http://www.gulfkeystone.com/ The firms exploration programme in Algeria is going well and "the shares look good value", say the Investors Chronicle. Your comments please. goal.

Well i topped up on this dip,with 40,000bopd(75%increase) due in the next three weeks ifeel the risk is lower now than for many a month?

Just my luck, i missed a brokers note 60/120p,although most oilers have taken a hammering at the minute.

http://rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/05122014



'According to Barzani, the Iraqi government has also admitted that it owes the Kurdistan Region 16 trillion dinars, and expenses incurred by foreign oil companies operating in the region.'

Really. Well it's out there now in the public domain....

Whoooo hoooooo!

that's about $13billion if US trillion

The Times

Admittedly, there were more pressing events in oil this week, such as the continuing deterioration in the price, the resulting collapse of the rouble and some daft idea that Royal Dutch Shell might buy BP, but events in the oil-rich Kurdish province of Iraq seem to have been overlooked.
There are four quoted UK companies there. The problem has been getting the oil to the outside world and getting paid for it. The first is well under way; the second logjam appears to have been unblocked.
There were two linked pieces of news. In November, the Kurdish regional government in Erbil, in a largely symbolic gesture, said that it would make a first payment to producers, with further regular sums to come in the new year. This was designed to reassure them, as the province’s oil industry ramps up and capacity in the pipeline into Turkey increases, that further investment would be rewarded.
This week that first payment arrived, $15 million for Gulf Keystone Petroleum for its Shaikan field and $24 million to Genel Energy for its Taq Taq and Tawke fields. Simultaneously, Erbil and Baghdad agreed on a deal to share the country’s oil revenues.
Baghdad would get the revenue from 300,000 barrels a day (bpd) from the Kirkuk field and another 250,000 bpd of Kurdish oil, all exported through the pipeline. Erbil gets a 17 per cent share of the national budget and can keep revenues from however much more it can sell. Total production from the province could hit 500,000 bpd next year.
In the background is the war between both and the Islamic State — as one commentator put it: “There is nothing like a common enemy to get people to settle their disagreements.”
Shares in Gulf Keystone and Genel jumped after the news. The two others are much smaller players. Petroceltic has interests in two blocks, but these are still at the exploration stage. Afren, better known for its African operations, has interests in two fields, including Barda Rash, but production is limited, averaging about 500 bpd in the first half of 2014.
For Gulf Keystone, the breaking of the deadlock allows it to push ahead with its Shaikan field. Production is running at about 40,000 bpd and is taken in lorries north to the town of Fishkhabur on the Turkish border. There are plans to link with the pipeline, perhaps in 2016; the oil from Shaikan is heavy crude and is likely to need some processing.
Shaikan should be producing at 100,000 bpd within a couple of years, but the field will need hefty investment. Some analysts believe that Gulf Keystone will have to raise fresh funds on the stock market. The alternative is bringing in a partner or even an outright bid.
This has been made easier by the Erbil-Baghdad agreement, because big oil companies already operating in the south of the country will be able to take a position in the Kurdish region. One might question, on glancing at the oil price, whether they are in the mood to buy assets.
DNO, the Norwegian company, is also producing in Kurdish Iraq. The biggest British player is Genel. Its cost of production is startlingly cheap, less than $2 a barrel. Genel, where Tony Hayward, the former BP boss, is chief executive, has the most to gain from recent developments. Its oil is high-grade light crude. It is producing, from the two fields, about 250,000 bpd and is owed $180 million for the oil it has exported already. The company has a market capitalisation of £1.7 billion, which would put it in the FTSE 250 index and mean that index-tracking funds would have to invest.
However, because Kurdish Iraq has not hitherto been recognised by Baghdad, the UK Listing Authority has said that the degree of political risk this raises precludes this. The outbreak of amity between Iraq and its breakaway province means this will probably happen in the new year. Genel has set three pre-conditions for a return of excess capital to shareholders. Once payments come through regularly, all three will have been achieved. That return looks likely next year . . . and one day M&A activity will return to the sector.

htTp://www.malcysblog.com/#sthash.Ew4dZ1vY.dpuf



Oil price
The oil market fell yesterday on the news that I mentioned about Saudi pricing for January liftings, the interesting thing about about it was that it only fell less than a dollar, indicating that the market has already adopted a tolerance to such news. Reuters is reporting this morning that at least $150bn of oil and gas projects due to be authorised for next year have already been put on hold, if true this is the start of the cycle which will lead to higher prices further down the road, the oil industry can never be accused of not being short termist or predictable eh?

