Hi all
pretty new to all this. I have pumped some into Deltex - looks like a strong product with good growth. Could be a steady gainer.
Does anyone else have this, and anyone have some research on it? Someone with more experience than me!
thanks in advance.
Grajul

Results.

No real surprises. It's steady as she goes. Still awaiting that big order jump, although nice to see the USA increasingly in on the act.
The only thing that bothers me is the cash situation. Although cash burn is reducing, the cushion is a bit low for comfort. In total I feel we need as much patience as the Deltex management appear to have.
Looks like a HOLD.

greekman I agree-----------Patience and Patients required for DEMG the sp is a far cry from the 31p a few months ago, sales are increasing and the 2H is stonger than the 1H, whereas more than half the annual admin costs were in the 1H which should reduce the cash burn. Still looks promising, but time is required. I did sell part of my holding @ 27.75p and have bought back in again since, whether I want any more I'm not sure. I like IPX atm so may have a look there. Good look all.
2517

The drop is today is due to 2 reasons. The market in general, but mainly because punters patience is wearing a bit thin.
Deltex management appear to be doing their best, with presentations, sales pitches and publishing the now 50 plus positive trial results.
Can't see that they and us can do any more but wait, and hope the powers that be see the light before the money runs out.
The managerial cogs in the medical field appear to turn ever slower.
Perhaps the decision makers, especially in the NHS should have an operational procedure termed, extract-um digit-um from anusectomy.

THE COUNT--->ALL

I made the following post on another board the other day.

Regards,

THE COUNT!




25 Sep'07

THE COUNT--->ALL

It's a steady as she goes set of results with base line growth of 25%. This is the slow track of a possible 2 track growth path. We have yet to see any fast track growth, but with what has been put into place in recent years via strong supporting clinical trials and the US medical reimbursement news, at some stage this is bound to happen.

We knew what the turnover would be and yet some still self induced expectations of much more with these results only to inevitably end up getting disappointed. It is very rare for a company that doesn't resort to hype to push its share price to come out with news on the day of results. Any material news should be announced within a day or 2 of it occurring.

But still, the sell off today was anticipated and I picked up another 50,000 shares at 19.2p. This is an investment and my own time frames are not a few weeks or months. I strongly believe the riskiest part of the waiting has already been incurred in previous years. The company now picks its level of cash burn to match its steady increase in sales because they have made it clear on more than one occasion that this is all about grabbing a good share of the market they are creating and will ultimately be valued on multiples of turnover, the same as other medical device companies operating in potentially vast and relatively untapped markets.

The risk/reward is very good with a company with 80% recurring revenues. That means that year on year, barring a massive disaster which could befall anyone, the company does not have to strain particularly hard to generate 80% of its turnover which is one of the main reasons I was attracted to this in the first place.

I am repeating a lot in the following lines, but I have added some bits where I think it relevant. The major points are as follows....


1) Increase in sales of 26% over that of the same period of last year.

2) In the largest market on the planet there are 'clear signs of accelerating sales growth, with sales enquiries and requests for training support at record levels. ' This is clearly just the tip of the iceberg. Once the USA firmly goes down the route of acceptance and take up, unlike much of the rest of the world, they really do go for it in record time.

3) 80% recurring sales. These are sales that don't have to be won from scratch in the following years. Just like the blade sales of people's razors. Sustainability and repeatability of sales as assured as you can get.

4) Sales in the early part of the current half year ahead of last year's, and with growth in all 3 markets, we should comfortably exceeed that of the first half as per usual.

5) Disappointing UK sales growth. But despite a politically forced slowdown on hospitals to balance their books (they just pick on the easiest expenditure and that which is least likely to make the news), lasting 3 months culminating in a bad March figure, we still grew UK sales by 11%. I heard that sales in March had fallen off a cliff in the UK, so the 11% growth should not be belittled and points to a strong underlying growth helped by ever growing clinical demand which is way ahead of actual sales, and this is DESPITE the best efforts of politicians and hospital administrators to scupper this. This should translate very bullishly in our international markets.

