.

A lot has been talked about potential flows with no real definition of what permeability there is at Sea Lion.

In general it can be said with reference to oil reservoir rock that :

Poor Permeability 1-10 mD.
Fair Permeability 10-100 mD.
Good Permeability 100-1000 mD.
Excellent Permeability >1000 mD

14-10/5 encountered good average permeability in the range of 100 mD to 200mD with spikes up to excellent permeability at 1000 mD.

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201106010700076329H



Therefore with 79M of net pay in the Main Fan to be flow tested the real risks are purely down to ensuring the velocity of the oil to surface remains constant to prevent waxing. Nothing out of the ordinary its pretty basic stuff.

They have an ESP down there to ensure velocity is constant and is not erratic. This will mean they can keep flow at a constant rate and with the use of insulated (heated) tubing (and any chem. injection) this will eradicate any chance of waxing.

It should be highlighted again and again that the ESP is not down there to pump maximum flow, it is there to give a steady and stable flow so that velocity is constant to therefore enable full control of the oil up the pipe to being flared.

The target is stable flow at 4000 bopd but that is not a cut off, that is simply the target. Lower is fine and commercial, more is great as it will give rise to the need for less development wells hence less capex required.

Also they are only testing a vertical well, which will have lower flow rates than any horizontal well that would be used in future development plans. As was highlighted in the past XEL tested Bentley with a vertical a couple of years back and got 150 bopd. With a horizontal completion recently they got nearly 3000 bopd.

This will be similar to Sea Lion where whatever this vertical flow test produces one can be certain that horizontal completions used in future production wells will flow at multiples of what the vertical result produces. However at this stage where the well will be P&A'd they do not need to drill an expensive horizontal completion to prove it, all they need is the vertical flow data and they can then work out what a horizontal completion would deliver in terms of flow.

Big difference is that one is heavy crude and this is light or medium.

Yes, so if XEL got 150 bopd from a vertical and RKH get around 4000 bopd from a vertical you can see the difference between heavy and medium.

So if XEL got 2900 bopd from the recent horizontal then we can expect on future production wells around 15,000 bopd from RKH.


All we need for now is around 3000 bopd to 4000 bopd from this vertical well test.

Starting to move.

I really would not expect news until Monday 20th earliest.

IF the flow test started yesterday it would run for 24 hours, then it would be shut down for 24 hours to measure pressure build up and then it would be flowed again for another 48 hours.

So thats 4 days, and 4 days from Tuesday = Saturday.

So news should be next week sometime, all being well. Might not be Monday as they might want to make further measurements and data checks.

long time to hold your breath!

Nice fathers day prezzy though....

One of the rare steady risers.....

A big jump in shorts in Thursday, not surprising given market weakness and Greece, but shorts jumped upwards by an additional 400K by Thursday close - meaning a large lump of Thursdays volume was purely shorters.

This is the chat to Thursday close



.

Any rumours...leaks anyone ?....flow tests must be on going as we speak...any news from our man on the rig ?....

Post from the main man on III


EXTREMELY CONFIDENT

Hi,

Just as above says, I was confident before about the results of this test - but i'm upgrading that to a ridiculously EXTREME confidence fyi. EXTREMELY!!

Cheers,
By gclark25

and wtf does he know!

Do any of us!!

no we don't; hence my comment

meanwhile, as far as I can see, there is only serious buying interest around 260/261 ..... bids above that are fairly small

He knows more than you or I cynic.

!

http://contrarianinvestoruk.squarespace.com/posts/2011/6/20/rockhopper-flow-test-looks-like-it-wont-disappoint.html

is that because he says so lol!
my gut feeling is that RKH will indeed bring home the bacon, but having been slugged too often of late and the markets being a disaster, i am manfully resisting the temptation to top up
my holding is currently quite modest, but if the news is indeed good, then there'll still be plenty of time and headroom to add at that juncture

bring home the bacon , is that kosher ? lol

you get both kosher and halal bacon, though how the customers are meant to know what it should taste like is a moot point! .... a bit like vegetarian chicken

I hope those who do the deathly deed have a chance to have their throats cut and bleed to death at some stage in their life.,.