Copied.
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http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/petroleum_sof.htm

Positions aa 2 Dec.

067651 crude oil on the NYME

Contracts on the shortside up 21k not far off double the Long. Overall positions still weighted quite heavily to the shortside.
The price has drifted slightly south since the 2nd and with no major volume days. Would not appear that there's been a shift in this stance at this point.

Seeing also the feeble rebound in the price it does appear that sub $60 is on the way unless we see some geo-politic crisis emerge. $58.50 would be my short term target.

It will be interesting to see how gkp/genl respond If at all although the latter is probably more sensitive to Po0 fluctuations. So far in the last few weeks the more significant news has been payments and krg/icg agreements.

Hedge positions changing on oil.


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-08/hedge-funds-betting-that-opec-led-oil-rout-is-near-end.html

.

Don't understand the article cyril ,says GKP was 95p yesterday ?

Edit , i see the article is from last summer .

j b missed that myself,iwill delete my post,thanks.

From LSE.
GKP
Gulf's fundamentals are very strong
Today 09:55


Five commercial discoveries, one of them world-class and the biggest conventional onshore discovery in 20 years.

A fully-funded work programme.

$250 million due to be paid by the KRG for exported oil and their share of back-costs.

Hundreds of millions of dollars of sunk costs to be recovered from production under the PSC terms.

The first of the new-style contract holders to achieve export production.

One of only three Kurdistan operators approved to export by the KRG.

Excellent relationship with the KRG, which is publicly recognised.

KRG protective of Gulf, warning "troublemakers not wanted here, so troublemakers STAY AWAY".

Shaikan described as "the Crown Jewels".

KRG herald consolidation (M&A) in Kurdistan following establishment of regular payments.

A number of potential bids in the past; large oil companies including Chevron and TAQA do not agree with negative bloggers.

Allegations by (Judge) Simon Picken QC and Clifford Chance against Todd Kozel REJECTED ABSOLUTELY by Lord Justice Christopher Clarke.

Capital expenditure linked to export payment: "can't pay, can't play", so no pressure on Gulf.

Greater Shaikan potentially accounts for HALF OF ALL THE OIL IN KURDISTAN.

Announcement of 40,000 bopd at Shaikan imminent.

Various reduced-cost export routes including use of DNO pipeline.

Akri-Bijeel ramping-up to 10,000 bopd.

Productivity Indices of OVER TWO HUNDRED on ALL the Shaikan wells.

Free-flow unrestricted output from Shaikan wells some 40,000 bopd EACH.

World-class reservoir permeability.

Over seven million barrels of oil produced from the fractures with NO WATER.

Production facilities being re-worked to lift capacity beyond 40,000 bopd.

Clear path to 70,000 and 100,000 bopd.

Longer-term Shaikan output far in excess of 100,000 bopd.

What's not to like?!

Well 57p at present is this the bottom,who can tell? But with output due to rise from 23,000 to 40000bopd(74%increase)by xmas,the SP should climb very quickly imo.
The shorters who love this stock and will be well aware of this fact,just a question of when they close their positions with 8.5days of trading to go(max)?

Unless of course they have info thats different?

shaikan oil is sour and low grade

42p the 12 month low, so seems to me that is possible......again.

Still dropping,but why?Illiquid yes,but with 40kbopd shortly(imminent?)a chance for a quick buck for the brave.Question which is bugging pi's is why no director trades at these levels,witch begs the question are they close to price sensitive news??
Next weeks trading will be interesting to say the least,will the shorters buy back,or are they in the know?Only time will tell.

By Harvey Jones - Friday, 12 December, 2014
GKPGFKSY

Pity the poor investor in Gulf Keystone Petroleum (LON: GKP) (NASDAQOTH: GFKSY.US), they’ve had a rough year. They embarked on 2014 with high hopes, with the oil explorer’s Shaikan operation in Kurdistan ready to start gushing.

