http://www.falklands-oil.com/

http://www.rockhopperexploration.co.uk

http://www.argosresources.com/




Rockhopper was established in 2004 with a strategy to invest in and undertake an offshore oil exploration programme in the North Falkland Basin. It was floated on AIM in August 2005. Rockhopper was the first company to make a commercial oil discovery in the Falklands. Today Rockhopper is the largest acreage holder in the North Falkland Basin, with interests in the Greater Mediterranean region.

Week commencing 19th Sept '11 for next news. Date for all those punters who wish to be in before the RNS.

Greekman, think marky is entitled to take over his own thread.....lol

As said, I have no problems with any of Markys post.

Just getting up to date after a hectic period.

I agree with BB - it was Marky who started the thread after all so (without wishing to encourage Pros!) he is entitled to sound off in here. In the past he has shown a special interest and a sound knowledge of this particular company.

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/32622/rockhopper-explorations-sea-lion-estimates-are-conservative-says-merchant-securities--32622.html

Rockhopper Explorations Sea Lion estimates are conservative, says Merchant Securities
12:48 pm by Jamie Ashcroft

Rockhopper Explorations (LON:RKH) estimate that the Sea Lion oil discovery contains 325 million barrels of recoverable oil is conservative according to Merchant Securities analyst Brendan Long, who reckons the shares are worth 10.70 each.The analysts punchy valuation, which implies that Rockhopper is worth about five times more than its current market value (today it trades at 214p a share), follows last months upgraded resource estimate.

The pivotal report was based on revised seismic and appraisal drilling results. Apparently the upgrade settles the debate on the discoverys commerciality, as far as Rockhopper is concerned.

Rockhopper, on August 15, revealed that by its own estimate - based on the latest 3D seismic data and its recent drilling success - the Sea Lion oil discovery contains between 608 million and 1.279 billion barrels of in-place oil. It believes that it can achieve recovery rates between 30 and 40 per cent, therefore it estimates that the Sea Lion contains around 325 434 million barrels of recoverable oil.

A flow test a few weeks earlier also proved that the Sea Lion could produce oil at commercial rates, achieving a stabilised rate of 5,508 barrels of oil per day.

According to Merchant Securities Brendan Long the recent wave of positive news flow, particularly the most recent seismic and drilling results, have greatly reduced the investment risks related to the primary Sea Lion discovery known as the Main Sea Lion Fan Complex.

Long also points out that, because of the recent stock market sell-off, Rockhopper shares do not fully credit the positive developments.

Rockhopper's positive announcements have been muffled by the coincident flare-up of stresses in the financial markets (late July and early August), leaving scope for further near-term stock appreciation, Long said.

The two sand bodies that comprise the Main Fan Complex appear to be high quality and straightforward reservoirs. We consider that the two sands provide good visibility relative to other oil & gas assets at similar early stages of appraisal, Long added.

Speaking with Proactive Investors, Long said: Rockhopper is the one company that has successfully found oil in the Falklands. It is a bird in the hand, and it is dirt cheap.

Aside from this potentially lucrative bird-in-the-hand, in his note to clients, Long also stressed that Rockhoppers acreage still contains low cost exploration upside and these exploration targets continue to be enhanced by the appraisal of the Sea Lion.

Three prospects - B15, Casper and Kermit - are directly below the Main Fan Complex and testing them will simply involve drilling appraisal and development wells for the Main Fan Complex a few hundred meters deeper, the analyst said.

We think that the prospectivity of B15 has been considerably improved by the most recent seismic and drilling results.

Brendan Longs assertion that the Sea Lion estimate is conservative is based a number of factors.

First he points out that the most recent competent persons report, completed last summer by RPS Energy, estimated that the Sea Lion spanned an area of 27 square kilometres, whereas Rockhopper now believes the mid-case area covers 68 square kilometres a 150 per cent increase from the RPS estimate.

According to Long the data used in the 2010 RPS report that the mid-case estimate of oil-in-place would be around 674 million barrels. Using the 674Mb as a starting point and increasing it by 150 per cent gives 1,685 million barrels of oil in place, he explained.

This is substantially higher than Rockhopper's current mid case estimate of oil in place of 1,086 million barrels.

We have reviewed actual well data and compared it to the estimates used in the June 2010 RPS report and have found that actual data has been in line with or exceeded the expectations of RPS (water saturation, formation volume factor, net pay and porosity).

