http://www.falklands-oil.com/

http://www.rockhopperexploration.co.uk

http://www.argosresources.com/




Rockhopper was established in 2004 with a strategy to invest in and undertake an offshore oil exploration programme in the North Falkland Basin. It was floated on AIM in August 2005. Rockhopper was the first company to make a commercial oil discovery in the Falklands. Today Rockhopper is the largest acreage holder in the North Falkland Basin, with interests in the Greater Mediterranean region.

Canaccord conclusion (with much optimism):
Impact
Rockhoppers resource update is very encouraging and we expect the market to react positively to the materially increased scope of the Sea Lion project. Using an oil price of US$87.50/barrel alongside a 12% discount rate, we estimate Rockhoppers NAV to be 871p/share. Our NAV hinges on our estimate of the groups current cash position plus our estimate of the value of the Sea Lion Main Complex, using the updated mid-case recoverable resources of 325 mmbbls, risked at 75% ahead of a formal CPR audit.

Action/Valuation
We maintain our BUY rating and have increased our NAV-derived target price from 593p/share to 871p/share

A few more brokers updates

Our current target price of 400p is based on 155mmbls for the Sea Lion discovery. This mornings announcement is very positive, and we will be reviewing our valuation to incorporate new volume estimates, said analyst Charlie Sharp.

For now, the target price stands at 400p.
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Evolution Securities analyst Keith Morris highlighted that the mid-case estimate for recoverable oil is around 60 per cent higher than the 200 million barrels assumed in his model. Our core plus risked upside for Rockhopper is 671p per share, Morris said in a note to clients. Assuming recoverable resource of 326 million barrels oil equivalent this would increase to 882p. The analyst did however say that his valuation includes theoretical upside and until more drilling has been done, he is maintaining a 450p target.

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While repeating a buy and putting his 510p target under review, Westhouse Securities analyst Andrew Matharu said: The Sea Lion Main Complex (SLMC) is, in our view, now a viable stand-alone project with additional upside still remaining. Similarly Matrix Capitals Charlie Sharp also kept a buy and put his 400p target price which is based on 155 million barrels of oil under review

http://en.mercopress.com/2011/08/15/rockhopper-raises-its-estimate-of-oil-in-north-falkland-basin-to-608-million-barrels

Rockhopper raises its estimate of oil in North Falkland basin to 608 million barrels
Rockhopper Exploration PLC upgraded its estimates of how much oil it could find off the Falkland Islands, boosting hopes that the remote territory in the South Atlantic could become a new oil province.

Holding up in a bad market dare i say.....you still holding cynic after your top up

i am indeed

What about Desire are you tempted, they may have up to 10% sitting in there acreage from sea lion but we wont know until we get news in September.

To think a week ago you could of bought these for 1.30s....crackers

tried to buy a few at 18.25 yesterday, but not that fussed either way

.

whats crackers is these were up to 5 with less proved reserves!

Fox Davies updates price target from 5 to 6

http://www.fox-davies.com/media/414425/rkhflashnote16aug2011.pdf

Marky..lucky for the guys/gals, that write these Broker notes, that the sp's don't have to hit their targets before they are paid!

They are 12 month tatgets i think.....My clogs are scrathing for a pint chav if free one night...will get my teak clogs polished.

This will be in the blue when i get back from down the mine i can feel it in my water........clip clop clip clop

Back from the mine good to see some blue sky....i c pro has edited his post from early today what a numpty the bloke is.

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/32155/rockhopper-exploration-shares-a-big-buy-says-oriel-32155.html

Rockhopper Exploration shares potentially worth 1114p, says Oriel

1114p that's more then a 30% gain , isn't pro ?