6) We also have been told that since the financial y/end of the NHS, the following 5 months have returned to trend line growth ( of 20% ++ ). So in other words, trend line growth is back in the UK for the months of April, May, June, July and August.

7) The second half of the year is traditionally stronger than the first. And we are growing so we should be able to achieve sales well in excess of last year's H2 figure of 1,996,000. My own guess is for a minimum H2 figure of 2.4m - 2.5m.

8) The ever growing international markets, which will not be as exposed to the highly embarrassing incompetence of the NHS, grew by 67%. Increase in probe sales alone was 40%. I think that is very good news. As this figure becomes a greater part of the whole, then we should be less concerned about variations in the UK.

9) In the USA, there has been a strong increase in the interest in the CardioQ and this has been further accelerated since the publication of a strongly positive US government-funded review ('technology assessment'). As a result of this, the rate of sales growth has been accelerating in the USA since the end of the first half of 2006, a trend that has continued throughout and beyond the first half of 2007. US sales were 60% ahead of H1 1996.

10) The company warned and made it quite clear that despite the positive developments in the USA, we should not expect an immediate explosion of orders. It would still take 12 - 18 months for the message to really start to be communicated to the docs.

But very importantly, the amount of reimbursement has not yet been set by the authorities and this will have a significant effect on acclerated usage. So, really, we have only seen sales so far from the normal organic growth in the USA based on existing business development. If the reimbursement figure is set soon, we could still see another significant leap in US interest. The US market really is the tip of a very, very large iceberg.

11) Likely that more than half of the eventual full year costs are recognised in the first half of the year, whereas sales are normally higher in the second half of the year. Sales will go up in 2nd half so costs should very substantially reduce further as some have already poined out. I'm with the sensible posters above who say that we are unlikely to raise more money...certainly not for working capital.

12) Cash burn is well under control despite what the merchants of doom (coupled with their pathetic private agendas) are trying to say as shown in the statement....

'The underlying cash burn, the difference between regular monthly revenues and regular monthly costs, is reducing as sales volumes grow and the sales growth necessary to eliminate the remaining underlying cash burn is comfortably achievable from well qualified, target or existing customer accounts in our main markets.'

13) Any further expediture will be done well within their means as evidenced in the following....

'we will continue to invest in individual projects that fall outside the underlying cost base dependent on the resources available and the anticipated returns from the project.'

14) Apart from March, for reasons already given, sales of probes in the UK were ahead of the corresponding month in the previous year, and this has been the case for 33 consecutive months (excluding march).

15) Along with one other unnamed major UK teaching hospital, UCLH has implemented the use of the CardioQ as standard procedure for most major ops and the results are 'impressive' and will be made public soon.

This must not be underestimated as it will significantly strengthen DEMG's case with both politicians and hospital finance people to speed up the implementation of our technology. This could be highly significant for us, and even if the NHS still managed to drag their feet, this will be noticed around the world because our teaching hospitals are well known and highly respected institutions.

16) They expect to announce further progress on initiatives to accelerate take up in the UK before year end.

17) The second half year has started well so it looks certain that we shall get further improved performance on last year's H2 results.

Slowly, slowly, catchee monkey.

18) Despite accelerating US sales, they will still partner with a US device major at a time of their choosing. This will accelerate sales quite dramatically, otherwise why bother giving away the extra margin to the partner?

19) Once the US reimbursement is under way, other medical insurance companies will follow suit and their own rates are likely to be higher still, thus helping to increase the attractiveness of using the CardioQ to the practitioner.

20) They are implementing manufacturing capacity increases and also manufacturing cost cutting projects which should improve margins further still to go hand in hand with steadily increasing sales. Again, this is a very material comment especially regarding evntual and sustainable profitability.

21) Further major trials are planned both here, Europe and in the USA and also will include the wholly non invasive SupraQ.



The company may not have used the flowery language of certain other companies in trying to communicate their progress, but the evidence of slow, yet potentially very material, progress is in that statement on closer inspection.

