Help me - I bought these a month ago - when they were being tipped all over the place. Since then the sector has gone down the swannie - should cut my losses (13%) or hold on for the long haul?

I'm watching psn and bwy for a entry near the bottom hopefully, these are two housebuilders that seem the strongest.

I have decided to use the golden cross as an indication of when to purchase. Look at the 10 year chart above, and you will notice 3 gold crosses in 1999, and 2000, the sp bounced along the bottom for a few years,and if you used the first signal it would just have meant going sideways before the gains.

Interestingly if you look at the chart today we are still some way off a gold cross, it could be another 6 month's before we see one. We might be near the bottom now I'm not sure, but lets see if history repeats itself from the last downturn.

Tried to spread bet it short to no avail. No market. No way this won't drop during the day from current +11%

Hose price continuing to drop...PSN can't sustain at 245p.


House Prices decline 2.2% in December
MoneyAM
Average UK House prices fell by 2.2% during December, according to the Halifax Building Society. House prices nationally are now 16.25% lower than 12 months ago.

Halifax says that the house price to earnings ratio is at its lowest for five and a half years. At 4.44, this is the lowest since April 2003 but is still above the long term average of 4.0

Housing market now certainly starting to show signs of improvement and recovery albeit at a steady pace.

Perismmon chart looks pretty solid and a rise up to 400p within the uptrend channel could be on the cards and fairly smartish

I'm still waiting for that gold cross, it looks closer now for both PSN and BWY, BWY chart shows the same bull channel as PSN. The reason I'm using this golden cross is that it worked well in 2002/3, and hopefully will work again.

Hi Spitters,

Zak Mir chartist over on tips reckons its already happened.

think hes using 10 day and 20 day MAs. (yep he as confirmed this.

I also like Bellway.

Did a stockscreen and the housing sector came out very strongly hence my movement into this area .

regards.

Bonsoir g/f

Just checked using 9 day and 25 day MAs, and it has already crossed.

I was using a much longer MA of 50 and 200, and expected them to
bounce along the bottom a bit longer.

Noticed that Naked Trader brought PSN last week also.

Robbie Burns, didnt know that, not a big fan of SMIRKEY BURNS and still dont know how he gets away with tipping stocks but is not FSA covered, anyway sorry about that, but yep think both of us are onto winners here. ( watch the crowd follow months after)

Redrow, could be about to spring upwards.

Keep an eye out spitters.

Stay in touch. regards GF.

Good analysis friom PRO TA- er ZAK MIR..

http://sharecrazy.com/beta/Tips/1526/a-star-a-dog-and-a-rebound

PSN the star by the way.

Taken from he Blue Index blog

Persimmon and on
April 23rd, 2009

A sure sign today that the UK housing market is at least firming up and finding a bottom. We still have one helluva long way to go though, and while Darlings budget yesterday seems to have been universally slated, there were a few items to help stimulate the housing market:

* Stamp duty holiday extended until the end of 2009
* Mortgage Interest Scheme extended by six months
* Introduce mortgage security backed guarantee to help banks lend
* Invest 80 million to shared ownership HomeBuy scheme
* Reduce restraints on new contruction to help meeting demand for housing
* 500 million of support for house building firms to deliver 1,000s of new homes, including 100 million for green housing
* 50 million to modernise homes for people in the armed forces

On the face of it, that provides plenty of stimulus and support for Persimmon (PSN), the UKs second-largest house builder by market cap. Persimmon updated on trading, saying Q1 volumes continued ahead of expectations, and said while the recent improvement in market conditions is encouraging, it remains cautious about the outlook until mortgage availability improves further and employment prospects become less uncertain. The group said it currently has 6,500 homes reserved, contracted or legally completed with total sales revenue of about GBP960m, and added its position in the market will provide a strong platform for growth when the market improves. The trading update covers the 16 weeks since the start of the year.

The rest of the article is here
http://blog.blueindex.co.uk/2009/04/persimmon-and-on/

Strong move up on the back of trading update.

Just sniffing the fresh air.

NO SMELL JUST LOVELY AIR.

Interesting to see all the builders under stress. With the improvement in the housing market shuddering to a halt, IMHO there is a real risk that the economy/ SM is going to rollover. Perhaps quantitative easing will support things but I for one am quite happy to keep a cash pile until we see where things are going.

From Digitallook today:
"The wheels have come off the Persimmon revival bandwagon this year with the stock coming down from its January peak of around 500p to dip below 400p at one point but they are back on the rise after Tuesday's results, with good cause, in Panmure Gordon's view.

