http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html

cheers GF.

Loads err money, well in the near future.

tis but a speck of my profits today.

sticking with it as I see them recovering in a big way.

I put a load in the mlynch Black Rock gold fund some 18 months back,and is still about 25% off its high. They had fallen by some 60%. Of course , they only invest in the gold companies.

To be frank CP I wish they would hit 450p and then the game really is on. We can get on with it.

All this fannying around today as been pointless.

At the back of everybodys minds when they saw that discount placing they were first thinking ohh I wonder if they will be marked down to that level.

Its more or less happened so lets go forward from here.

ORE is still the cheap way in ..... do the calc!

cynic yes this is an interesting situation obviously if the POG sp falls the less number of shares have to be issued to ORE shareholders as it appears to be an agreed deal. Probably expect POG shares to fall and "miraculously" recover after the deal is completed, not very helpful to CFD holders.

is what you say true?
surely the deal is just all shares at 16:1, so the underlying price of POG is not strictly relevant

cynic sorry what we meant is as the POG sp declines so the value of the offer decreases and as you mentioned ealier CFD holders of ORE will lose out as they cannot receive POG shares.

suspect you are wrong, but shall check .... certainly we were paid out with IEC

cynic this is an all share deal not cash. To cheer you up Zak Mir sees a retracement by POG to 612p, if you believe in chartists!

Bought in today @ 465 - has to be a good deal in the longer term...
Shame i didn't have the courage of my convictions - i actually had my finger on the trigger to buy at 180p a couple of months ago, but didn't and told myself off about trying to catch a falling knife!!!

BT, hope it goes well for you.

Halifax, yep your right. Cyners have you cocked up here?.

That would be out of character for you but I agree with Halifax and you say more or less you have been under pressure re., ckn thread.

Hope you are Ok mate.

i don't think so ..... IG checking for me .... at worst, i still have modest profit to bank

cheers mate.

Please let us know.

of course

Ta.

Much appreciated.

Hoping you have had a good rest over the weekend.

Cheers GF.

Comment in article by P Hambro..


Gold prices set to go up on low output

Press Trust Of India / Mumbai February 9, 2009, 0:43 IST



Gold prices are expected to rise further as production of the precious yellow metal may fall again this year.


Goldman Sachs has announced an increase in its gold price forecast. It has upped its three-month prediction from $700 an ounce to $1,000 an ounce. Gold price is currently around the $900 a troy ounce mark and some commentators such as US equity manager, Francois Moute, expect it to hit the $1,600 level in the next year.

Goldman Sachs has become the latest to up its forecast in the past two weeks, following similar moves by Morgan Stanley and UBS, which have revised their predictions twice.

An upward pressure on gold prices is anticipated as its production is slated to fall further this year.

The precious metal is currently benefitting from the global turbulence and the fact that investors have reposed their faith in the yellow metal as against other supposedly safe assets. Gold has emerged as the best investment option in times of economic uncertainty like the one confronting the globe currently. Peter Hambro, Chairman of Russian gold producer Peter Hambro Mining, is making no exact price predictions, but expects the price to continue its rise through 2009.

Over the short-term, gold always responds to whats going on in todays market and that is what we are seeing today, Hambro said. But over the medium-to-long-term, the underlying supply and demand fundamentals have a bigger part to play in determining the price.

Gold production fell last year and may fall further in 2009. This is partly due to the lack of exploration success by the gold mining industry which discovered 15 million ounces last year, compared to production of 80 million ounce.

While the supply of gold looks like it may slow, Hambro foresees little slowing in demand.

On the demand side, the rising wealth of emerging economies is likely to support jewellery demand, while ongoing financial turmoil and inflationary pressures will continue to stimulate investment demand, Hambro said.

Nice recovery today.

Worth having a look at this presentation...

http://www.peterhambro.com/uploads/PHMAricomPresentation5Feb2009.pdf

POG (515p) From Minesite:-

February 09, 2009

As Long As Investors Are Able To Put The Past Behind Them, Peter Hambros Offer For Aricom Looks A Win-Win For Both Sides.