Thats just on one prospect sea lion

No penguins for the accidental Wiltshire oil baron
Sam Moody had no experience in oil before setting up Rockhopper. Now he aims to make a fortune in the South Atlantic. Is he smart or just lucky?
Andrew Davidson Published: 21 August 2011
Recommend (0) Comment (0)PrintFollow Business Sam Moody threw in life as a stockbroker to downsize in the country (Phil Yeomans)
Heres the thing if someone you were helping with a property deal said to you, By the way, I think theres oil in the Falklands, shall we drill for it?, would you look at him like he was slightly bonkers? Or plunge straight in and set up the business?

Sam Moody, former City stockbroker and a downsizer to Wiltshire, went for Option B. That was in 2004 and just look at him now: chief executive of Rockhopper, the listed oil explorer that is already worth 565m and could eventually be valued at a whole lot more.

Could is the key word here. Potentially we are looking at a pretty big discovery, says Moody, but investors want to know the final answer after every well we drill. We just dont know yet.

And he says it sitting in a converted farmyard, 10 minutes drive from Salisbury Rockhoppers base for an operation that is taking place 8,000 miles away in the sea round the Falklands. You could be forgiven for thinking this is one of the stranger stories in British business.

One thing is clear: Rockhopper has discovered oil. It announced that last year. And last week it raised its estimate of how much might be recoverable, causing another flutter in its share price. The start-up is one of five firms drilling around the Falklands, but the only one to have found success causing much anger in Argentina, which disputes the islands sovereignty.

Thats one reason the oil giants leave the Falklands to the minnows. Another is the distance and lack of local infrastructure. For Rockhopper, it will be a challenge. The firm has only 15 full-time employees; most of its work is contracted out.

Bigger companies are happy for us to spend our risk capital proving something is there, smiles Moody. Then maybe they are happy to pay a higher price for a hugely derisked asset; thats probably whats behind it.

Sitting in cords and check shirt, rain lashing down in the courtyard behind him, the 41-year-old Moody looks more like an off-duty farmer than an oil explorer. He has black curly hair and tanned good looks, and is modest with a confidence that comes from success.

Smart or lucky? Bit of both, he replies, stressing the five years of research his company did before chartering a rig. But he knew nothing about oil when he started Rockhopper; it seems extraordinary he could now be running such a valuable firm.

And it really did stem from a suggestion made by a contact he was helping Richard Visick, a lawyer and property entrepreneur who owns a small island off the Falklands and had watched previous drilling attempts in the 1990s. Visick left the Rockhopper board last year so he could sell his shares freely but retains a substantial stake.

Many in the oil industry are still sceptical. The waters round the Falklands are deep and treacherous. And Rockhopper is all loss having raised 325m since listing in August 2005 despite its executives being generously rewarded. Moody earned 705,000, including bonus, last year. Thats a lot for a loss-maker.

Its a billion-dollar company, he shrugs. So whats it doing in a farmyard? Because I spend 8 a square foot here, he says, gesturing at the string of converted barns. Why would I piss shareholders money down the drain in Mayfair?

He has a point. Whats important is what happens in the Falklands. And right now Rockhoppers rig is drilling well after well to ascertain the size of its Sea Lion field. Every month or so, it releases another report that causes another share price flutter. Over 18 months it has yo-yoed.

Moody sighs. Volatility is not a good thing, but you know when you are in a risky industry like exploration that it is inevitable, he says. We are much less risky than many people think because we have drilled a discovery well and three really good appraisal wells. We have a good handle on it.

For Rockhoppers investors which range from large City institutions such as Fidelity, Credit Suisse and GLG to a raft of small investors its still a nail-biter. Will Rockhopper develop the find itself, or call in partners, or simply sell out to an oil giant and walk away with the cash?

Good question, replies Moody. That is being debated internally at the moment. It will be a function of what we find in the remaining wells at the end of the appraisal campaign. The good thing for us is that we have 100% of the asset, which is extremely unusual for a company of our size.

So he could sell the company, or the asset, or just a bit. Every single possibility is being considered. His own stake in the business, 4m shares, is already worth almost 9m even though the stock market has slumped. The business, he says, is worth at least three times its present market value.