Their expenditure is totally under control and they will spend according to their means.

Progress has been steadily made along the slow track to profitablity. The clinical evidence and increased acceptance of the product will one day take us on to the fast track of sales growth which is something we have yet to see but which will inevitably come one day. I don't know when that will be but I hold in anticipation. When it happens, the rerating will be very fast and could be spectacular with such a low valued and illiquid stock.

Regards,

THE COUNT!

THE COUNT--->ALL

I also think the following post is relevant to the chat on here.

Regards,

THE COUNT!



26 Sep'07

THE COUNT--->XXXXXX

'the inevitable future news flow from America must have an impact on the share price and I know from bitter experience it is very hard to force yourself to buy back into a company at a higher price than you sold at.
Such are the joys of investing in small cap shares and I wish you luck whatever you decide to do but I hope to see you back on board soon.'

Never a truer word said.

As for the problems with the NHS, you are absolutely right and the running of such a massive public service/body is shambolic, and so important to us all. All politicians should hang their heads in shame.

The situation that you paint was exactly highlighted at the quite recent testimony to the Commons Select Committee. You'd think the twats that sat on that would have gone back to their masters and told them to change things before the public finds out about this staggering incompetence...but once again...nothing.

How can anything of this size, with the potential savings to be made, operate what is referred to as silo budgeting? Put simply, in case anyone has still to hear of this, it's a case of one holder of a specific budget in the hospital saying to another, 'I am not interested in spending 65 extra of my hard won budget so that other budget centres can save money and save the hospital (as a whole), many hundreds of pounds'. And that's forgetting the extra benefit to the patient him/her self.

But it gets much, much worse. The super efficient advisory bodies set up to make recommendations to the NHS, such as NICE, are allowed to look at (and to recommend) new technologies that COST MORE and give the patient more benefit, but staggeringly, they are NOT allowed to look at technologies that SAVE the NHS very material amounts of money and are of benefit to the patient.

Unbelievable...yes? Staggeringly inept..yes? In a dictatorship, these people who preside over shambles like these would likely be executed, or at best, life imprisoned.

However, there is light at the end of the tunnel. Despite all this, and thanks to DEMG and the many supporting trials using their technology, the clinical establishment is behind them and the NHS is the biggest user of targetted volume management in the world. This obviously won't last long unless the incompetent politicians take their fingers out of their smelly arseholes and smell the crap they have presided over.The USA will overtake them very quickly and then they will play catch up with a technology that they first helped to prove up and then they allowed to go abroad.

Despite the problems highlighted above, the UK is growing by about 25%pa. This is slow track growth. So the pressure to use the technology is so overwhelming that it still manages to overcome the stupidity of those running our country and our health service. This should be very positive when we reach critical mass for overseas markets which are not beset by such crass incompetence.

I think the USA could explode within the next year or two.

Regards,

THE COUNT!

THE COUNT--->ALL

There's a new article on us at

http://www.reducinglengthofstay.org.uk/innews.html

Just click on the Clinical Services Journal article dated September 07.
Happy reading.

Regards,

THE COUNT!

The Count-------Thanks for that, I've not read the new article but your previous 2 posts and also post 451 again, like many aim stocks we seem to need an abundance of patience for them, I have many such stocks and from time to time need reminding as to why I invested in a particular company in the first place. As a result I have bought more today. I still like IPX, though up 10%ish.
2517

The Count.....Yes,thanks re your reports. It beggars belief that the sales don't reflect the positive reports/trials of the Cardio products.

I wonder if the RNS release subject is anything to do with the appiontment of Sir Ara Darzi (my post 30/06/07) to the NHS government advisory group. It's very good news, but don't hold your breath for a result. The wheels of NHS bureaucracy as we know turn very slowly.

