p being 200 days MA where there usually has some support and then 61.8% Fibonacci retracement @ 68.85p. but when stop losses are applied then the share price over shoots like today to 64.75p

chart done a few days ago

Premier notes the recent weakness in its share price.

As per the timetable previously guided, the Private Lenders are currently going through their formal credit committee approval process in respect of locking up to the terms of the refinancing and good progress is being made. Premier is also in the process of finalising agreement to the amended terms of its convertible bonds with additional significant bondholders who are also expected to lock up shortly. Premier expects to provide a refinancing update to the market in the next few days.

Current operational performance remains strong with production year to date averaging over 79 kboepd against market guidance of 75 kboepd, which remains unchanged.

The TIMES - MARKET REPORT - february 25 2017, 12:01am
Premier slides lower as debt fears prove sticky - martin waller

The bears have been at Premier Oil (PMO ). The North Sea and southeast Asia producer is nearing the end of a difficult exercise to reschedule its $2.8 billion of debt, and the shares have been falling sharply because of fears that this may go awry.

Shares in Premier lost another 4¼p to 66¾p yesterday and the company was forced to put out a reassuring statement that “good progress is being made” in talks with the 40-odd holders of the debt and that a refinancing update was expected “in the next few days”.

The shares had been good performers at the start of the year, topping out at approaching £1 in early January. Premier has a substantial number of retail investors and it is thought that the shares have been undermined by chatter on unregulated bulletin boards.

A failure to reach agreement with the lenders is regarded as highly unlikely: Premier Oil said at the start of the month that terms had been agreed with advisers to the lenders, and a final agreement could be signed off as early as next week.

71.25p +4.50p (+6.74%)

That is a very strong bounce with 4M volume, but it was a very large drop lately

The Oil Man: - By Malcolm Graham-Wood | Mon, 27th February 2017

Premier Oil

A slight whiff of panic from the market on Friday meant that Prems (PMO) had to knock out a press release saying that all was going fine with the finalising of the refinancing of the debt process.

With formal credit committee approvals needed and of course the amendment of terms for the convertible, many suits are needed to sign off the process. We are told to expect an update "in the next few days" which can't come too soon for everyone involved one way or another.

Brent OIL price uptrend

Annual Results for the year ended 31 December 2016

Press Release
Tony Durrant, Chief Executive, commented:

"Premier has a robust business which continues to deliver excellent operational performance. In 2016 we achieved record production, maintained a low operating cost base and completed the highly value adding acquisition of E.ON's UK upstream portfolio. Significant progress was made on our operated Catcher project which will deliver a further step change in our production levels once on-stream later this year. Our complex refinancing has created uncertainty and volatility but is now nearing completion. Looking forward, our strong and growing cash flows will reduce our debt and in due course allow us to invest in new projects to deliver value for all our stakeholders."

Operational highlights

· Record production of 71.4 kboepd, an increase of 24% on the prior year (2015: 57.6 kboepd)

· High operating efficiency of 91%

· E.ON's UK upstream portfolio outperforming; payback now anticipated in 2017 1H

· Cost base reset; opex of $15.8/boe; Catcher capex reduced by 29%

· 2P reserves and 2C resources increased to 835 mmboe (2015: 758 mmboe)


Financial highlights

· Profit after tax of US$122.6 million (2015: loss after tax US$1.1 billion), including a tax credit of US$522.0 million

· Cash flows from operations of US$431.4 million (2015: US$809.5 million)

· Capex of US$678.1 million, significantly below budget

· Net debt of $2.8 billion as at year-end (2015: $2.2 billion); reduced since peak in Q3 2016

· Cash and undrawn facilities of US$593 million



Refinancing

· Total debt facilities preserved and maturities extended to 2021 and beyond

· Completion of refinancing expected by end of May, as previously guided

· As separately announced today, RCF, Term Loan, USPP and convertible bondholders have locked up to refinancing terms



Outlook

· 2017 production guidance maintained at 75 kboepd, before any contribution from Catcher

· 2017 opex and capex guidance of <$16/boe and US$390 million, respectively

· Catcher on schedule for 2017 first oil; improved field production profile now anticipated

· Greater Tolmount Area value significantly enhanced; offshore FEED commenced

· High impact Zama exploration prospect in Mexico to spud in Q2 2017

· Net cash flow positive at the forward curve in 2017; debt reduction accelerating once Catcher on-stream

63p +8.25 (+15.07%)

The best oil performer today after yesterday's large drop on oil falling at one time
there was a reason for today's large rise RNS .....

Refinancing update -- 15 March 2017
Premier today announces that the final Schuldschein loan holder has entered into the lock up agreement with respect to the terms of the proposed refinancing.
As a result of this, the lock up agreements entered into by the Private Lenders (comprising the RCF, FLS Term Loan, US Private Placement notes and Schuldschein loans) and the convertible bondholders have now become effective, committing the parties who have locked up to vote in favour of the refinancing.

was certainly a great one to be holding already, but no point in buying i think after the event
close followers should have noted a few weeks ago that the funding was likely to get approved

Further rise this evening on the oil price

Further good rise today to 67.25p +3.75p (+5.91%)

66.50p +2.75p

fund managers expect oil prices to double

fund managers expect oil prices to double

fund managers expect oil prices to double
really???? ....... in their dreams!!

WTI currently <$48

StockMarketWire.com
Premier Oil has signed a share purchase agreement with Al-Haj Energy Ltd (Al-Haj) for the sale of Premier Oil Pakistan Holdings BV for $65.6m cash.

Premier anticipated recording a book gain on disposal estimated at $40m.

Al-Haj had paid a deposit to Premier of $15m and would pay a further interim deposit of $10m within the next 60 days.

The deal was in line with Premier's strategy to dispose of non-core assets. Proceeds from the sale would be used to reduce the company's net debt.

The economic date of the transaction was Jan. 1, 2017, with Premier retaining 2016 net cash flows.

The transaction was subject to receipt of customary government and regulatory approvals and is expected to complete by year-end 2017.