barclays will ge coming out with trading update on 07.05.2009 It is expected to report profits higher than market expectations.

A good Buy Medium to Long term

I believe I am correct in saying div is 1.5p. Ex-divi date 24th Feb '10.

encouraging growth in TBV to 337p, strong start to year for trading also - mirrors comments from CS, DBK on investment banking.

divi not much, but more important is the ongoing capital recovery, so not too bothered. Plenty of time for divis in a couple of years...

upgrades likely, can see stock back towards 330p

Size of derivative exposure on both sides of balance sheet continuing to fall is the most encouraging sign for me, but still a long way to go and I would favour a split out of the investment banking arm.

Partridge,

Where do you obtain the information on Derivatives of BCL and other shares from?

If you have the Web site I would be grateful if you would Cut and paste it.

Fred. I am a tech dinosaur, but I do like looking at numbers. The derivatives figures for assets included in the "Consolidated Summary Balance Sheet" figures reported today showed as 985Billion/417 Billion for end of 2008 and 2009 respectively and for liabilities 968/403Billion respectively. Figures still eye-wateringly large, but they do seem to be getting a grip. Notice they also slipped in a 371M credit for cutting back on defined benefit pension scheme (which basically applies to those not earning Barcap bonuses), but that pension scheme still shows large deficit. Not out of the wood yet imo, but I continue to hold.

Looking good if 3 holds.

Gone ex-divi today, so a slight sp correction not unexpected.

Not in the forward diary, glad I only sold small amount yesterday at 313p.

A bank report I received in my inbox:www.uk-analyst.com

John Varley and Bob Diamond appear to have exercised nil cost options today and subsequently sold some of the shares acquired. Price quoted for Varley at 347.9p but Diamond sold two lots at 715.42p and 733p respectively. Can anyone explain? - I would love to get that price for mine!

partridge suggest you read the RNS released by BARC which fully explains the sp used by their trustees.

I have read it, but don't understand and am willing to be educated. Take the deal where he sold 371,079 shares to satisfy withholding liabilities. One RNS (14.01) says sold at 715.422p, whereas the full RNS (12.10) says that was the award price. Am I misreading the 14.01 RNS or is it just badly written and they mean the exercise price was 715.422p, without disclosing what he sold them for?

suggest you study notes 1-3 at the end of BARC's RNS, do not be confused by the price paid by the trustees to satisfy the terms of the share purchase sheme.

Thank you. Note 2 says the price at which sold to meet withholding liabilities etc is 347.9031p, which makes sense to me, unlike the 14.01 RNS!

RNS usually more reliable than BFN which sometimes is incomplete and as a result inaccurate.

@380 looks fairly key. I sold 75% of mine today, so it should power through with ease :-)

Assuming you are in profit, I would have done the same. Election time coming + possible market correction. Seems to me to be the right move.

Interim Management Statement.

Performance Summary


Profit before tax up 47% to 1,820m
Excluding movement on own credit and gains on acquisitions and disposals, underlying profit before tax up 90% from 957m to 1,822m
Income up 4% to 8,065m despite the continued impact of liability margin compression
Positive net income:cost jaws of 4%
Impairment down 35% to 1,508m relative to Q1 2009 (2,309m) and down 19% relative to Q4 2009 (1,857m) with a loan loss rate of 112 basis points compared to 131 basis points for the first three months of 2009 and 152 basis points for the last three months of 2009
Total credit market writedowns of 141m (2009: 2,613m)
Earnings per share up 35% to 9.3p (2009: 6.9p)
First quarter dividend of 1p per share
Growth of 8% in risk weighted assets since year end to 415bn. Core Tier 1 ratio of 9.8%
Continued strengthening of Group liquidity pool to 152bn
Gross new lending balances to UK households and businesses up 16bn during Q1 2010, including 7bn relating to the acquired Standard Life Bank
Customer deposits in Global Retail Banking, Barclays Corporate, Barclays Wealth and Absa increased 5% to 259bn from the year end

Broker note from Seymour Pierce:
"Barclays Capital PBT is +62% to 1.5bn, although that was driven by a reduction in credit writedowns. Top line income at Bar Cap was actually down -26% on Q1 last year to 3.8bn. Given the strong results elsewhere in the sector, this may be seen as disappointing.
We are sceptical about continued growth at Barclays Capital. At the FY Barclays suggested that reform of investment banking should be based on science, rather than rhetoric. But science long ago renounced attempts to create a perpetual motion machine, to create energy out of nothing and to square a circle. FICC bankers, on the other hand, have worked hard to perpetuate the scientific nonsense of everlasting, compounding growth. Behind the sterile equations of modern finance, is the stench of medieval alchemy, lead into gold, debt into wealth. Our recommendation is SELL, TP 276p."

Another opinion from Credit Suisse:
"We thought certain market estimates were toppy, but this will disappoint everyone with revenues down 26% on Q1 2009. The weak performance was driven by FICC revenues down 38% versus an average decline of 10% seen at other banks so far. It again suggests that Q1 and Q2 2009 were exceptional periods, and that a quarterly run-rate of 3.5-4bn is more normal. With full year consensus (and us) at around 17bn, we think there is scope for a 2bn downgrade in 2010E. However, the cost to net income ratio was just 58% in the quarter, implying that our cost forecast of 9bn might be around 500m too high as well.
Credit market writedowns and impairment forecasts are already fairly low in 2011, potentially providing less offset to lower Barclays Capital estimates. The risk is pronounced by the performance of the non-Barclays Capital businesses where pre-provision profits appear to have stagnated at around 1.5bn per quarter.
Conclusion: This is a disappointing statement, in our view. We believe consensus forecasts for 2010 are safe, but 2011 is more vulnerable (several commentators are forecasting over 10bn PBT). The RWA figure is also disappointing particularly given existing concerns on Basel 3 and CCR RWA. Lack of dividend growth might also trouble some, although we suspect the group will effect its progressive dividend strategy through the Q4 dividend. The saving grace remains the valuation. We believe TNAV at March 2010 was around 330p putting the shares on just 1.1 times historic equity. Furthermore, the group continues to improve its already strong liquidity position through the issue of 17bn of medium term notes in Q1 2010 (more than the maturities expected in the whole of 2010)."