The big imponderable is the attitude of Argentina if development starts. Some other South American countries, including Brazil, have backed their neighbour in refusing to help with any Falklands development, and this will make logistics and safety problematic. Should a leak occur, Britain is a long way away.

Moody, somewhat disingenuously, says international relations do not affect Rockhopper. We are not political. We are operating under a legislative regime that the British government assures everyone is properly constituted.

As for logistics, Rockhopper has been drilling there for 19 months. There has not been a single days delay as a result of a logistical problem, says Moody.

And Rockhopper named after the penguin that inhabits the Falklands has insurance and an oil-spill response plan. We do everything as safely as we can.

Moody is still an unlikely oil boss, gentle in demeanour and amiably persuasive. Even his rivals like him. Tim Bushell, chief executive of Falkland Oil and Gas, another of the small explorers, says the Rockhopper boss has been clever in surrounding himself with highly experienced oil professionals. But theres no ego with Sam were all a bit of a club.

That club meets regularly to discuss common problems. Theres always been a general industry cynicism about Falklands exploration, adds Bushell. Rockhopper has done more than anyone to dispel that.

Rockhoppers chairman, Pierre Jungels former boss of Enterprise Oil says Moody is a clever leader with a rare emotional intelligence. He recounts how Moody and Visick turned up at his door one Saturday morning in 2004, and just won him over. Sam has the characteristics I really appreciate in executives. Hes bright, he has empathy, hes calm under pressure, and he knows what questions to ask. Thats important.

Moody is also far more driven than he appears. The adopted son of a Bristol lawyer, he worked in the City for a decade before returning to the West Country with wife, child and 300,000 raised by selling their home in west Londons suburbia.

He had planned a new life as a consultant, helping others raise money with his City connections. Then he met Visick. Rockhopper was just one interesting project among many.

But there were other factors, too. Outside work, a family tragedy the death of his adoptive sister made him rethink what was possible. Seeing my parents get through that made me realise people can do anything.

So he threw himself into Rockhopper, and his lack of experience in oil may actually have helped. He had few predefined ideas about feasibility and likelihoods; he was simply pragmatic. He found his exploration director, Dave Bodecott, a veteran oilman, after Googling for executives with a knowledge of the Falklands.

But 10 years ago he was stockbroking for Axa Equity & Law. Doesnt he pinch himself now and ask, what am I doing, running an oil explorer? Yes, says Moody, but he has learnt fast. He also knows its a deadly serious business.

An oil rig is real people, offshore, far away from home for a long time, doing difficult work its vital you never forget that, he says.

And risk is ever-present politics, logistics, safety, oil price swings, the difficulty of raising capital. One of the biggest risks we have at the minute is the global financial situation. That might have influence over getting finance. Were in discussion with banks at the minute and theres no sign yet, but its definitely there.

So will Rockhopper develop or sell? Whatever is most beneficial for shareholders, he repeats. A decision isnt likely until next year.

Jungels says Rockhoppers biggest challenge will be convincing the markets that what it holds is worth much more than it is currently valued at.

Moody concurs, adding that the current drilling should make everything clearer. If we ended up with 300m barrels recoverable, and the net present value [after costs] of that oil was between $10 and $15 a barrel, that gives you an answer as to what it is worth. And thats just the Sea Lion field. If you look round the world, its quite unusual to get a basin with only one discovery.

So there could be more? Moody raises his eyebrows. However, he cautions, everything depends on cost, price, time... A whole matrix of things. Please put in those caveats.

But if Rockhopper does develop Sea Lion, he sees no reason to move from Wiltshire. We would need more engineers, more processes, but we could do it from here.

So Salisbury becomes the new Houston? Not with this weather.

And is staying in the oil business now part of his life plan?

Moody grins. If I had a life plan, I wouldnt be sitting here now, would I?

i tried
big correction coming gl