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St Ives.. Boring Print (SIV)     

garfeebloke - 10 May 2007 14:37

I know it's not the sexiest of sectors, but do any of the technical chartists here think this represents a testing of a significant resistance?
The MDAs seem to offer support. It looks to me like if it could break that line, then a potential line of resistance at about 336 there will be serious upside to follow.
Can this go places?
Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=SIV&Si
Red:25 DMA
Green:50 DMA

mentor - 25 Apr 2016 11:28 - 50 of 70

As it is normal brokers join to bring the share price lower .......

10.37am - Numis Slashes St Ives Forecasts After Profit Warning

mentor - 25 Apr 2016 15:34 - 51 of 70

Some large sells this afternoon 250K, 200K and 250K has got the share moving south and moving under the 120p low of the day
---------------

Read Arden Partners's note on ST IVES, out this morning, by visiting https://www.research-tree.com/company/GB0007689002

"The sensitivity to global marketing budgets combined with the negative headwinds in Marketing Activation and contracting returns within Books have resulted in a 20% cut in our FY17 earnings forecast. We anticipate the group will look to maintain DPS at 7.9p which still affords a reasonable cover above 2x. Whilst the yield may, therefore provide some support, the shock value of a revision to the Strategic Marketing business has undermined confidence in the investment case. Consequently we anticipate the shares will remain subdued short term and feel the price reaction this morning is justified. ..."

mentor - 26 Apr 2016 09:19 - 52 of 70

KEEP an EYE @ 120.75p

After yesterday's large drop looks ready for the bounce. Order book getting strong on the bid side. Latest broker update reduces EPS forecast for 2015/16 from 21.0p to 16.8p but that is a PE of 6, the shares are worth short term 150 to 170p.

Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=SIV&Size=600*450&Skin=GreenRed&Type=3&Scale=0&Cycle=DAY1&Span=MONTH2&OVER=MA(50)&IND=MACD(26,12,9);RSI(14);SlowSTO(14,3,3)&Layout=2Line;Default;Price;HisDate&XCycle=&XFormat=

mentor - 26 Apr 2016 10:47 - 53 of 70

Paying premium for large size 15K offer was 127.50p

10:41:10
128.0497p
15,375

Chart.aspx?Provider=Intra&Code=SIV&Size=Chart.aspx?Provider=Intra&Code=SIV&Size=

mentor - 26 Apr 2016 12:33 - 54 of 70

Lunch time pause after the profit taking or retracement provoke as usual by MMs interfering on the order book.

Intraday retracement at the moment 38.2% spread 125 v 126p
That is a normal intraday Fibonacci retracement after a large rise

Order book is slowly getting strong again on the bid side, so soon will move up again

Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=SIV&Si

mentor - 26 Apr 2016 12:51 - 55 of 70

Yesterday's Talk after the warning FT Alphaville Peel Hunt can walk us through it. The company led with a cautious statement at the interims. The
disruption to marketing booking patterns referred to then has
accelerated in the final part of the year. This has impacted both
the legacy business (not unexpected) but also the Strategic
Marketing operations (which the market will be disappointed to
see). This combined with a process of destocking in books results
in reductions in expectation across all three division. Forecasts
will reduce by 20% for this year and next. The speed at which
fortunes have reversed will disappoint the market, with an
assumption that more pressure will come. We place our target
price and recommendation under review.

