I suspect trading tomorrow will probably answer this conundrum, but I know there are some far wiser owls than me that contribute to this bb & I would be interested in their opinions.

My question is this: the chart below looks to me like a pullback of the uptrend (ie when it went north through 14.00) however I am unsure as it has now broken down through 14.00 whether this is trending up or down :-(

So what do you think - up or down, or should I just flip a coin :-)) ?

Perhaps I'll look at BA. instead (ex divi next week).

There's an interim management statement from Man Group expected on Tuesday. The investment manager has seen its key hedge fund performing less well than expected of late, leaving it unable to charge performance fees, as its returns have failed to reach the necessary minimum levels. There has been a bit of a run on funds under management as a result.

But only last month the firm reiterated its stance on sticking to its bumper 11% dividend, even though it is not covered by earnings. Clearly, that can only be maintained if its investments start hitting the necessary heights again, and that needs to start happening fairly soon -- but even if it needs to be slashed by half, it would still be a decent return.

I believe that with funds like AHL, the meaty performance fees are only charged on outperformance of it's benchmark once it rises above the High Water Mark. The fund has struggled to rise above it's 2008 levels. To be fair, many of it's peers have also struggled over the period (the orange line in the chart below is an index of "managed futures" hedge funds, of which AHL is one).



Man Group also has a more diversified range of funds in its GLG products ($26 billion AUM - more than AHL), which include traditional long only funds, and also there's Man Groups multi manager business.

RNS e200M debt repurchase.

This has reached rock bottom maybe as low as 95p imo.

Watch that man

Hedge fund manager, Man Group , stumbled again, sliding 7.9 to 99.6p as assets at its AHL Diversified fund slipped last week.

I feel it could fall to 50p if it does it could be a target.

60p would be a 90% drop.

I thought you were confident that 95p was the bottom mitzy? Had my finger over the 'Buy' button until you had second thoughts!!!

I did Harry..

where is the line in the sand.

I bought BA. in the end.

Much more buys than sells.

sub 95p..gulp.

Current yield is now 11.12% - am I missing something obvious here, or is it going to tank after Wednesday's XD?

Yes, but you have to choose which route to go. Divi or no divi. Assuming you take the divi, how long will you have to wait until the sp recovers? Long term investment for me, so may well add after the divi, which I see as a win, win situation.

IS THIS CHEAP OR WHAT. I AM GOING IN, HERE GOES.

What is our ambition for the future?
To earn a place in every investor’s portfolio

AGM 1MAY 2012

From post 493 - But only last month the firm reiterated its stance on sticking to its bumper 11% dividend. Why the high dividend ?

These and FGP are doing my head in today - I want to short (again) FGP but .... I used to be indecisive and now I'm not so sure.

Note from Citigroup:
"Capacity constraints. AHL hit $25bn AUM in Mar 08, and has since struggled to deliver returns. We believe performance has been constrained by AUM scale.
AHL. With AHL down -4% year to date we reduce EPS forecasts by 15% 2012E and 43% 2013, and our target price from 150p to 100p, to reflect a triple mwhammy: 1) Worse than expected returns, slower fund flow recovery; 2) Lower performance fee earnings, greater dividend risk; 3) Negative rebalancing (NR), lower profitability. NR reduced highest margin guaranteed product AUM by $1.6bn in Q4 2011. We forecast a further -$0.6bn Q1 and -$0.4bn Q2 2012.
Margin pressure. Guaranteed fund outflows continue, and we forecast a spike in 2013. Because it is high margin, this offsets forecast strong recovery in GLG fund flows, and so we actually forecast no growth in 2013 underlying EPS.
Key man risk. Lock ups for GLG principals expire Oct 2013, with 1/3 shares free this October. Departure of key individuals is a risk to GLG recovery longer term.
Dividend cut. Man has affirmed 22c DPS for 2012. But we forecast it will cut to 14c in 2013 due to low performance fee EPS, and lack of underlying EPS growth.
Valuation / Risk. Putting 2013E EPS on 11.3x (10 yr average) gives 101p, which supports our new 100p price target. At 18.3x 2013E management fee EPS Man is at the lower end of its 3 year range. But we now rate the stock High Risk to reflect sensitivity to AHL returns, and our concern that PE could de-rate further.
Historical PE ranges suggest a support level at ~80p per share.