HARRYCAT
- 21 May 2013 12:46
- 5 of 5
Investec comment today:
"We had been over-optimistic in our view that Carnival could produce a solid FY13E outturn post the Carnival Triumph issues (we had assumed net yield growth of 1% for FY13E). Although our outlook beyond FY13E assumes a strong rebound, our PT falls from 2,800p to 2,550p and faith needs to be restored in Carnival‟s ability to improve yields from FY14E.
Earnings guidance reduction. Carnival has reduced its net yield outlook for FY13E, moving from flat guidance to down 2-3%. The Carnival Triumph issue has been compounded by higher cruise cancellations (increased dry-docking), raised selling and administrative costs and inherent operational gearing.
Longer-term outlook. While the FY13E guidance does not necessarily impact the longer-term upside (restrained industry capacity growth, emerging markets growth, US domestic consumer strength, European recovery post-Concordia), the considerable operational gearing within the group (every 100bps of yield move has a c9% impact on earnings) has resulted in a material drop in expected FY13E EPS, with the mid-point of guidance reducing from $1.95 (range $1.80-2.10) to $1.55 (range $1.45-1.65). We have worked though our numbers and, forecasting a 2.3% net yield decline (vs previously above guidance +1.0%), our FY13E EPS moves from $2.15 to $1.62 (PBT drops from $1.67bn to $1.26bn). The impact on FY14E is more muted (EPS $2.52 vs $2.92) as we assume a net yield rebound of +4.2% (emerging markets growth, European increase and US recovery post-Triumph).
Retain BUY on reduced PT. The Carnival bull story has taken a major hit and we look for further detail at the time of Q2 results in late June. In the meantime, our DCF-based PT moves from 2,800p to 2,550p and this leads us to retain our BUY, notwithstanding expected short-term shares weakness."