New Projects and good prospects. will be the winner in 2004. IMO
25p in early 2004

This item was posted on another BB after last weeks oilbarrel.com conference:

One new piece of news coming out of the conference for me is that Petroceltic will drill the Sidi Toui well at sole risk. I remember when I first looked at PCI that it wasn't clear whether Sidi Toui would be sole risked or drilled via farm-in. Oilbarrel reported on 10/12/03 that "Petroceltic is thinking it might sole risk the project" But in the oilbarrel 02/07/04 article about the conference:

"Craven said the company had received a number of approaches from companies looking to farm-in to its Ksar Hadada licence in southern Tunisia, home to the 400 million barrel Sidi Toui prospect and a number of look-alike structures. Craven told investors, however, that Petroceltic will hold onto its stake for now. The well will drill to 1,400 metres at a cost of US$2 million and we can absorb that on our own, said Craven. We plan to drill it and keep the equity going forward because we believe we will get better value for it later on.


Clearly the decision to sole risk the Sidi Toui well shows confidence. Was this previously known? If so where?

PCI's prospects are excellent, hence why Gartmore and now Fidelity have both upped their stakes over the past couple of weeks. If Sidi Toui fulfils just half its potential we will be quids in. What will also help to fuel the share price is the current crisis affecting several major producers.

Iraq's oil production has again been disrupted and Yukos who account for 20% of Russia's oil exports is on the brink of being declared bankrupt. This has all happened when demand for oil is at an all time high. India and China are both expanding rapidly and have added to the pressure on oil stocks. Terrorists have stepped up their attacks within Saudi Arabia and the USA is becoming convinced that the world is too reliant on Middle East oil supplies. As a result spot prices jumped again on Friday and seem set to go much higher. This may be bad for the world's economy but will focus attention on those companies that have most to gain, i.e. small to medium sized oil producers/ explorers. Which ones will rise the most is anyones guess, so spread your risk into PRE, EEN, CPI or whatever you may fancy. Good luck!

From PCI's website:
World class petroleum systems across the region from Algeria through Egypt. Significant remaining potential. Majors increasing investment. Proximity to European Markets.

Petroceltic has signed its first licence in North Africa The Ksar Hadada block in Southern Tunisia

The Ksar Hadada Block
Area: +7,000 sq km on shore
Location: Southern Tunisia adjacent to Libyan Border
Term: 10 years Exploration
Life of field Production
Contract: Production sharing
Petroceltic Interest: 100% working (95% Net)
Hydrocarbon Plays:
1. Ordovician Fractured Quartzite (Sidi Toui appraisal prospect)
2. Triassic

General Comments
The principal Hydrocarbon objective is the Ordovician Fractured Quartzite. This is now the most important objective is Southern Tunisia with three new discoveries (Anadarko and ENI) in 2003.

Within the Ksar Hada Block oil has already encountered in the Ordovician in the Sidi Toui well. However it was drilled in the 1950s without subsurface seismic data and when drilling/completion techniques to exploit fractured reservoirs did not exist. Seismic data acquired in the 1980s demonstrated that the Sidi Toui well was located down-dip to a significant structure. This structure is some 35kms. long and has the potential for reserves of 400mmbbls.

Strategy/ Plans
Drill the Sidi Toui structure in Q3/2004

Three large 300,000 trades appeared after 4.00PM. It is quite uncanny the way these always seem to turn up with this stock towards the close of business. We have seen this over recent weeks after which we've learned that either Gartmore or Fidelity have increased their holdings. Are we wrong to assume that they are still accummulating stock?

Morning Grevis,

Interesting note about the trades after 4.00PM. Hopefully it was Gartmore or Fidelity buying in again. I hope the Fool debate was of interst to you, it certainly was to me. SEY also up again this morning.

Read this bit from Oilbarrel and the conference last week:

A good model for Black Rock to follow might be that of Petroceltic International, which has also undertaken a successful transformation in the past six months. The ex-mining outfit is today one of the most exciting exploration companies in the sector.

We are the e side of E&P, managing director John Craven told delegates. We are an exploration driven company.

Investors have responded to the Petroceltic story, with the London share price climbing from 2p in November to more than 10p in June. The share price has not gone up by magic, said Craven. Its because we put in the activity and continuous news flow.

A chief driver of this success has been Petroceltics Tunisian acreage. Describing Tunisia as north Africa for beginners, Craven said the company had received a number of approaches from companies looking to farm-in to its Ksar Hadada licence in southern Tunisia, home to the 400 million barrel Sidi Toui prospect and a number of look-alike structures.