And although there has been good news on that front, the share price is down 70% this year as nervous investors flee political and economic uncertainty, and the oil sector meltdown.

Gulf Keystone Petroleum is down 20% in the last week alone. Does that make it a buy?

That Petrol Emotion
Actually, I don’t really investors pity in Gulf Keystone Petroleum. They knew what they were getting into, and accepted the risks, just as they will accept potential rewards.

This year, gambling on Gulf backfired. Next year it could be different.

2014 could easily have ended on a higher note. After years of exploration, the Kurdish government approved plans for the Akri-Bijeel block at the end of October, which Gulf partly owns. The block holds reserves of around 43 million barrels.

Gulf also announced that its Shaikan operation is on track to produce 40,000 barrels of oil per day (bopd) by the end of this year, up from 23,000.

And at the start of December, it received an initial payment of $50 million from the Kurdistan regional government for shipments rooted through Turkey, with further payments to follow.

State of Independence
The flurry of good news took Gulf’s share price to 69p on 2 December. Just over a week later it is languishing at 51p, down 26%. Oil exploration is a risky exercise when the world is suddenly swimming in a glut of over-supply.

Markets welcomed the news that Gulf hopes to lift its Shaikan output to 60,000 or 70,000 bopd over the next two years, assuming Kurdish government payments keep flowing.

In one respect, the rise of Islamic State may have done the Gulf a favour, despite the added instability. The Iraqi central government in Baghdad daren’t get too heavy over Kurdish oil exports, because it needs its support against the jihadists.

Especially since the West appears to have committed itself to making Kurdistan a buffer against the malignant spread of IS.

Troubled Waters
If you think the oil price is reaching the bottom, now could be an exciting time to make a high-stakes gamble on Gulf. If you think oil is heading to $40 a barrel, then it’s fast-growing Kurdish production won’t be worth as much as it was.

Gulf may be a lot cheaper than it was one week ago, but it is just as dangerous.

If the Gulf share price recovers, brave investors could end up dripping in black gold. Potential multi-baggers like this are a great way to turbo-charge your investment portfolio.

But there are less risky investments that can help you join the growing number of surprise UK millionaires who earned their wealth on the stock market.

Find out what they are by reading this new Motley Fool wealth report 7 Simple Steps For Seeking Serious Wealth.

interesting day tomorrow with Chevrons CEO opening the conference,many perhaps making 2+2=5?

Sub 50p does not say much for tomorrow?

Kurdistan Operational Update
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Limited, an exploration and production company with operations in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, today provides an update on the Company's operations at Shaikan, its key producing asset.

The Company is pleased to announce the completion of the installation of the flowlines to connect the Shaikan-7, -8, and -10 wells to the existing production facilities ("PF-1" and "PF-2"). The Shaikan-7 and -8 wells are now tied to PF-1 and Shaikan-10 to PF-2. The flowlines are currently being hydro-tested and first oil is expected to flow to the production facilities in December.

With the addition of the three new producers, the current total production levels of between 23,000 and 25,000 gross bopd will increase to 40,000 gross bopd.

An amine plant is currently being tested at PF-2, to be followed by the similar plant at PF-1 in early 2015. The amine plants will sweeten the associated gas stream, allowing it to be used as fuel for the production facilities instead of diesel, representing savings of up to US$400,000 per month to the project.

A rig package is moving to a location in the vicinity of Shaikan-10 in order to drill Shaikan-11, an additional producer. An 11 km flowline to tie this well to PF-2 has already been laid.

Shaikan crude oil exports by truck to the Turkish coast continue uninterrupted.

John Gerstenlauer, Gulf Keystone's Chief Executive Officer commented:

"Despite numerous challenges earlier this year, Gulf Keystone has completed the work on the three additional producers on time. We are now testing the flowline connections, including an 11 km link between Shaikan-10 and PF-2, and look forward to boosting Shaikan production to our near-term target of 40,000 bopd. I would like to thank our entire team in the Kurdistan Region, which today includes over 300 employees and contractors, for their effort and diligent delivery in the area of construction, production and crude oil export sales."

What i thought ,a delay from xmas to early 2015.Some were clearly in the know, explaining the resent run on the SP?