.

RF, the south of the south Falklands was always likely to be gas, but its the only licenses BOR have. Just like the north of the north Falklands is gas in Johnson.

FOGL drill targets are well in the "Oil Window" !!!

So Stebbing is what ?...gas or oil ?.....can't see in your map...or both ?.

Stebbing is more likely oil, reduced chance of gas.

Is it just a coincidence, or does Proselenes only bring good news. I saw his comments beofre the Darwin discovery.
He conveniently left of the fact then, that Darwin was "inside the gas window". After the discovery, he all of a sudden
knew that Darwin well was in the gas window all along. His comments are biast. He wants us to buy

He's now talking Loligo up to be 9.7 billion barrels

I don't actually get why shares rise in anticipation of a discovery. Wouldn't you want to hear the results, and at that
moment invest. Because I don't suspect that BOR shares will rise as much in anticipation before the Stebbing prospect..
not bacause they now suspect there to only be condensate, but because they have learned their lesson from the Darwin
prospect!!

FSM, you are suggesting that Mr P is a ramper? Shame on you!!! ;o)

As for your second post, you are assuming that everyone has the same investment strategy as yourself. They don't. Many investors/traders couldn't care less about the company or it's fundamentals. Also many investors seem to like to get in on the ground floor where the potential profits are greater than getting in once news is announced and missing the initial, very profitable surge. Depends on your appetite for risk in the end, imo and what you can afford to lose if the news is bad.

Or you can get in with a small stake and top up with a big stake once there is good new's

of course you can, but then you run the danger of having small stakes in 20/30 companies 17/26 of which fail dismally (do not perform is the same) - e.g. rrr and even today's hot number, goo

" danger of having small stakes in 20/30 companies "

Most retail investors only have 10/15 in their portfolio's , you wouldn't have 20/30 small speculative punt's

and i wouldn't touch (m)any of those squitty companies with my money, let alone 10/15 of them

cynic

I meant out of a portfolio of 10 to 15 , having say 2 or 3

http://www.scotsman.com/news/scottish-news/top-stories/oil-capital-s-counsel-for-falkland-islanders-1-2280516

.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/47349888


Goldman Sachs raises Falkland Oil And Gas to buy

Published: Wednesday, 9 May 2012 | 3:30 AM ET


May 9 (Reuters) - Falkland Oil And Gas Ltd :

* Goldman Sachs raises Falkland Oil And Gas Ltd to buy from neutral

* Goldman Sachs raises Falkland Oil And Gas Ltd price target to 212P
from 93.60P


.

Holding up and quite rightly so......could be worth five to ten times present value.....

Most of the Goldman Sachs note with ref to FOGL:
"We upgrade Falkland Oil and Gas from Neutral to Buy with a 12-month target price of 212p (from 94p) implying 126% potential upside. On updating for FOGL’s recent equity placing on January 13, 2012 and updating the drilling programme to include more optimal well selection allowed by the additional funds, we believe the stock now offers an attractive risk/reward balance and add the stock to the Buy List. We also believe the recent announcement regarding FOGL’s acreage farm-out to another industry player also provides some assurance as to the viability of the company’s acreage, while the gas condensate discovery at the Borders and Southern Darwin East well has also served to highlight the prospectivity of the southern part of the basin (in which FOGL has acreage – albeit with no plans to drill in the current campaign). We assume that the company drills the Loligo and Scotia prospects as part of this drilling campaign. Despite the success of the Darwin East prospect we would still regard these prospects as relatively high risk and as such apply conservative chances of success (8% for Loligo and 8% for Soctia with a c.50% chance of encountering liquids – a higher risking than for Borders & Southern’s remaining Stebbing prospect to reflect the 3D seismic that Borders possesses and the de-risking impact of Darwin). Success at these prospects would be transformational for the company, with the potential to increase our valuation by c.1740% in the oil case, even without including the derisking impact success would have on the rest of the basin. The company has worked up a large number of prospects and leads across multiple play types in its sizable acreage position, giving substantial running room in the event of success. Despite our conservative risking, there is still 126% potential upside to our target price."

Cheers Harry,i did not think it was as low as 8% on both targets.

212p x 1740% increase for success.

So GS are saying 36 pounds 88 pence per share target price on Loligo/Scotia success, pre appraisal drilling, just based on discovery - which would then increase considerably with appraisal drilling and firming up of the figures.

I would go with that.


212p pre-drill and 3688p post drill with success - about right.

i don't think there is a direct correlation with sp between 8% chance and ultimate success though obviously if commercial quantities of oil - not gas; not condensate; just real good quality liquid black stuff - then the upside is certainly very significant indeed ..... but that presupposes black eldorado

Chasing rainbows springs to mind,if any thing is found FOGL think it maybe gas.

Well guys.....in up to my neck here......hoping for a major success.....and you have to say that going through their presentation of the prospects only one word springs to mind : "impressive"....worth printing out......might be gas Marky....but perhaps several trillion cubic feet......commercial....and there are other prospects within their vast acreage...worth a punt Marky....