http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/32622/rockhopper-explorations-sea-lion-estimates-are-conservative-says-merchant-securities--32622.html
Rockhopper Explorations Sea Lion estimates are conservative, says Merchant Securities
12:48 pm by Jamie Ashcroft
Rockhopper Explorations (LON:RKH) estimate that the Sea Lion oil discovery contains 325 million barrels of recoverable oil is conservative according to
Merchant Securities analyst Brendan Long, who reckons the shares are worth 10.70 each.The analysts punchy valuation, which implies that Rockhopper is worth about five times more than its current market value (today it trades at 214p a share), follows last months upgraded resource estimate.
The pivotal report was based on revised seismic and appraisal drilling results. Apparently the upgrade settles the debate on the discoverys commerciality, as far as Rockhopper is concerned.
Rockhopper, on August 15, revealed that by its own estimate - based on the latest 3D seismic data and its recent drilling success - the Sea Lion oil discovery contains between 608 million and 1.279 billion barrels of in-place oil. It believes that it can achieve recovery rates between 30 and 40 per cent, therefore it estimates that the Sea Lion contains around 325 434 million barrels of recoverable oil.
A flow test a few weeks earlier also proved that the Sea Lion could produce oil at commercial rates, achieving a stabilised rate of 5,508 barrels of oil per day.
According to Merchant Securities Brendan Long the recent wave of positive news flow, particularly the most recent seismic and drilling results, have greatly reduced the investment risks related to the primary Sea Lion discovery known as the Main Sea Lion Fan Complex.
Long also points out that, because of the recent stock market sell-off, Rockhopper shares do not fully credit the positive developments.
Rockhopper's positive announcements have been muffled by the coincident flare-up of stresses in the financial markets (late July and early August), leaving scope for further near-term stock appreciation, Long said.
The two sand bodies that comprise the Main Fan Complex appear to be high quality and straightforward reservoirs. We consider that the two sands provide good visibility relative to other oil & gas assets at similar early stages of appraisal, Long added.
Speaking with Proactive Investors, Long said: Rockhopper is the one company that has successfully found oil in the Falklands. It is a bird in the hand, and it is dirt cheap.
Aside from this potentially lucrative bird-in-the-hand, in his note to clients, Long also stressed that Rockhoppers acreage still contains low cost exploration upside and these exploration targets continue to be enhanced by the appraisal of the Sea Lion.
Three prospects - B15, Casper and Kermit - are directly below the Main Fan Complex and testing them will simply involve drilling appraisal and development wells for the Main Fan Complex a few hundred meters deeper, the analyst said.
We think that the prospectivity of B15 has been considerably improved by the most recent seismic and drilling results.
Brendan Longs assertion that the Sea Lion estimate is conservative is based a number of factors.
First he points out that the most recent competent persons report, completed last summer by RPS Energy, estimated that the Sea Lion spanned an area of 27 square kilometres, whereas Rockhopper now believes the mid-case area covers 68 square kilometres a 150 per cent increase from the RPS estimate.
According to Long the data used in the 2010 RPS report that the mid-case estimate of oil-in-place would be around 674 million barrels. Using the 674Mb as a starting point and increasing it by 150 per cent gives 1,685 million barrels of oil in place, he explained.
This is substantially higher than Rockhopper's current mid case estimate of oil in place of 1,086 million barrels.
We have reviewed actual well data and compared it to the estimates used in the June 2010 RPS report and have found that actual data has been in line with or exceeded the expectations of RPS (water saturation, formation volume factor, net pay and porosity).