Can't understand why the sp has not risen at least a few points, but probably because there is still very little interest in this share. Will be amazed if there is not some largish trades later, especialy to show as Late Trades.
With the evaluation being what surely must be a forgone conclusion from all the positive trials/results on record this must be a share to be in. What more evidence of the CardioQ viability is required? It's not rocket science.
So if the NHS advisory group get their finger out, the next 6 months should be very productive indeed.
Still being patient, but frustration begining to take over.

greekman--------know what you mean, I almost sold out for the same reason, but DEMG must be a share with a future so I did the opposite on friday and bought more, however I did get fed up waiting for LEAD and sold them and the very disappointing APN (sizeable loss on APN). Also back in on AHT.
2517

THE COUNT--->ALL

Heads up pussycats.....an interesting site has gone live.

Maybe, just maybe, all the quiet and diplomatic work by companies like DEMG and other interested parties are beginning ot bear fruit. The pressure must now really be on for this technology to be adopted in the NHS.

Take a look at this site.....

http://www.technologyadoptionhub.nhs.uk/

It's just recently gone live.

If you then click on the news section and then on the news article dated 3-10-07, you should see mention of our very own Ewan Phillips, FD of DEMG.

I am currently browsing through the website to see what else may be lurking therein.

Oh, fuck it. I've posted the link anyway so here is a copy of the article....



NHS National Technology Adoption Hub - National Launch Event

The NHS National Technology Adoption Hub formally launched in Manchester on Friday 28 September 2007.

The world's first National Technology Adoption Hub for healthcare has been unveiled in Manchester.

The Technology Adoption Hub is aimed at helping the NHS better implement new cost-effective, life-saving technologies. Hosted by the Central Manchester and Manchester Children's University Hospital Trust, it will take up 15 innovative medical technologies over the next three years, and examine how they can be put into practice in the quickest, most effective way to improve NHS productivity.

Margaret Parton, CEO of the National Technology Adoption Hub, unveiled the Hub to over 150 leading clinicians, NHS managers, academics and representatives from the medical technology industry at an event at Manchester's Whitworth Art Gallery. The Hub is supported by Professor Lord Ara Darzi, who is currently leading a whole-scale review of the NHS: "Schemes such as the National Technology Adoption Hub shows the extent of the innovation and development within the NHS. It is encouraging to see the NHS continually striving to find the best standards of care, using the latest available techniques, for its patients."

Margaret Parton also confirmed the Hub's commitment to aiding the roll-out of crucial innovations in medical technology: "It is vital that new life-saving, cost-effective technologies are adopted as quickly as possible through the NHS. The National Technology Adoption Hub will streamline and speed up the process for the benefit of patients and the NHS as a whole."

The three technologies to be reviewed in the first wave of the Hub project are: Deltex Medical's CardioQ Oesophageal Doppler monitoring machine, the CT3000 Non-Invasive Bladder Analysis for Men manufactured by Mediplus and the 12 Lead ECG Telemedicine GP Programme developed by Broomwell Healthwatch*. All three products are proven, cost-effective measures that have delivered real benefits to trusts and patients where implemented, and could transform the standards of care up and down the country.

Ewan Phillips, Managing Director of Deltex Medical, commented: "We are delighted that the CardioQ has been selected for the first wave of the new National Technology Adoption Hub. If rolled out across the NHS, we believe it could lead to savings of 500 million a year."

James Urie a Director of Mediplus commented: "The CT3000 is an effective, non-invasive procedure that provides an accurate diagnosis, saving the NHS - and patients - time, inconvenience and money." The Telemedicine GP Programme offers similar benefits in primary care: "We can provide immediate verbal ECG reports to GPs with written reports following a few minutes later, thanks to our extremely portable device, which can be used either in the surgery or at the patient's home," said Broomwell Healthwatch Chief Executive Joshua Rowe.

The Technology Adoption Hub will work with host trusts to review adoption of the technologies and gain greater understanding of the challenges and benefits of adoption at a component level, a local systems and whole systems level, across the NHS and beyond the NHS to social services and employment.

To find out more about the National Launch Event, please click on the 'Events' tab.



Regards and happy reading,

THE COUNT!