The broker has upgraded its price target for the housebuilder to 555p from 549p and retained its 'buy' recommendation after Persimmon announced 2009 figures that were ahead of Panmure's expectations.

"A continued focus on operating margins at the business, has significantly improved profitability and this should continue. Whilst concerns remain over the fragility of the UK mortgage market and ongoing economic conditions, these are reflected in our assumptions," Panmure Gordon said, adding that it would revise its projections after the company's analysts' meeting.

The Panmure team's early thoughts are that its £13m profit before tax forecast for 2010 will be bumped up, possibly as high as £75m."

"Prime Markets says that the dividend boost at house-builder Persimmon should support a break higher in the shares and reiterates its buy recommendation on the stock.

Housebuilder Persimmon has today produced a sterling set of numbers, offsetting a revenue fall with a profits boos t while reducing net finance costs and net borrowings, said head of dealing at Prime Markets, Richard Curr.

The broker expects shares to pick up to 413p in the coming seven to ten days."

Persimmon plc today announces Final Results for the year ended
31 December 2011


Highlights

· Underlying pre-tax profits* increased 55% to £148.1m (2010: £95.5m)
· Full year revenue of £1.54bn (2010: £1.57bn)
· Legal completions steady at 9,360 (2010: 9,384) and average selling price** reduced by 2% to £166,142 (2010: £169,339) reflecting a greater proportion of first time buyer homes in the sales mix
· Operating margin* increased to 10.0% (2010: 8.2%); with second half improvement to 10.8%
· Strong cash generation of £119m with net cash of £41m at year end (2010: net borrowings of £51m)
· Healthy landbank, with c.14,300 plots acquired in the year, bringing the total of owned and controlled plots to c.63,300, representing over 6.5 years supply
· Continued focus on the development of strategic land with c.50% of replacement land successfully converted from the Group's strategic landbank
· Net assets per share increased by 5% to 608.6p (2010: 579.1p)
· Underlying basic earnings per share* increased by 48% to 36.8p (2010: 24.8p)
· Increased final dividend of 6.0p per share (2010: 4.5p per share), making a total of 10.0p for the year, an increase of 33%
· Strong forward sales of £927.4m (2010: £848.1m) - up 9.4%

*stated before exceptional items and goodwill charges
**stated before fair value charge on shared equity sales


Strategic review and long term Capital Return Plan

· Detailed strategy review that seeks to take full advantage of Persimmon's excellent prospects, while maintaining the Group's capital discipline
· Programme to return £1.9bn (£6.20 per share) of cash to shareholders by way of dividends over 9.5 years, from 2013 to 2021
· Group to remain largely ungeared throughout this period
· Strength of the Persimmon business model will support development of a stronger, larger business over the next decade while maximising return on capital employed and providing greater certainty of returns to shareholders
· We believe that successful execution of this strategy will optimise the financial performance of the business and enhance value for shareholders

Nicholas Wrigley, Group Chairman, said: "Underlying profit before tax grew by 55% during the year, as Persimmon's successful strategy of improving operating margins, investing in high quality land and generating surplus cash to pay down debt proved highly effective, despite difficult prevailing housing market conditions.

Looking ahead, we have made a strong start to the year, with forward sales up by 9.4% to £927 million. Visitor levels and reservations continue on an improving trend and, although we expect the UK housing market to remain difficult, Persimmon is in a strong position to meet this challenge.

In addition to the strong financial results we are reporting today I am pleased to announce the conclusion of a strategic review, which will see Persimmon return £1.9bn of cash to shareholders over the next 9.5 years, whilst maintaining a largely ungeared balance sheet. This new strategy sets Persimmon on course to build a stronger, larger business and deliver enhanced shareholder returns over the next decade."

Excellent volume so far.

It's a nice "Up-Market" business; but the time to buy was 2008 (under £2!) so that now the Yield would be nearer 5% - as it is, anyone buying now (£7), is getting a poor Yield despite it being raised to 10p/sh (News, today-DYOR), over the year.
[PSN] PE is almost 10, making this about 3x the "value" of TW, - but TW. is yet to return to Dividends. I hold only [TW.] and suspect TW will increase in value more than PSN, as it has further to (re-)gain. I bought TW about 30p av....now double-ish.
I think the figures released really show the housing mkt has yet to gain legs.....all down to Banking Loan restrictions, etc.
IMHO.