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Looks like a gravestone doji on ARM

from investor inteligence.

UK Chart of the Day: 7 January 2011
Chart of the day: A counter-trend idea in ARM..
ARM Holdings soared over the past few sessions on potential sales upgrade.*

Prices jumped from 440p to a high of 535p yesterday, before pulling back sharply, leaving in its wake an extended legged candle. Such long upper tail is a sign of buying exhaustion. As such, chasing after ARM is not advised now.

In fact, a speculative short may be put on to bet on a consolidation back to 430p. The stock is currently (1) short-term oversold, (2) far from the moving average, and (3) aiming to cover the gap at 430p. Stop at 510p.

Chris, re MTO.

Golden crosses tend to be bullish signals, 50 MA crossing above 200 MA whilst both heading up. Having said that I have noticed on quite a few stocks the SP tends to gravitate towards the MAs once the signal has been completed (the most recent being NOP) before resuming the previous trend. Secret of trading the signal would therefore appear to be, wait for the retracement to the MA support, then go long. The same strategy also works quite well for the dead cross.

ptholden - Cheers, advice appreciated.

Re post 492. Fair disclosure

Another strong day here - following very closely as my larger holding is in DPL. Probably not too late to top up here...

Lupus Capital doing the business for me today. chart looks fine.

Well done on Lupus - I remember looking at these (not that long ago) when they were pennies - and a certain Greg Hutchins was involved.

Cheers Skinny, STJ worth ahving a look at........

STARlight: St James's Place
Wed, 12/01/2011 - 00:00 | John Mulligan

Recent price: 279p | Actual PER: 34.0 | Ind Div Yield: 1.8%

Business background

This week, the STAR filters have thrown up the wealth management group St James's Place (STJ) as appearing attractive in terms of medium-term earnings growth combined with a low valuation.

I have to say that the appearance of an insurance-based share creates problems from the viewpoint of analysis, as insurance companies manage to get away with producing extremely opaque results that make it very difficult for outsiders to get behind the headline figures.

The difficulty is that none of the listed insurance companies provide any readily usable data on turnover, the geographical split of their businesses or any detailed breakdown of their investments and borrowings.

As the performance and allocation of their investment portfolios is a key aspect of their business model, this absence of information impedes a full assessment of business potential although some enterprise value information can usually be estimated.

St James's Place is a provider of insurance products, financial services and general wealth management services that are focused on higher net worth clients. The group was set up some 20 years ago as the J Rothschild Assurance Group by Mark Weinberg, Lord Rothschild and his colleague from Hambro Life, Mike Wilson.

In the early days of the company, Weinberg and Wilson recruited top selling financial advisers from their old company and from elsewhere within the UK financial services field. The selected sales people, preferably known as advisers within the group, formed the key St James's customer management partnership team.

In 1997, within some six years of establishment, the group, which was then known as St James's Place Capital, floated on the LSE main market. In 2000, HBOS took a share stake of approximately 60% in the group and this interest has been retained by Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY).

Annual results for 2009

The company's financial year is the same as the calendar year, so the last full-year results relate to 2009.

It is impressive that, in a difficult year, St James' Place managed to raise total funds under management by just over 30%, from 16.3 billion to 21.4 billion and to increase the net inflow of funds by some 35% from 1.7 billion in 2008 to 2.3 billion in 2009. It seems that financial problems at the global and national level combined with increasing market volatility increased the number of clients seeking to shelter under St James's wealth management umbrella.

Growth in new business was also aided by the rise of some 9% in the number of St James's partners advising clients.



However, despite these encouraging business statistics pre-tax profits for the full year actually fell by almost 40% and earnings per share dropped by a trifle more.

Recent results

The most recent results from St James's Place relate to those for the third quarter, released on 2 November 2010.

The company's statement on that date indicated that the third quarter reflected another excellent trading period for the group with the combination of the global recovery in markets added to new business raising the total value of funds under management to 24.8 billion. This represented an increase of approximately 10% in the three month period.

The company also reported the value of single investments in the period amounted to some 1.1 billion, an increase of 32% over the previous year although the growth in single premium pensions was slightly less at 27% in the period.

As at 30 September 2010, the European Embedded Value (EEV) of the group was approximately 320p per share against a share price at that time of 273p.

Outlook for 2011 and beyond

The sustained recovery in equity markets in conjunction with a significant level of global economic and financial uncertainty provides a perfect environment for a wealth management group such as St James's Place.

The group's ability to retain around 95% of their existing clients combined with the growth in sales and advisory staff operating in an environment of equity market recovery suggests that St James' Place will in all probability continue to grow profits and EV over the next year or two.

It seems likely that the EV for the year just ended will nearer 330p than 320p when the next preliminary announcement is made on 24 February. The current relatively low market rating of the group does seem to undervalue the potential given the group's impressive record at building and retaining investment business.

Pros and cons

It is obvious that St James's Place has built up a quality wealth management business over the past couple of decades. However, the stockmarket is not enamoured with insurance based businesses as can be seen by reference to the ratings for the larger groups such as Aviva (AV.), Prudential (PRU) and Standard Life (SL.).

One other aspect is the probability that Lloyds Banking Group will, in due course, be required to sell its 60% stake in the company. To a certain extent, this possibility may have acted as a brake on the St James's Place share price although, on the other hand, the announcement of a decision to sell this large holding would focus attention on the underlying value of the business.

GF, STJ chart not giving much away imho.

Not not really medium term SC but 2008 breakout could be on cards and then it could be rewarding. ive played it going four 290p up and down on several occasions. nice money spinner.

Just look at that horizontal line all way across to 290p. if we get through that what 330p and then 410p. Could be interesing in these markets.

Fingers crossed today mind.

CTT and ABC charts looking ready for pump up last night when I checked them out.

Cheers GF, see what you mean. I'll watch with interest - have added it to my stockwatch.

Ashm and CLF going well for me this morning. Havent bought into ABC or CCT yet. looks volatile out there.

I mentioned these a couple of times in October.

MEC if you carry tops of peaks forward should be looking at 320p or thereabouts.

Nice one skinny.

Just closed HFD for +40.

Well done called that one right for sure skinny.

Interesting....

http://www.investorsintelligence.com/x/marketdataindex.html?op=art&aid=58300