Books: The books division is seeing the headwinds of warehousing
reorganisation and a broader destocking. Moreover, the complexity of the PRH
work is greater than expected, and some export work is being lost. Whilst it is
logical to think these issues are one-off in nature and should work through, a level
of uncertainty will remain. There is considerable margin pressure as a result.
Marketing activation: The market will have expected ongoing pressure from the
UK grocery market. Forecasts here had been trimmed in recent months. There
have, however, been significant contract cancellations that have exacerbated the
trend. It is hard to see this issue as a one-off in the same way as the book
destocking.
Strategic marketing: Here the market will be more discomforted. The
previously very strong trends that had more than offset the issues in legacy
businesses have given way to some material contract cancellation. Whilst each
cancellation may have a specific cause, the coincidence of timing is disquieting.
The positive messages from November (clear evidence of collaboration and
benefit, so common ownership) will be tested in these more difficult
circumstance.
Impact on forecasts: The greatest pressure will be seen in Books (profit down a
third), with strategic marketing down just over 10%. Revenue for the full year
will be c£362m vs £372.4m current forecast. EBIT, however, will fall by £7m to
£33m, giving PBT of c£30m (from £37.2m). EPS of 16.8p vs 21.1p. In FY2017,
PBT will be nearer £32m from £41m, giving EPS of c17.3p.
Recommendation: We reduced our recommendation from Buy to Add when the
first cautious statement was issued in the interims. The subsequent fund raising at
215p, which was well supported, will not be forgotten. The broad-based nature
of the warning – with work lost across all divisions – will unsettle the market
more than a single one-off problem. As such, marginal buyers will now take some
time to be convinced this cycle has ended rather than just begun. The reasons we
liked the story before today remain intact, but we anticipate that the execution
will now take longer to validate. TP and recommendation under review.

Numis new forecasts.

Strategic Marketing. Although organic growth has been +15% ytd, the group has experienced greater caution in marketing budgets and has suffered the cancellation and deferral of a number of significant projects. We lower our EBITA forecasts by £3.6m to £20.2m in FY16 and £3.3m to £24.0m in 2017. We view the project deferrals to be a short term issue and expect the division to rebuild over the next 12-18m.
Marketing Activation. Trading conditions in the grocery retail sector have ‘worsened’ leading to revenue and margin pressure. We lower our EBITA forecasts by £2.0m to £8.0m for FY16 and £3.5m to £6.7m for 2017.
Books. Despite securing the PRH contract, St Ives has been impacted by destocking across the market following a reduction in warehouse capacity. We lower our EBITA forecasts by £2.2m to £5.0m for FY16 and by £3.4m to £4.5m in 2017.
Forecasts. We lower our PBT/EPS forecasts by -19% to £30.4m/17.5p (was £38.3m/21.6p) and by -22% to £32.4m/17.8p (£42.5m/23.0p) for 2017. We expect a maintained dividend of 7.80p. We forecast net debt/EBITDA of 2.0x for 2016 and 1.7x for 2017, compared with covenants of 2.50x and 2.25x.
--------------

Why St Ives plc crashed 40% today

Shares in struggling media and print group St Ives (LSE: SIV) slumped by as much as 40% in early trade this morning after the company issued a dire profit warning. Specifically, the company announced today that due to deteriorating market conditions, management expects reported profit for the current financial year will be “materially below” current market expectations. What’s more, management believes that the current trading conditions will also impact the group’s next financial year, indicating that St Ives’ troubles are quite serious.

A severe deterioration in trading

According to today’s press release from the company, trading in the eight months to the beginning of April had been “broadly in line” with expectations with revenue up by 5%. However, trading has deteriorated significantly over the past few weeks and now St Ives’ outlook for the final quarter to end-July and following financial year has worsened. All three of the group’s main trading divisions have suffered during the first four months of 2016. Trading across the Strategic Marketing segment has been hammered by ”global economic uncertainty“, which is “resulting in greater caution in the allocation of marketing budgets“. Uncertainty has only “increased of late, resulting in significant projects being deferred or cancelled.“

Meanwhile, revenue at the group’s Marketing Activation arm is running approximately 11% below the prior year, “due in large part to the ongoing pressures within the UK grocery retail sector“. The Marketing Activation arm is also suffering from margin pressures. And lastly, sales at St Ives’ books business are running slightly behind (-1%) the prior year’s numbers as industry de-stocking has offset a new contract with Penguin Random House.

Gloomy outlook

Today’s profit warning couldn’t have come at a worse time for shareholders as, after nearly a decade of restructuring, the company’s underlying unadjusted profits were expected to stabilise this year. Indeed, City forecasts were up until this morning, predicting that St Ives would report a pre-tax profit of £37.4m for the year ending 31 July. Last year the company reported a pre-tax profit of £8.7m and over the five years between 2011 and 2015 the group only reported unadjusted cumulative pre-tax profits of £49.4m. This explains why the shares have fallen so heavily this morning. Many investors were pinning their hopes on a long-awaited recovery this year. Unfortunately, it now looks as if investors will have to wait another two years for the company’s recovery to gain traction.

