chav
- 17 Aug 2011 08:43
- 5138 of 6294
Marky..lucky for the guys/gals, that write these Broker notes, that the sp's don't have to hit their targets before they are paid!
aldwickk
- 19 Aug 2011 19:52
- 5142 of 6294
1114p that's more then a 30% gain , isn't pro ?
markymar
- 21 Aug 2011 13:49
- 5144 of 6294
No penguins for the accidental Wiltshire oil baron
Sam Moody had no experience in oil before setting up Rockhopper. Now he aims to make a fortune in the South Atlantic. Is he smart or just lucky?
Andrew Davidson Published: 21 August 2011
Recommend (0) Comment (0)PrintFollow Business Sam Moody threw in life as a stockbroker to downsize in the country (Phil Yeomans)
Heres the thing if someone you were helping with a property deal said to you, By the way, I think theres oil in the Falklands, shall we drill for it?, would you look at him like he was slightly bonkers? Or plunge straight in and set up the business?
Sam Moody, former City stockbroker and a downsizer to Wiltshire, went for Option B. That was in 2004 and just look at him now: chief executive of Rockhopper, the listed oil explorer that is already worth 565m and could eventually be valued at a whole lot more.
Could is the key word here. Potentially we are looking at a pretty big discovery, says Moody, but investors want to know the final answer after every well we drill. We just dont know yet.
And he says it sitting in a converted farmyard, 10 minutes drive from Salisbury Rockhoppers base for an operation that is taking place 8,000 miles away in the sea round the Falklands. You could be forgiven for thinking this is one of the stranger stories in British business.
One thing is clear: Rockhopper has discovered oil. It announced that last year. And last week it raised its estimate of how much might be recoverable, causing another flutter in its share price. The start-up is one of five firms drilling around the Falklands, but the only one to have found success causing much anger in Argentina, which disputes the islands sovereignty.
Thats one reason the oil giants leave the Falklands to the minnows. Another is the distance and lack of local infrastructure. For Rockhopper, it will be a challenge. The firm has only 15 full-time employees; most of its work is contracted out.
Bigger companies are happy for us to spend our risk capital proving something is there, smiles Moody. Then maybe they are happy to pay a higher price for a hugely derisked asset; thats probably whats behind it.
Sitting in cords and check shirt, rain lashing down in the courtyard behind him, the 41-year-old Moody looks more like an off-duty farmer than an oil explorer. He has black curly hair and tanned good looks, and is modest with a confidence that comes from success.
Smart or lucky? Bit of both, he replies, stressing the five years of research his company did before chartering a rig. But he knew nothing about oil when he started Rockhopper; it seems extraordinary he could now be running such a valuable firm.
And it really did stem from a suggestion made by a contact he was helping Richard Visick, a lawyer and property entrepreneur who owns a small island off the Falklands and had watched previous drilling attempts in the 1990s. Visick left the Rockhopper board last year so he could sell his shares freely but retains a substantial stake.
Many in the oil industry are still sceptical. The waters round the Falklands are deep and treacherous. And Rockhopper is all loss having raised 325m since listing in August 2005 despite its executives being generously rewarded. Moody earned 705,000, including bonus, last year. Thats a lot for a loss-maker.
Its a billion-dollar company, he shrugs. So whats it doing in a farmyard? Because I spend 8 a square foot here, he says, gesturing at the string of converted barns. Why would I piss shareholders money down the drain in Mayfair?
He has a point. Whats important is what happens in the Falklands. And right now Rockhoppers rig is drilling well after well to ascertain the size of its Sea Lion field. Every month or so, it releases another report that causes another share price flutter. Over 18 months it has yo-yoed.
Moody sighs. Volatility is not a good thing, but you know when you are in a risky industry like exploration that it is inevitable, he says. We are much less risky than many people think because we have drilled a discovery well and three really good appraisal wells. We have a good handle on it.