Looking good for PCI.

gavdfc: Thanks, that's excellent!

From what I've read on the Fool, it would seem that PCI did one of the best presentations out of the 5. Quite a lot of positive talk over on that board regarding PCI. I've been reading that board for quite a while and looked back over the posts for a few months, and talk re PCI just seemed to get better and better. Not going to get carried away re PCI, but i do think the potential is there.

From another BB:

The Sidi Toui was valued at 41p in the June
presentation:

http://www.petroceltic.ie/pub/June_30_2004.pdf

Just had a look at the other oil explorers such as Burren. They have nothing like the potential reserves like PCI but they are valued at 550mn, about 12x the size of PCI. There is a substantial room for growth here, and a successful drill at Sidi Toui will be indeed a company maker. Keep buying.

I read that as well Grevis. Just had a look again at the presentation slides, I especially like this bit:

Summary
High Impact Projects Underway in Tunisia, Italy & Celtic Sea
2 prospects in Tunisia
2 prospects in Celtic Sea
2 Prospects in Italy
New Projects in the pipeline
Present Market Cap: c.50.0m (9.8p/share)
Potential Value:
Risked: 200 million (41p/share)
Unrisked: 454 million (0.90/share)
+ Italy potential +100 million

And this part also:

Objectives/Strategy
To Grow Petroceltic to a significant Upstream Exploration Oil & Gas
Company with European and North African Assets
Project Requirements:
Large potential (Materiality relative to market cap)
Low risk
Low entry cost
Short lead time
Company Expertise in the area/project (focus)
Value Creation for shareholders

gavdfc: Thanks! Good extract. Have posted it on another BB.

Nice one Grevis. I especially like the part about value creation for shareholders and also to grow PCI to a significant upstream exploration oil and gas company. Reading the part about Italy potential 100m, would that not add another potential 20p to the SP on top of the 41/90p risked unrisked?

gavdfc: One could say it's only money, LOL!

Blimey! Can't take your eyes off the screens for a second. We suddenly have lift off.

Blimey! Can't take your eyes off the screens for a second. We suddenly have lift off.

gavdfc: MMs are buying. Offer has just gone to 12.25p

Superb Grevis!!!! Go out for a bit and come back to this!!! Any reason why Grevis?

gavdfc: It is reckoned that many were holding back hoping the price would ease.

Well doesnt look like the price will be easing back today. If buys keep coming in like this then it should move up again today. Couldnt see any RNS released today.

You never can tell. They've put out a few just lately.

should've topped up this morning.... still worth topping up at this levels as oil price is on the rampage again:



U.S. stock futures lower as crude prices rise
Tue 6 July, 2004 14:21

(Updates futures, adds new comments)

NEW YORK, July 6 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks futures pointed to a lower opening for Wall Street on Tuesday as investors worried about corporate profits following a jump in crude oil prices.

In addition, chip stocks could be under pressure after Conexant Systems Inc., the third-most active stock on the INET electronic brokerage in early trading, lowered its quarterly earnings forecast.

U.S. light crude rose in the first electronic trading since the weekend sabotage attacks on Iraqi oil pipelines cut exports. Crude prices, at $39.21 in New York, are also being pushed higher amid concerns about possible disruptions to Russian and Nigerian supplies.

Crude oil is a component of almost every sector of the economy, including manufacturing and transport, and higher oil prices immediately erode corporate profits.

"I see the markets starting off down because crude oil is down, Weston Boone, vice president of listed trading at Legg Mason Wood Walker in Baltimore said. "Geopolitical events are weighing on the market, and in addition we are starting earnings season -- so the question is will profits be as rosy in the second quarter?"

S&P 500 futures for the September contract fell to 1119.80, or 4.68 points below fair value.

Dow Jones industrial index futures fell 44 points, while Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 12 points.

"The reason why we are down today is the continued unrest in the Middle East and the prospects that energy prices do not seem to decline," John Person, head financial analyst with Infinity Brokerage Services, said.

"After last week's Fed rate hike, higher oil prices and slower economic indicators such as the jobs number will be the real issues investors are faced with right now," Person added.

Democrat John Kerry's decision to appoint North Carolina Sen. John Edwards as his vice presidential running mate was seen as slightly negative for the market.

"I think its probably positive for Kerry which is therefore probably negative for the market ... Wall Street is traditionally a conservative community," Boone said.