Looks like it's being contrarian today and whilst the rest of the market falls it makes a pleasant rise. And long may it continue!
TT

certainly no news out

There has been about 9 brokers notes out on RKH of recently they have a price range from 6 to 12 surely they cant all be wrong so something has to give at some point as it very much undervalued.
Still a pleasant surprise to see it up while the stock market slumps again.

Where there is oil, there is more oil most of the time !.

they need somebody with deep pockets to farm into sea lion.

My pockets are deep, nothing in them.lol

Maybe be Hal we might have a better idea after the AGM if not then in September some time they are holding a capital market day

A Capital Markets Day:

brings together select groups of companies and relevant institutional investors for meetings grouped around sectors, topics or geographical regions
is an effective way for companies to seek new investors, broaden their shareholder base and communicate their investment story
takes place at the London Stock Exchange's Media and Business Complex

The junior oil and gas sector could be stirred up by mergers and acquisition activity as larger oil companies stalk undervalued quality oil stocks, according to Merchant Securities analyst Brendan Long. Yesterdays news that Lochard Energy (LON:LHD) is potentially being bid for by an unnamed third party shows that cheap high-quality oil stocks are takeover targets, Long said in a note to clients.

(Larger) oil companies are challenged to grow production and therefore they have an inclination to acquire production where possible. They have strong balance sheets and strong cash flows which allow for acquisitions, Long said. Meanwhile oil equities are cheap and oil prices remain very strong (actually they are rising), Long points out. Furthermore, hes certain that some of the highest quality oil companies are some of the cheapest.

Specifically he picks out Max Petroleum (LON:MXP) and Rockhopper Exploration (LON:RKH) as two examples of these cheap, quality oil stocks. Turning his attention back on Lochard, a company which recently re-invented itself by selling its drilling fluids business and re-focusing on upstream oil and gas, the Merchant Securities analyst upped his core valuation to 22 pence a share

AGM today so lets see if we get some postive feed back.

Presentation from AGM

http://www.rockhopperexploration.co.uk/pdf/AGM-slides-2011.pdf

From SmicerVlad on iii

RKH AGM notes 06/09/11

Please refer to the AGM presentation at
http://www.rockhopperexploration.co.uk/pdf/AGM-slides-2011.pdf

Thanks to all who have posted their thoughts on the AGM today.

Below are my notes and the recording of the Q&A session from today - minutes to follow.

Disclaimer: the questions and answers are from my own notes and contain no direct quotes. Where I have put xxxx xxx is my scrawled notes of a quote and not to be taken as literal but recounted to the best of my knowledge. Anything in brackets is my thoughts or how I interpreted the context of what the speakers were saying and body language etc.

PJ: Dr. Pierre Jungels
SM: Sam Moody
DB: Dave Bodecott
PDC: Peter Dixon-Clarke

CPR: Competent Persons Report
WT: Well Test
OIP: Oil in Place
WOW: Waiting on Weather


After introducing the BoD PJ said the AGM would take the format of Himself, Sam, Dave and Peter each making a presentation and then a Q and A session, followed by the formal section (resolutions etc).


PJ:
Where we stand:
Hopefully theses presentations will satisfy most of you who have been posting your questions on internet bulletin boards.

RKH has over recent months acquired an extremely high level of expertise in house. This ranges from all staff, to the BoD, who are now of a suitable level for a FTSE 100 company. Looking back over the last financial year - with various fundraising activities taking place its important to note that the book build for 200m was described as oversubscribed it was in fact completed in 1hr and 10 mins.

14/10-6 was a stunning result and as a result estimates of OIP have been raised. Due to the new 3D seismic, new exploration targets are being identified, these include Casper and Kermit. These new targets are of extreme interest to the board.

Prior to 14/10-2 the CPR declared mid case for the entire Sea Lion complex was 170mmbbls @ 23% recovery. Post 14/10-2 the mid case was 242mmbbls from the same CP. When RKH submitted the data to the CP and discussions took place it was clear that due to the lack of data from the 14/10-2 WT the CP would not agree with the BoD on the OIP. After due consideration the board decided not to commission the CPR at that time and wait until complete data could be supplied to the CP.

There will be at least 3 more appraisal wells on Sea Lion the next two (8 & 9) will be drilled in locations that allow them to explore the potential of Casper and Kermit. These last appraisal; wells will delineate the Sea Lion main fan to the satisfaction of the CP and allow them to produce a CPR which reflects the Boards view of Proven and Probable reserves, which is the main hurdle for entry into the main market.