Weak balance sheet

Whether or not the group can get back on the path of growth remains to be seen. Almost all of the three main divisions are facing structural headwinds, which is why the company has been trying to rebuild, and diversify its business since the financial crisis. But more importantly, St Ives’ weak balance sheet is going to be a problem for the company and its investors if trading continues to worsen. At the end of January 2016, St Ives had only £14m of cash supporting £96m of long-term debt related to the business and £21m in retirement obligations. Further, intangible assets on the balance sheet amounted to £200m and if you strip these assets out shareholder equity comes in at around -£70m. Put simply, the balance sheet isn’t robust enough to be able to survive a prolonged deterioration in trading without an additional cash infusion.
http://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2016/04/25/why-st-ives-plc-crashed-40-today/

skinny - 28 Sep 2016 16:16 - 56 of 70

27 Sep Numis Buy 129.25 180.00 180.00 Reiterates

skinny - 04 Oct 2016 08:33 - 57 of 70

Once more into the breach...


Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=SIV&Si

mentor - 04 Oct 2016 14:04 - 58 of 70

Has double now from the lows last July after the profit warning

Lord Gnome - 06 Oct 2016 09:11 - 59 of 70

Back into these the day before annual numbers. Good / lucky timing or what?

skinny - 07 Oct 2016 12:12 - 60 of 70

Latest Brokers.

06 Oct Peel Hunt Buy 146.63 175.00 175.00 Reiterates

04 Oct Numis Buy 146.63 180.00 190.00 Retains

Lord Gnome - 07 Oct 2016 13:36 - 61 of 70

Forward pe of about 10 then, Skinny. Fairly conservative.

skinny - 07 Oct 2016 14:04 - 62 of 70

Yes - recent broker notes :-

06 Oct Peel Hunt Buy 145.75 175.00 175.00 Reiterates

04 Oct Numis Buy 145.75 180.00 190.00 Retains

04 Oct Peel Hunt Buy 145.75 150.00 175.00 Reiterates

skinny - 19 Jan 2017 12:07 - 63 of 70

I missed this earlier!

Trading Statement

Pre-close trading update

St Ives, the international marketing services group, is today providing a pre-close trading update ahead of the announcement of its results for the half year to 27 January 2017, which will be released on 7 March 2017.

Strategic Marketing

Revenue for the Strategic Marketing segment for the half year is expected to be approximately 9% above the equivalent period in the prior year. Excluding the effects of acquisitions and currency movements, like-for-like revenue is expected to be broadly in line with the prior half year.

As previously reported, we experienced a number of project cancellations and deferrals in the last quarter of the previous financial year, which have also impacted revenue growth and operating margin within the first half of the current financial year. We remain encouraged by the progress that has been made to replace the cancelled work. However, this process is taking longer than previously anticipated, and it is unlikely that we will see the full benefit of the new work we have won until the final quarter of the current financial year.

Books

Within our Books business, revenue for the first half is expected to be approximately 13% above the prior half year. Trading during the pre-Christmas period has been generally positive and was particularly helped by the two recently published J.K. Rowling titles.

Marketing Activation

Trading conditions within our Marketing Activation segment continue to be very challenging due in large part to the ongoing pressures within the grocery retail sector, the segment's largest single market. We expect the rate of revenue decline to have reduced in the first half of the financial year to approximately 2% (compared to a 7% decline in the previous full financial year) although the pressure on operating margin has increased.

Diversification of the client base to reduce this segment's dependency on the grocery sector remains a priority and we have secured a number of new client wins in the half year, although at lower margins than historic levels due to the increasingly competitive nature of the market.

Due to the increased pressure on operating margins we have initiated further cost reduction measures within the segment. The benefits of these actions are expected to come through in the final quarter of the current financial year.

Outlook

As a result of the above, the Board now anticipates that the out-turn for the full financial year will be materially below its previous expectations with the majority of the shortfall due to the pressures within the Marketing Activation segment.