By Alastair Ford

At some stage you have to set a point of reference. In the case of the ongoing takeover of Aricom the point of reference was set - by the preference of both companies - at 585p per PETER HAMBRO MINING share. That was the level at which the Russian gold miners shares were trading on 4th February, the day before it announced that the offer level was likely to be one Peter Hambro share for between 15.77 and 17.14 Aricom shares. With market expectations duly set, the offer then came in at a reasonable midrange, at one-for-16. That, according to the above point of reference, values each Aricom share at 36.6p,which works out at a juicy premium of several hundred per cent for anyone who called the bottom back in November, when Aricom shares were bumping along at a lowly 6p each.
Of course, you can the shine off that number in any number of ways. For one thing, almost as soon as the share exchange ratio was announced to market Peter Hambro Mining then revealed that it had raised over 60 million at 450p per share, with key directors participating in the fundraising. Bam! Peter Hambro Minings shares plunged back towards the levels at which the directors and the big money bought in. And, bam! the offer for Aricom looked almost immediately the poorer.

Another way to the shine off the offer is simply to remind anyone concerned that all the big money came into Aricom at 70p. No need to rub it in, but hundreds of millions of dollars poured into Aricom at the height of the boom for the express purpose of developing two massive iron ore projects that will not now, for the immediate future at least, get built. Even on the 585p Peter Hambro share price, the investors who came in at this level have, as things stand, lost close on half their money. And at the time of writing, Peter Hambros share price was actually 499p, so the losses actually amount to more. Aricom chief Jay Hambro concedes that Peter Hambro Mining shares will need to go well over 1,100p before all the investors he brought in during that blaze of boom time optimism and glory back in 2007 will make good their losses.

Still, on the plus side, Peter Hambro shares have hit that sort of level before, and indeed, gone much higher. In the aftermath of the fundraising Peter Hambros shares may languish at the 500p mark for a while, but actually the trick the company has pulled off leaves it looking very well positioned indeed. As an Aricom shareholder, you could do worse than nuzzle up to the bosom of a new parent which has a target of 500,000 ounces of gold production in its sights, in a strong gold price environment, and with costs looking relatively low. With this latest fundraising Peter Hambro Mining has cleared its decks of debt, and removed virtually all financing risk. The Russian discount remains, of course, but then Aricom suffered that too. Londons analyst community, often split on partisan lines between supporters of Randgold and supporters of Peter Hambro, are now beginning to shift their allegiance back to Peter Hambro, as FTSE-100 tracker funds push Randgolds valuation beyond reasonable levels. With Aricoms hundreds of millions of dollars on its balance sheet, on the other hand, Peter Hambro now looks undervalued.

And so what if there are a few ways to take a shine off the deal? There are a few ways to put a gloss on it too. Try this from Jay Hambro: most companies with development projects have lost around 90 per cent of their value in the crash of the last few months. This deal crystallizes the drop in Aricom shares at something in the region of 50 per cent, depending on which point of reference you use 585p, todays price, or the 398p price also quoted by the two companies as being the last closing price of Peter Hambro Mining before the offer price commenced. That last puts a value on each Aricom share of just under 25p. But whichever you use, that drop in value from the 70p where the big money came in still significantly outperforms the market.

Then theres the strength the enlarged group offers to both sets of shareholders. Sure, the equity money that comes in with Aricom is now be earmarked to cover Peter Hambro Minings debt rather than for the construction of the Garinskoye and K&S iron ore projects. But Aricom was only halfway to funding these in any case, and in what looks to be a new financial order the enlarged Peter Hambro Mining probably stands a better chance of getting them funded into production, supported as it is by cash flow and the consequent greater flexibility in the timing of development decisions. Theres some feeling inside the new emerging organization that gold will act as a source of profit during the tough times, but that come a global revival of large scale industrial activity, the iron ore assets will once again come into their own and add real value. At that point, who knows, Peter Hambro shares may just be back at over the 1,100 mark. Now thatd be a nice point of reference for all concerned.