For Rockhoppers investors which range from large City institutions such as Fidelity, Credit Suisse and GLG to a raft of small investors its still a nail-biter. Will Rockhopper develop the find itself, or call in partners, or simply sell out to an oil giant and walk away with the cash?
Good question, replies Moody. That is being debated internally at the moment. It will be a function of what we find in the remaining wells at the end of the appraisal campaign. The good thing for us is that we have 100% of the asset, which is extremely unusual for a company of our size.
So he could sell the company, or the asset, or just a bit. Every single possibility is being considered. His own stake in the business, 4m shares, is already worth almost 9m even though the stock market has slumped. The business, he says, is worth at least three times its present market value.
The big imponderable is the attitude of Argentina if development starts. Some other South American countries, including Brazil, have backed their neighbour in refusing to help with any Falklands development, and this will make logistics and safety problematic. Should a leak occur, Britain is a long way away.
Moody, somewhat disingenuously, says international relations do not affect Rockhopper. We are not political. We are operating under a legislative regime that the British government assures everyone is properly constituted.
As for logistics, Rockhopper has been drilling there for 19 months. There has not been a single days delay as a result of a logistical problem, says Moody.
And Rockhopper named after the penguin that inhabits the Falklands has insurance and an oil-spill response plan. We do everything as safely as we can.
Moody is still an unlikely oil boss, gentle in demeanour and amiably persuasive. Even his rivals like him. Tim Bushell, chief executive of Falkland Oil and Gas, another of the small explorers, says the Rockhopper boss has been clever in surrounding himself with highly experienced oil professionals. But theres no ego with Sam were all a bit of a club.
That club meets regularly to discuss common problems. Theres always been a general industry cynicism about Falklands exploration, adds Bushell. Rockhopper has done more than anyone to dispel that.
Rockhoppers chairman, Pierre Jungels former boss of Enterprise Oil says Moody is a clever leader with a rare emotional intelligence. He recounts how Moody and Visick turned up at his door one Saturday morning in 2004, and just won him over. Sam has the characteristics I really appreciate in executives. Hes bright, he has empathy, hes calm under pressure, and he knows what questions to ask. Thats important.
Moody is also far more driven than he appears. The adopted son of a Bristol lawyer, he worked in the City for a decade before returning to the West Country with wife, child and 300,000 raised by selling their home in west Londons suburbia.
He had planned a new life as a consultant, helping others raise money with his City connections. Then he met Visick. Rockhopper was just one interesting project among many.
But there were other factors, too. Outside work, a family tragedy the death of his adoptive sister made him rethink what was possible. Seeing my parents get through that made me realise people can do anything.
So he threw himself into Rockhopper, and his lack of experience in oil may actually have helped. He had few predefined ideas about feasibility and likelihoods; he was simply pragmatic. He found his exploration director, Dave Bodecott, a veteran oilman, after Googling for executives with a knowledge of the Falklands.
But 10 years ago he was stockbroking for Axa Equity & Law. Doesnt he pinch himself now and ask, what am I doing, running an oil explorer? Yes, says Moody, but he has learnt fast. He also knows its a deadly serious business.
An oil rig is real people, offshore, far away from home for a long time, doing difficult work its vital you never forget that, he says.
And risk is ever-present politics, logistics, safety, oil price swings, the difficulty of raising capital. One of the biggest risks we have at the minute is the global financial situation. That might have influence over getting finance. Were in discussion with banks at the minute and theres no sign yet, but its definitely there.
So will Rockhopper develop or sell? Whatever is most beneficial for shareholders, he repeats. A decision isnt likely until next year.
Jungels says Rockhoppers biggest challenge will be convincing the markets that what it holds is worth much more than it is currently valued at.
Moody concurs, adding that the current drilling should make everything clearer. If we ended up with 300m barrels recoverable, and the net present value [after costs] of that oil was between $10 and $15 a barrel, that gives you an answer as to what it is worth. And thats just the Sea Lion field. If you look round the world, its quite unusual to get a basin with only one discovery.
