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Senofi makes a 48.5 Billion Euro offer for Aventis (AVN) Legal & General has unveiled a two percent drop in global new business sales, in line with expectations, and says it expects to gain market share on the back of rising consumer confidence, New business sales for insurance products fell to 886 million pounds from 906 million on an annual premium equivalent basis. Analyst had forecast sales of between 870-917 million pounds with a consensus of 893 million. GWR radio company Group said it was not in talks with Capital Radio after a Sunday newspaper said the firms had entered formal discussions on a merger Irish Life & Permanent Ireland's third-biggest financial company, said it had not held talks over a possible takeover by HBOS countering a newspaper article on Sunday.

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Legal & General FY Sales 875m exp. Vernalis (I), Beale (F), Alterian(I), Scottish Radio Holdings (AGM) Granada Plc (GAA). BonEx Terms are 1 Redeemable for every 13.84 Ordinary shares. Treasury conference on Britain in a Global Economy	American Express (Q4),Texas Instruments (Q4), Altera (Q4), Dover (Q4), Hilton Hotels (Q4), Kimberly-Clark (Q4), McDonald's (Q4), Millipore (Q4), Novellus Systems, Safeco, Schering-Plough, American Standard companies (Q4), Lexmark International (Q4) 15.00 Dec Existing Home Sales 6.1m exp	Santander (F) 07.00 Dec German Import Price Index 0.1% exp

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Good evening all.

Just had a look at the ex-divi's for this week.
What a sorry looking collection. Looks like the schoolkids that
are left at the end, when Team Leaders have 'baggsied' their
players on a cold, wet, school games day.
(Remember those days, all them eons ago?) :-)

Right, get rid of BPK,DTZ,ITE from the start. Way too small and
CMC wouldn't quote prices on them anyway.

That leaves: DVR DXNS FKI ICAP SLY XAN.

Get rid of FKI. It's already spiked up. Moodys are considering a
downgrade to Junk Status because of high debt. Stock is on a
P/E of 55 with a negative PEG. What's it meant to be doing, finding
the Alchemist's Holy Grail? Not worth it for a 1.5p Divi.

Get rid of XAN. It's withdrawing from USA, the divi is only 1p and it
looks like it's about to drop 10p to the 90p support level to me.

That leaves: DVR DXNS ICAP SLY.

SLY: Volume looks a little light to me for decent liquidity and
there were only about 48 trades on Friday afternoon. Recent update
gives declining profits and it's up near yearly highs.

DXNS: UP on yearly highs and divi only 1.66p. Is it worth it?

DVR: Decent divi, 7.7p, but low volume and liquidity again with a
chart pattern that's falling from yearly highs. Drop may be more than
the divi and liquidity could be a problem with getting out without
getting burnt.

ICAP: Nice divi to aim at, 8.5 p, but at over 16 a share the risk/reward
isn't that great for the potential yield involved. Also at yearly highs
and due a 15p drop to retest 1600p.

If you twisted my arm, I might try DVR out of that motley bunch, but I
would probably make more money by buying any of the blue cChip FTSE100
divi payers that takes a hit on market noise.

Not really tempted by any of them.

Look forward to reading other posters views.

Melnibone.

DVR looks a decent punt short term anyone have any views on FFA?

An article on GSK in todays Sunday Times, the IRS have now conducted taped interviews with Paul Girolami with regards to the potential 3bn in back taxes they are claiming, in case he is not still alive once the trial takes place. This may well put some more downward pressure on the share price tomorrow.

Updated 1/23 for Monday's market.
Key DOW Levels for 1/26
UP Above 10,660
DN Below 10,500

Downside Break
Dow breaks consolidation to downside, trends lower to the Close.

From prior commentary, "...The formation of the consolidation at the highs is a positive sign, and implies a continuation higher in the medium term...A downside break from the consolidation, however, is still possible and would likely result in a break back below key resistance..."
The Dow opened the session quietly today and traded sideways within the consolidation boundaries before finally getting a big downside break later in the session, seen in the 15 Minute Chart. The downside break from the consolidation sparked a steady move lower, resulting in a 55 point loss.

Looking at the 60 Minute Chart shows that the index has broken back below resistance at 10,600, which could extend the time that the index spends within the wide, ill-formed trading range, which spans from 10,375 to 10,660.

As mentioned before, the index is very likely to remain within the current overall uptrend that began in late November, seen in the Daily Chart. A downside break of the major lower trend line at 10,500 would cause either a steep sell-off or the formation of a very wide trading range at the highs. Watch 10,500 closely Monday.