Ticking up nicely last couple of days.
The government is pushing everything at the moment, so the time scale re the CardioQ project might be shorter than we think.
And yes I have altered my mind re my previous comment," Don't hold your breath for a result"
Labour are pushing for votes, so they will be looking for good news to release whenever possible, re the NHS among others.
As previously said, with all the papers already published, how much more research into the CardioQ can there be.
Lets hope procrastination is not the order of the day.

THE COUNT--->GREEKMAN

I don't believe it. This thread goes dead and then we both end up posting around the same time. Hope you haven't missed the post I just made before yours.

You should find it of some interest.

Kalon Savvadokiriakon, re goumbarre. :-)

Regards,

THE COUNT!

The Count,

Great minds as they say. No I didn't miss your post, as I saw it straight after I posted mine. Very interesting, the futures looking brighter than its been for a long time. Would buy more but don't wish to overstretch Deltex in my portfolio.

THE COUNT--->ALL

It looks as if we have finally made the BBC news at long last. Maybe there is an ever brightening light at the end of our tunnel.

Regards,

THE COUNT!


http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/7029722.stm

NHS to speed up technology use

A scheme to speed up the introduction of cutting-edge technology in the NHS has been launched.

The NHS has long been criticised for being slow to adopt new gadgets.
Around 15 life-saving technologies will be introduced over three years, including a blood flow monitor which could save the NHS 500m a year.

The NHS Technology Adoption Hub, based in Manchester, was set up after an advisory group found innovations were not reaching patients.

The Healthcare Industries Task Force, set up to promote better use of medical technology within the NHS, concluded three years ago that better promotion was needed for new ideas.

In 2005, the Health Select Committee warned the NHS was lagging behind many other countries in the take-up of modern equipment and spent less than the European average on medical technology.

One of the devices to be looked at under the new programme - the CardioQ Oesophageal Doppler machine - monitors the amount of blood circulating in patients undergoing major surgery.

It tells doctors if the patient needs additional fluid, helping them to recover much more quickly after the operation.

The Hub is also looking at a machine to diagnose whether men with an enlarged prostate would benefit from surgery.

An ECG machine which can be used by GPs in their practice and the results read remotely by experts, reducing the need for patients to attend hospital clinics, is also being introduced.

Barriers

Each technology will be implemented in three trusts before adoption is encouraged across the whole of the NHS.

Margaret Parton, head of the National Technology Adoption Hub said all the technologies chosen had been proven to be effective but for some reason most people did not have access to them.

"It is vital that new life-saving, cost-effective technologies are adopted as quickly as possible through the NHS.
"The National Technology Adoption Hub will streamline and speed up the process."

She said individual trusts were nervous about taking the "risk" of buying expensive equipment that wouldn't be used.

"One of the biggest issues is that adopting new technology is very disruptive - what we're doing is breaking down those barriers and supporting trusts."

Health minister Lord Ara Darzi, who is also a practising surgeon, said: "It is encouraging to see the NHS continually striving to find the best standards of care, using the latest available techniques, for its patients."

Richard Phillips, a spokesman for the Medical Technology Group, a campaign body, said he hoped the Hub would speed up the process.

"Medical technologies are going through several different appraisal channels, including the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence, yet even when approved they are not being widely used in the NHS.

"It simply takes too long for new developments to be taken up for use in the NHS. This Hub has the potential to change that."

He added there were some "serious challenges" in getting already approved technologies implemented more quickly and consistently across the NHS.
Story from BBC NEWS:

The Count,

Nice article. Shame the sp didn't open higher today. No trades as yet either.
Although a steady tick up last week what this share really needs to get it moving is a bloody good jolt from one of those heart shock (defibrillator) thingies.
Trying not to allow heart to rule head, but within a couple of years I can see pundits looking back at this share and stating that it was one of the market investment bargains of 2007.

I agree: patience is what we need - as patients will surely benefit from the CardioQ. Wherever the it's been trialled, it's always been successful.

Level 2 is all up today so maybe the sp will start to reflect the value of this company. I'm holding on to my shares.

nice news re NHS
surely a re-rating now beckons?

Suddenly burst into life.
2517