Rockhopper exploration (LON:RKH), a Falkland Islands oil explorer, this week announced an exploration update, increasing its estimate for how much oil it could find and extract at its Sea Lion complex.
Anticipation of a big oil find off the coast of the Falkland Islands has been speculated since the early 1990s. In 1998 Shell drilled six test wells, but it wasnt clear whether there was enough oil to make extraction viable.
Improved technology and the rising price of oil have intensified the search for oil over recent years. The Falkland Islands is broken down into two basins; the North basin, which is the shallower more promising area and the South basin, which spans a larger geographical area, but deeper more choppy waters make it harder to access.
Each basin has two main exploration companies Rockhopper and Desire in the North and Falkland Oil & Gas and Borders & Southern in the South. Since last year, when the Ocean Guardian rig was taken down to the area and commissioned by each company to drill a series of test wells, Rockhopper has been the only one to have found oil.
On Monday, Rockhopper announced that new seismic data indicated its Sea Lion discovery in the North Falkland basin could extend further than expected. Chief executive, Sam Moody said we are highly encouraged by the interpretation of new seismic data which identifies both significant reservoir extension and the existence of two additional fan prospects above and beneath the Sea Lion Main Complex.
As a result, the company raised its lowest case estimate of oil to 608 million barrels from 516 million and on a conservative recovery factor of 30%, 325 million barrels of oil could be produced, over 60% more than previously thought. Yet the share price has been suppressed by general weakness in equities and the market has failed to reflect the scale of this discovery.
After spending previous year around 50p, the initial finding last year sent the shares over 1000% higher to 520p. Since then they have drifted back towards recent support at 202p and despite the strong news flow this week, the shares have failed to react.
I believe the shares are a buy ahead of a Capital Markets day next month, when the company will promote itself and outline plans for the development of the groups Sea Lion discovery, as it tries to raise its status among institutional investors.
At the time of writing the share price is 207.5p and near term targets are seen at 228p, 243.75p and 276.5p, with a stop loss at 191.8p.
This report was written by Mark Allen Head of derivatives at Simple Investments Stockbrokers. The writer does not hold a position in Rockhopper, but client accounts may.