Short Term Dow

Short term, the Dow ended the day right at short term resistance at 10,568, seen in the 1 Minute Chart. Watch this level closely, using it as a fulcrum at the Open.

Medium Term Dow

In the medium term, we closed Longs in the market at 10,600, giving us a 40 point gain for the trade. We then entered the market Short at 10,600 and are still in the position. We will continue to hold stops at the entry for Monday's market and will stay Short below 10,500. We will look for Longs above 10,660, with 20 point stops.

NASDAQ & S&P

The NASDAQ and S&P each sold off the day's highs, leading to a steady downtrend the remainder of the session. Each index may now have formed wider trading ranges, which could hold near term action. *

Summary

The Dow got the downside break from the consolidation this morning, which sent the index into a day-long downtrend. Look for a continuation lower if 10,500 is breached Monday. Otherwise, look for continued movement within the given range.

MONDAYS FTSE PP

R2 4506
r1 4483
pp 4461
s1 4438
s2 4416


Close was below Fri pp after gaining 3.9pts in the auction! 2 day chart brk out of downtrend at 4463 targets 4480, if not cont weakness back to 4440!

WEEKLY FTSE PP

R2 4570
R1 4515
PP 4477
S1 4422
S2 4383

For next week i see a pos test of 4420 (lower 3 month TL channel) if dow fails to hold 10600 but more importantly for the longer term 10550, if dow holds these levels and ftse has been over cautious and decides to close the divergence a little, a test of 4500 imho!

joey DVR you want to long for the divi?

Morning all,

Got loads of catching up to do, and lot of chores too! Not going to do much today.

I keep getting e-mails from people who don't post on the bullentin boards. Although I always reply I don't think they are actually receiving them.

The only way I know for sure they will get a reply is if I find them on a thread and reply via the "send a private message" facility. But 9 out of 10 times I can't find a post, and most of the 1 out of 10 I do find, have not updated their user settings so I can "send them a private message".

So I'm not being rude - but if you don't give me a way of replying - I can't!

well looks like thats me done for the day, tgts hit at 80 on gap up now 40 lower tgt, nice ftse range for a change:)

Good for you PB, I was going switch my short FTSE to a long, but it keeps dropping.

I'm trying to remember to actually deal what I think, rather than only one or the other!

Morning all,

Well done TP. I'm having a leisurely start to the day myself.
Still wondering if I'm going to get the 4380/4400 I'm looking for.

As posted last night, DVR seems to be having low volumes.
3 trades already! Lol. I've seen more liquidity in some AIM stocks.

Hope you are right about a nice drop for GSK, Fundamentalist.
Could do with picking some up nice and cheap.

Melnibone.

melnibone-thx, only trading certain hours now, in conjunction with other traders confirming my thoughts i now play the 4.30 to 5.30 move as the Dow can mess about until out close then move, even if it does,nt sometimes if the ftse has been oversold the futs close the gap in this time frame, last 20 sessions has a 75% success rate for a smooth 10/15 point gain using my indicators, have a look at a futs chart for this timeframe!

http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=LFTH04&o=&a=V%3A5&z=610x300&d=medium&b=bar&st=

Above link to fri ftse futs chart, see how Mondays pp tie in nicely with the pp

r2 4475
r1 4456
pp 4437
s1 4418
s2 4399

Melnibone,

little drop on GSK - I am looking to get back in but am still struggling to time it right - if it drops below 1180 that is my current target. Do you also trade Astra Xeneca - any views prior to Thursdays results?

Been over to the Traders room. FKI apparently are going ex div tommorrow (for what is thought is the last time!) Many are going short on this one. DYOR

Hi little woman, not surprised they're shorting FKI.
See my points further up the thread on this one.

Alice in Wonderland price on this stock IMHO.

REf DVR, spread is too wide and liquidity is too low for me.

Ref IAP(ICAP), too close to 1600p and spread none too clever either.

Melnibone.

Hi Fundamentalist,

AZN is nice stock to trade. The price over 26 a share often gives a spread
circa 0.04%.

The current gyrations in the price are fairly volatile. There seems to
be some sort of Bull/Bear battle going on at the moment. Would not
want to get caught the wrong way if one of them wins.:-)

I prefer GSK.

Melnibone

DVR now 2 point spread against 30+ first thing.

Parmalat debt now raised to $14 Billion, nearly as bad as my credit cards after Xmas.

FTSE seems to be moving sideways.

D4F spreads are getting worse again. Can't make up my mind to either stop trading CFD's or move my account.