Iron Ore in demand..

China News Summary
A daily summary of the major financial stories in China

Monday, February 09, 2009

China steel prices at nine-week high, iron-ore demand congests ports
by Kim Hunter Gordon


China stocks rose, led by metal shares. The Shanghai Comprehensive Index advanced 1.99 percent to 2224.71.


Chinalco (601600,SH; 02600,SZ), China's largest aluminium producer, surged to the 10 percent trading cap after aluminum prices gained 3.3 percent to RMB 12,220 a ton today after the company appointed former executive Xiong Weiping as chairman, replacing Xiao Yaqing. Goldman Sachs raised Chinalco from "neutral" to "buy".


Jiangxi Copper Co.(600362,SH; 00358,HK), China's second-largest smelter of the metal and Yunnan Copper (000878,SZ), the No.3, both surged by the 10 percent trading limit.



China steel prices at nine-week high, iron-ore demand congests ports


Steel prices are at a nine-week high and according to China Security News, a steel industry association official has said there is space for a further rise.


The surge in demand has caused congestion at Chinese ports off-loading iron-ore that is contributing to rising ocean freight rates. The Baltic Dry Index, a gauge of commodity shipping costs, advanced a 14th day. The steel industry accounts for almost half of all dry-bulk cargo.
With a 7.5 percent tumble in hot-rolled steel prices traded in Shanghai last week, it is clear demand is mainly driven by rod products for the construction boom being initiated by China's economic stimulus plan.


Wuhan Iron & Steel Co., China's fifth largest steel producer, was among the companies who raised March price. Tangshan Iron & Steel Co. (000709,SZ), the pulicly traded unit of China's second-biggest steelmaker, surged 10 percent limit.

Angang Steel Co.(000898,SZ;00347,HK), China's second-biggest mill, rose 5.08 percent on Shenzhen trading.


China Cosco (601919,SH; 01919,HK), the world's largest operator of dry-bulk ships, rose the 10 percent limit. Rizhao Port Co.(600017,SH), China's largest iron ore port, rose 9.07 percent.


Wheat output uncertain as China fights drought


The worst drought in half a century in northern China has affected about 161 million mu (10.73 million hectares) of crops, according to state news on Friday.


Last Wednesday, China raised the drought emergency alert level from orange to red, the highest level. On the same day, the central government announced it would earmark RMB 300 million for local governments, in addition to 100 million previously allocated.


On Friday, the Ministry of Finance advanced RMB 86.7 billion (US$12.69 billion) from its reserves to drought-hit areas in relief funds.


The MOF ordered local governments to channel the funds to rural residents who are dependent on wheat production as soon as possible. In the worst drought-stricken provinces, the funds should arrive within one month.


It is still too early to estimate the influence of the drought on his year's crop but sales of irrigation equipment will rise for certain with of government support.


As of last Friday, 5.5 million irrigation machines have been deployed in drought relief. The Ministry of Agriculture said it would offer farmers subsidies on irrigation equipment purchase to aid the relief work.


Shares of pump manufacturers gained significantly. Zhejiang Leo Co.(002131,SZ), China's largest micro-pump producer, surged by its third consecutive 10 percent limit today.

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/4343/china-steel-prices-at-nine-week-high-iron-ore-demand-congests-ports--4343.html

News in brief: Gold prices set for $1,000 mark

Chris Thomas
09.02.09 12:57


Gold set for $1,000

Expectation is growing that the price of gold is to leap towards the $1,000 mark and beyond, as the global financial instability leads investors to increasingly turn to the metal.

Goldman Sachs has recently adjusted its three-month forecast for gold, upping it from $700 to $1,000., following in the footsteps of rivals Morgan Stanley and UBS.

As well as uncertainty over the world's economy, expectations of a weaker dollar will act as a further boost to prices of gold which is seen as a relative safe haven in times of volatility.