The Board remains confident in the long term strategy currently being pursued, and in the growth opportunities open to the Group. The balance sheet remains sound and we have the necessary cash flow capabilities to support our investment priorities and to further reduce debt.

- Ends -

hangon - 19 Jan 2017 18:44 - 64 of 70

Oh dear oh dear....Fell 30% to 76p today....and who knows how much lower this can go?
It was 240p in May 2016, - DYOR.

mentor - 24 Jan 2017 15:52 - 65 of 70

TIME FOR THE BOUNCE?

well I did buy some at 75.025p

There is volume as is moving up from the floor

Chart.aspx?Provider=Intra&Code=SIV&Size=Chart.aspx?Provider=Intra&Code=SIV&Size=p.php?pid=staticchart&s=L%5ESIV&width=62

Chris Carson - 05 Mar 2018 08:51 - 66 of 70

Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=SIV&Si



Bought a few for ISA long term @70.50. Interims Wed 7/3

skinny - 05 Mar 2018 09:53 - 67 of 70

Peel Hunt Buy 71.25 130.00 130.00 Reiterates

Chris Carson - 07 Mar 2018 08:54 - 68 of 70

ST IVES plc

Half Year Results for the 27 weeks ended 2 February 2018
St Ives plc, the international marketing services group, announces half year results for the 27 weeks ended 2 February 2018.

Financial Highlights


27 weeks to

2 February

2018

26 weeks to

27 January

2017

%age

change

Continuing operations:

Revenue

£146.5m

£136.7m

+7%

Adjusted profit before tax1

£12.7m

£9.5m

+35%

Adjusted basic earnings per share1

7.06p

5.26p

+34%

Statutory loss before tax

£(15.0)m

£(3.1)m



Statutory basic loss per share

(11.57)p

(2.96)p



Interim dividend

0.65p

0.65p



Net debt

£42.2m

£54.6m2



1 Adjusted results exclude Adjusting Items to enhance understanding of the ongoing financial performance of the Group. Adjusting Items comprise of redundancies, restructuring costs; gain or loss on disposal of properties; impairment or amortisation charges related to goodwill, tangible and intangible assets; contingent consideration required to be treated as remuneration; movements in deferred consideration and costs related to the St Ives Defined Benefits Pension Scheme.

2 Net debt as at 28 July 2017.

3 Continuing operations excludes the results of the four Marketing Activation businesses disposed of at the end of February 2018 (Note 8).

4 Like-for-like revenue is calculated by applying prior period exchange rates to local currency results for the current and prior periods.



· A positive six months, with encouraging growth in both Group revenue and adjusted profit before tax from continuing operations.

· Strategic Marketing, which lies at the centre of the Group's long term growth strategy, delivered like-for-like4 revenue growth of 23%, representing 85% of the Group's adjusted operating profit.

· Disposal of four businesses within the Marketing Activation segment significantly reduced Group exposure to commoditised print markets.

· Net debt reduced to £42.2 million from £54.6 million at 28 July 2017.

· Interim dividend maintained at 0.65 pence, to reflect both ongoing investment in organic growth of the Strategic Marketing segment and strengthening the balance sheet.

Matt Armitage, Chief Executive, said:

"This is an encouraging first half performance, with notable progress in our higher growth and higher margin Strategic Marketing segment, offsetting commercial pressures elsewhere in the Group.

"Strategic Marketing continues to go from strength to strength, and making a significant 85 percent contribution to adjusted operating profit during the period. Trading continues to be strong in this segment. We are encouraged by new projects won from both existing and new clients, and excited by the opportunities generated from increased collaboration between our businesses.

"Having indicated our intention to remain focused on diversifying into other sectors, we are pleased to have recently announced the disposal of a significant element of our Marketing Activation segment. This significantly reduces the Group's exposure to the structurally challenged, commoditised print markets and the risk of further, potentially significant re-structuring costs.

"We remain confident in our long-term growth strategy to generate value for shareholders."

skinny - 07 Mar 2018 08:58 - 69 of 70

Well done Chris.
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