Since the FEED process has begun the prices of long lead sub sea items has increased considerably. But the production economics of the Sea Lion field as it stands today are extremely robust. During the process it has emerged that the quality of oil that could be produced from Sea Lion would be within a fraction of the price of Brent Crude. This has been confirmed by refineries in America and the Far East, which both have suitable facilities to refine. We feel that we will be in a position to make a final investment decision in 2012.

SM:
The seismic in the south has been undertaken on the area around Ernest.
The Company has made a number of key hires this year, in Operations, Development G&G and HSE. Andy, Paul, Fiona etc are all valuable members of the team.

Up to 500 people were working on behalf of RKH during the recent 5 months of 3D acquisition and the well test. This shows how far weve come in the last year. The rig was on hire for 300 days, with only 15 days WOW, this is very good.
There have been NO environmental incidents to date - HSE is an absolute priority.

DB:
The new staff have brought with them a huge depth of resource to the company.
There are 10 geologists and geophysicists working under Fiona and Daves management.

We are chasing fans, they are relatively easy to spot on 3D.

14/10-3: Adventurous step out. Likely oil updip as did find oil in 3rd sand WFT possibly in north and shallower area. Possibly escaping to nearby locations through feeder, likely basin margin plays.

14/10-4: Another fairly adventurous step out. 200ft downdip from #2. OWC is much further west than they were hoping. They were looking for thick sands. The OWC has shown them that there is a great contrast between water and oil bearing sands on the logs. Internally upgraded to 500mmbbls OIP.

14/10-5: Drilled a thick area of the reservoir, updip from #2 specifically planned and designed for an optimal well test result. The results of the well and test were stunning. ~300ft net pay (no water bearing sands). This kind of result is very rare outside of parts of brazil and the middle east - similar to Buzzard field in NS - although slightly less perm and por. Great 3D interp from the team so congratulations to them.
Over 9000bopd is the correct rate as quoted in RNS. Over 5000 stabilised. No pour point or wax inhibitors used at any point in the test.

Commercial flow rates proven.

14/10-6: Bold step out and was the first well DB was not highly confident about. They were deliberately targeting a reservoir thin. Stunning result 36m net pay in a new area, proved up a much bigger area and increased OIP greatly. This and 7/8/9 also provide a good geological spread for the CP and will deliver the key info so that the CP agrees with RKH when the new CPR is produced in Q1. The lower sand was a great quality, but below OWC at this location. 3D shows it pinching out updip so provides good upside potential. There is 200ft sitting updip above the OWC - DB very keen to drill.

Future wells:
14/10-7: less favoured, reservoir thin, but must be done to provide valuable data to CP. 8 and 9 are appraisal and exploration wells.

Exploration potential:
Casper - comes from newly located feeder in the east. Kermit from the same feeder. Chatham - would like to drill updip from 10-6 location in to Chatham.
All this that has been discussed so far today is just one play type - Sea Lion main fan, there are still the basin margin and pinch out plays, Johnson and associated condensate and all the new prospects that are being identified on the new seismic.

A lot of results and analysis still coming in by the day - including core analysis and samples from previous wells.

PDC:
Most of PDCs presentation is in the slides - but bits that may not be (I havent looked yet) are:

Industry standard equation shows that the campaign cost so far is 26 cents per barrel in ground, comfortably below $1 per barrel in ground when you factor in recovery rate.
At the end of well 6 we have $170m in the bank - this is factoring in all known charges that we have yet to be invoiced for.
RKH have chartered an Airbus A330 to transport workers to and from the FIs as there were some problems with relying on other methods.
RKH have mobilised two Super Pumas to the FIs - one to act as Search and Rescue and one as staff transport to and from rig. This allows for 24/7 access to rig and ensures workers are not knackered when they get there! (I added knackered, as I didnt write what he actually said).
All this means that logistics costs have grown from $100,000pd initially to $900,000 now.
Deferred tax assets - all exploration outlay can be recouped when we go into the production phase.


Right. If youve got this far you probably want the Q&A session - see the link below to a recording of the whole thing. For those who cant access it for any reason - I will minute in the next day or two and post up.

