.

KEEP an EYE

SQZ 10.25p ( 10 - 10.50p )

Supper results for a small company with market cap below £30M made profits and positive cash flows after net impairment provisions of US$8.2 million. Cash of $26M ( £16M ) Positive spread, bid price bullish 171K v 40K
note - Company assets of 4.2 million barrels is currently being valued by the market at around £10 million ( market cap after cash balance )

Lets put some charts to see it properly

2nd cup & handle being formed on the last 18 month, now on the handle process as the CUP has already being done.

10.875p +0.375p

Moving higher

I found very strange the way the share price is moving up, by the trades at LSE ( 2 small )
A change on the order book at 8.26am, on the Price and MMs.
PEEL the largest MM with 100K went up at that time at 10.25 an higher bid also at 10.50p with 55K , but no trades at that time

ISDX market for SQZ

Serica Energy made its first profit since 2009, so why are the shares down? -
Proactive Investors -- 19 Apr 2016 - 16:17

As the company hailed strong results for 2015, investors had eyes on problems that threaten the performance for the current financial year.
An oil platform in the UK North Sea
In 2016 Erskine produced more than 40% more oil than forecast.
Given the strong set of financial results unveiled by Serica Energy Plc (LON:SQZ) this morning it would be easy to assume investors would be as happy as a pig in the proverbial, but, instead the stock fell nearly 20% on Tuesday Morning.

At the same time as the rest of the sector bemoans the industry wide downturn, forced by collapsing crude prices, Serica saw a significantly better than expected performance from a newly acquired North Sea asset.

But all may not be as rosy as the headline numbers might suggest.

Changing hands at 10p Serica's AIM quoted shares were down about 10% by midday, having seen as low as 9.65p earlier today.

Here we take a look at the key points from Serica’s financial results.

Erskine outperformance delivers bumper financials for 2015
An 18% stake in the Chevron operated Erskine field, located off the Aberdeen coastline, was acquired from BP (LON:BP.) by Serica in June 2015.

In 2016 Erskine produced more than 40% above forecast, and moreover the cost of production was significantly below budget.

Net production to Serica averaged 3,000 barrels oil equivalent per day over the second half of 2015, versus a forecast of 2,100 boepd. The cost of production dropped below US$20 per barrel compared with expectations for US$30 per barrel.

The field contributed Serica’s positive US$7.6mln operating cashflow, and gross profit of US$16.1mln.

Overall, Serica reported a US$6.5mln profit after tax, after a US$8.2mln provision for impairments.

The company ended 2015 with some US$21.6mln of cash, up from US$5.4mln when it completed the Erskine deal. No near-term capital expenditure is programmed for the assets within group’s current portfolio.

Porcine problem for Erskine: A blockage threatens 2016’s performance
In mid-March, Serica warned investors that first quarter production volumes from the Erskine field in the North Sea would be below expectations following a pipeline blockage.

A foam cleaning device, called ‘a pig’, became stuck in a pipeline during essential maintenance operations.

It added that output volumes would be dependent upon how quickly the field can be restarted, though chairman Tony Craven Walker said he expected the ‘strong performance’ would resume once the problem was sorted.

At that time, Serica believed the field would restart by mid-April. Unfortunately that’s not the case.

In Tuesday’s results the company told investors that further issues relating to the build-up of wax deposits around the blockage had inhibited the recovery of the ‘pig’. It added that progress is now being made clearing the blockage, but, it may still take several more weeks.

The delay then runs into a planned two-month maintenance period for the Lomond system - a BG operated field through which Erskine's crude is transported - so the restart could now slip into the summer months.

Tony Craven Walker says Serica remains ‘considerably stronger’ than before
In today’s results statement the Serica chairman said: "The Erskine field has exceeded our expectations since its acquisition in June last year, already making a significant contribution to Group cashflow and profits.

“This has improved our financial resilience leaving us better able to handle issues such as the current production suspension”

He added: “Serica is considerably stronger than it was a year ago, notwithstanding the headwinds of the past 18 months which have had a dramatic effect throughout the industry.

“We must now maintain momentum into 2016 and believe the current climate combined with the fact that we have cash resources and no debt or material commitments, places Serica in a strong position to create further value."

