I suspect trading tomorrow will probably answer this conundrum, but I know there are some far wiser owls than me that contribute to this bb & I would be interested in their opinions.

My question is this: the chart below looks to me like a pullback of the uptrend (ie when it went north through 14.00) however I am unsure as it has now broken down through 14.00 whether this is trending up or down :-(

So what do you think - up or down, or should I just flip a coin :-)) ?

IS THIS CHEAP OR WHAT. I AM GOING IN, HERE GOES.

What is our ambition for the future?
To earn a place in every investor’s portfolio

AGM 1MAY 2012

From post 493 - But only last month the firm reiterated its stance on sticking to its bumper 11% dividend. Why the high dividend ?

These and FGP are doing my head in today - I want to short (again) FGP but .... I used to be indecisive and now I'm not so sure.

Note from Citigroup:
"Capacity constraints. AHL hit $25bn AUM in Mar 08, and has since struggled to deliver returns. We believe performance has been constrained by AUM scale.
AHL. With AHL down -4% year to date we reduce EPS forecasts by 15% 2012E and 43% 2013, and our target price from 150p to 100p, to reflect a triple mwhammy: 1) Worse than expected returns, slower fund flow recovery; 2) Lower performance fee earnings, greater dividend risk; 3) Negative rebalancing (NR), lower profitability. NR reduced highest margin guaranteed product AUM by $1.6bn in Q4 2011. We forecast a further -$0.6bn Q1 and -$0.4bn Q2 2012.
Margin pressure. Guaranteed fund outflows continue, and we forecast a spike in 2013. Because it is high margin, this offsets forecast strong recovery in GLG fund flows, and so we actually forecast no growth in 2013 underlying EPS.
Key man risk. Lock ups for GLG principals expire Oct 2013, with 1/3 shares free this October. Departure of key individuals is a risk to GLG recovery longer term.
Dividend cut. Man has affirmed 22c DPS for 2012. But we forecast it will cut to 14c in 2013 due to low performance fee EPS, and lack of underlying EPS growth.
Valuation / Risk. Putting 2013E EPS on 11.3x (10 yr average) gives 101p, which supports our new 100p price target. At 18.3x 2013E management fee EPS Man is at the lower end of its 3 year range. But we now rate the stock High Risk to reflect sensitivity to AHL returns, and our concern that PE could de-rate further.
Historical PE ranges suggest a support level at ~80p per share.

GOD NOW YOU TELL ME, CHEERS. Harry

80p support would seem tight.

Red = 200 DMA

Horrendous chart.. where to now.

EMG MAN GROUP

Sorry but the Technicals look terrible
here and I can only see one way for this
stock at the moment and thats down....

Thank s gf.

Went up though but not sure for how long Mitzy.

Down today through gf.

Long on the spreads @ 96.0 (GULP), just hope when they tossed the coin this morning they made the right call.

Long on the spreads @ 96.0 (GULP), just hope when they tossed the coin this morning they made the right call.

Good luck Chris - I've decided to steer well clear!

Your probably right to skinny, worth a punt but I wont hang about if it continues down :O)

UBS note (Summary):
"Following AHL’s recent weak performance – down 6% since February – and high levels of operational leverage, we cut our EPS estimates by 28% for 2012 and 31% for 2013.
We set our price target for Man Group at 140p (average of 150p bid valuation and 130p standalone). We reiterate our Buy rating ahead of the quarterly AUM update on 1st May. With low flow expectations, we see scope for the outlook to be better in Japan as the Yen has weakened and consumer confidence is improving.
Man Group is on the UBS M&A Watch List."

EMG is good value for money -
Many yield calculations for 2011 seem to be wrong as is only a nine month "year".
Director say they expect 2012 div to be 22 cents, or 22 / 1.60 = 13.75 p per share, based on new arrangement to distribute all base fee income.
That gives a 2012 yield at 96p ( current price ) of 13.75/96x100 = 14.32%
What fund manager would not like to pick up a yield like that ??????

I know assets under management on their "flagship" fund have been falling, but not many asset managers have had increases lately.

All it needs is a bit of market strength over the next 6 to 9 the months and the AUM will pick up, as I believe they may now be doing as Jan - Mar 2012 saw a FTSE rise.

The share price may value in a more "reasonable" yield of ?? say 8%.
8% yield would give a share price of 170p ( i.e. 13.75 / 170 x 100 = about 8% )

At present 96p it looks a bargin to buy and hold for 9 months.
EMG is a big Co and should carry little risk

Any comments please

I have bought many thousand EMG shares at average price of 106p.
I suggest you buy now or tomorrow when they will be cheaper but ex div.
I guess it also depends on market sentiment improving, but to me EMG
look good value

Any comments please

I too have bought some more to add to my several thousand bought at an average price of 143p. My thought is that emg is due a bounce which might exceed the ex div effect I.e. the divi may have little impact on hopefully a lot of shorts coming off. If I can break even I am out a least for the next few months, as I think the ftse will drift lower. H