Overall I am very pleased I attended. If not just to hear PJ say that if its over 400mmbbls then well probably buy an FPSO

recording from the AGM

http://www.mediafire.com/?1yi7wft7fpjt88h

More from the AGM question asked

What was particularly interesting was the willingness of the BOD to engage with PI's after the formal meeting. I had some really open discussions with several board members and gleaned the following which may not of have been mention elsewhere;

1. When asked the question, do you share your seismic results with Des the answer was no but because of our farm-in they are obliged to share results with us.
2. When asked is there a deal to be struck with Des the answer was "what do they have to trade"?
3.When asked about Johnson the answer was, Johnson is the elephant in the Territory. We need to fully appraise Sealion and raise new finance to do justice to properly exploring and appraising such a large field.
4. When asked about Johnson and condensates (to answers Oilbrat's question) the answer was they would be very surprised if they failed to discover significant condensates within the Johnson field.
5.When asked, will you self develop or farm-in or sell Sealion the answers was " it is a risk reward judgement, we exclude nothing but the driving consideration is what gives the best risk reward return to shareholders.
6. When asked if Sealion was likely to be the biggest field within the RKH licenses the answer was, maybe the largest fan play but with what they know now there could easily be even larger fields.
7. Asked what was going to be said at the Capital Markets day on the 16th that was not reported at the AGM, the answer was more detailed financial info but that they expected it all to quite quickly feed back through the BB's.
In answer to the question do you follow what is written on the BB's the answer was "you bet" and that some of the "oilies" were uncannily spot on with their analysis. Sometimes posts were so interesting in fact that they generated serious discussed among Board Directors.

A good, well balanced and professional BOD in my opinion and as open as it was possible to be without infringing their fiduciary duties.

.

Notes from AGM taken from III some one talking to DB

OK guys here is my report from the talk that a couple of us had with Dave Bodecot at the end of the AGM. It is not complete because I joined a bit later and mostly remember the answers to my own list of questions (some of them from Smicer). Marlon or any of the other guys that were there, feel free to add or correct.

DB reads the bulletin boards. It is a way of getting information about what questions shareholders have, so they can address them. He did not know MM but was pleasantly surprised when Marlon introduced himself.

I asked a question about the SW in 10-3. If the SW could turn out to be different (hopefully a couple of % higher ;-) from the cores. DB replied they are still doing the special core analysis. It takes a long time. The SW comes from logs and they were quiet clear. They did find some live oil but not like in the other reservoirs. 10-3 did not disappoint DB because there was a lot of sand. And that is the most important thing. There might be some oil up dip or in the sand at the basin flanks. Possibly North, maybe S2 (less favourable after 10-3 results). But it needs to be explored.

He expressed his amazement about the share price after all the good results. Thinks we are very much de-risked and the volume is on an uptrend. Plenty of prospects to go for and he really wants to drill Johnson. Could be really big, hundreds of millions barrels of condensate. They do not know for sure but from the Shell drill it seemed that it was wet gas. You would need an LNG but it would be a big company to build this.

{DB was getting quiet enthusiastic when he talked about Johnson. Personally I think it would be great if they find a partner (maybe Arcadia??) to drill Johnson. It would mean they can keep the OG there and it would give them time to sort out the CPR and funding/partners for developing Sea Lion. For the record, this is my personal opinion, open for discussion}

He couldnt say much about the B sands. He wanted to wait for the complete seismic to be ready. Marlon asked about B60. Dave said it was a good reservoir, but they agreed there were bigger fish.

They are now focussing on appraising Sea Lion and getting the CPR with booked reserves.
He said they were open for anything if it was beneficial for the company and the shareholders, even sharing a well with Desire.

I asked a question about 14-10-7. He said it is in a less favourite area like 10-6 because thinning reservoir. Still 10-6 gave more sand and oil than expected. More news in two weeks.

Then I asked about if they were going to put the results of the core analysis in the open. He said they had 800 something feet of cores and it takes a long time to analyse. But when ready they would probably announce the results in once.

I asked if there had been people from RKH in Singapore. He said yes their development people were there looking at fpsos. They were also in Houston. Then I asked (cheeky question ;-) if Sam Moody was also there and he said yes. Then I asked if SM had been talking to people from the investment fund of Singapore, but he did not know that. Then he was asked to talk to some other people and we thanked him for his time.

I must say Mr. Bodecot was very relaxed and open with his answers. He really took the time to address all our questions.

I hope this gives some extra information and food for thought.

Yeast

Now what has caused that jump - 237 and rising?