City brokers see Erskine catching up when production resumes
Referring to the impact of the Erskine down-time in a note, Peel Hunt analyst Werner Riding said: “there will be a short-term impact on forecast production and revenues, however we anticipate that subsequent production restart will give strong flush production which could offset some of the lost volumes in 1H16, thereby limiting the overall full year impact.”

As he retained a ‘buy’ recommendation for the stock, the analyst also highlighted comments in the outlook statement which point to efforts by the company to identify additional production asset acquisitions.

Here, Riding says the company’s objective is to diversify the production base and to efficiently utilise Serica’s accrued tax losses.

“Timing on any potential future transaction clearly remains uncertain, however with a significantly strengthened balance sheet, in our view Serica's ability to consider deals of increasing scale that would help build a more robust production base has improved markedly,” he added.

Elsewhere, in another note SP Angel highlighted said: “The last year’s results (out today) have underlined just how much progress the company has made in what has been strong headwinds.

“That said, the company is entering a transition phase, one in which it starts to have increasing flexibility to pursue a wider consolidation strategy with its cash flow.”

The broker highlighted that Serica must “reset its mind-set and repeat the progress it has made”.

It added: “the company is in a good position, and it's owners should not only be happy with the progress that has been made, but the outlook for its future.”

A few good large buy trades and bid gone to 11.75p ( with good support size )

DEPTH ( no. trades ) 13 v 9

------------------
read what you want but someone says ......

"rumours in the city of potential acquisitions"
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Lovely chart

The game is on as the ... RISING with Volume is happening

the move is on and at this rate we need to keep a close eye on the BREAKOUT

When you say 'we' is that you and your hamster?

Blackdown is a BASTARD ...............
...... if the rest of you did not know it yet

I am making money the Bastard is swallowing it ( cat that ate the canary )
a dangerous predator or maybe a better name a STALKER

13p +0.50p

Looking good already as after a couple trades the "AT" was activated and the 13p offer has gone, there was 2 MMs by the way also gone at that price
The BREAKOUT is on since late yesterday is working according to the chart I made 10 days ago.

Just now there was a 1 share traded, a code the MM use to each other

the (1 share) usually is news on the way....

09:32:31
12.935p
1

after the recent retracement 61.8%, the level 2 is weak today a good opportunity to get the stock on size and good price.

Strong order book and bid price 11p as there is a 200K trade
spread 11 v 11.50p

Are any of those assets for sale on the SQZ list of interest ?


Royal Dutch Shell Plc is in talks with potential buyers for some North Sea assets, mostly fields it got this year as part of the record acquisition of BG Group Plc, according to people familiar with the matter.

The Anglo-Dutch energy giant has been in talks with companies including privately held chemical producer Ineos Group AG and Neptune Oil & Gas, set up by former Centrica Plc chief Sam Laidlaw, the people said, asking not to be identified as the information is private. Shell is seeking to sell a package of assets and is talking with companies to gauge their interest before a formal sale process is launched, the people said. No final decision has been made and Shell may decide to retain the properties, they said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-19/shell-said-to-start-talks-with-buyers-for-north-sea-asset-sales

Peel Hunt reaffirms buy on Serica Energy PLC (LON:SQZ) target 17p (from 13p).

KEEP an EYE

SQZ 12.25p ( 12 / 12.50p )

Yesterday's large volume and rising was the point of BREAKOUT on the way, already said here 3 month ago. Order book strong on the bid side 16 v 10. Cash of $26M ( £16.5M ) Company assets of 4.2 million barrels is currently being valued by the market at around £11 million ( market cap after cash balance )

BREAKOUT

13.25p +0.75p

Going places once again, and a follow through of the last couple days, at this point has broken the last Intraday high 13p end of April

The larger trades are now moving in

Time Trade -- Price --- Volume --- Value
11:23:57 --- 13.48 --- 117,834 -- £15.88k
11:19:36 --- 13.3649 -- 52,331 -- £6,994
11:11:22 --- 13.3649 -- 50,000 -- £6,682

SQZ 13.75p +1.25p

Keeping the spread large since 12pm but after a few more large trade has gone to 13.50 v 14p with some good size volume very important on the way up to 17p

A 100K buy has shaken the MMs and from 13 v 13.50p has gone to 13.25 v 13.75p
the offer price was marked down till buyers were willing to buy large

11:13:40
13.2901p
100,000
13.29k