So there could be more? Moody raises his eyebrows. However, he cautions, everything depends on cost, price, time... A whole matrix of things. Please put in those caveats.
But if Rockhopper does develop Sea Lion, he sees no reason to move from Wiltshire. We would need more engineers, more processes, but we could do it from here.
So Salisbury becomes the new Houston? Not with this weather.
And is staying in the oil business now part of his life plan?
Moody grins. If I had a life plan, I wouldnt be sitting here now, would I?
gibby
- 21 Aug 2011 19:28
- 5145 of 6294
i tried
big correction coming gl
markymar
- 22 Aug 2011 09:55
- 5147 of 6294
Rockhopper exploration (LON:RKH), a Falkland Islands oil explorer, this week announced an exploration update, increasing its estimate for how much oil it could find and extract at its Sea Lion complex.
Anticipation of a big oil find off the coast of the Falkland Islands has been speculated since the early 1990s. In 1998 Shell drilled six test wells, but it wasnt clear whether there was enough oil to make extraction viable.
Improved technology and the rising price of oil have intensified the search for oil over recent years. The Falkland Islands is broken down into two basins; the North basin, which is the shallower more promising area and the South basin, which spans a larger geographical area, but deeper more choppy waters make it harder to access.
Each basin has two main exploration companies Rockhopper and Desire in the North and Falkland Oil & Gas and Borders & Southern in the South. Since last year, when the Ocean Guardian rig was taken down to the area and commissioned by each company to drill a series of test wells, Rockhopper has been the only one to have found oil.
On Monday, Rockhopper announced that new seismic data indicated its Sea Lion discovery in the North Falkland basin could extend further than expected. Chief executive, Sam Moody said we are highly encouraged by the interpretation of new seismic data which identifies both significant reservoir extension and the existence of two additional fan prospects above and beneath the Sea Lion Main Complex.
As a result, the company raised its lowest case estimate of oil to 608 million barrels from 516 million and on a conservative recovery factor of 30%, 325 million barrels of oil could be produced, over 60% more than previously thought. Yet the share price has been suppressed by general weakness in equities and the market has failed to reflect the scale of this discovery.
After spending previous year around 50p, the initial finding last year sent the shares over 1000% higher to 520p. Since then they have drifted back towards recent support at 202p and despite the strong news flow this week, the shares have failed to react.
I believe the shares are a buy ahead of a Capital Markets day next month, when the company will promote itself and outline plans for the development of the groups Sea Lion discovery, as it tries to raise its status among institutional investors.
At the time of writing the share price is 207.5p and near term targets are seen at 228p, 243.75p and 276.5p, with a stop loss at 191.8p.
This report was written by Mark Allen Head of derivatives at Simple Investments Stockbrokers. The writer does not hold a position in Rockhopper, but client accounts may.
gibby
- 22 Aug 2011 10:09
- 5148 of 6294
marky please tell me cost of barrel againt infrasture needed getting it and shipping it
then weigh that against local nations having a brit co taking the hard to gain oil
gl
gibby
- 22 Aug 2011 11:40
- 5150 of 6294
there will be a 3% margin if lucky
however dropping oil prices and other costs will cause problems - sorry
not deramping just facts
you drill anywhere in that region it will cost big especially after des desaster as costs not so easy to be shared now
i like it though i ask a question you fire back with another one
gl
gibby
- 22 Aug 2011 11:51
- 5152 of 6294
marky i have a massive spreadshert i cannot post
any major will tell you the costs for free - dont need me ask them
gibby
- 22 Aug 2011 11:54
- 5153 of 6294
and dont forget dilution costs headingin in
gibby
- 22 Aug 2011 12:14
- 5156 of 6294
marky sinopec and other majors have run the rule over rkh
trust me nohing worth hanging aroud for
dont make life hard fo yourself and others
MAJORS NOT INTERESTED
gl