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24 hours to go to get into position for BOR's Darwin.

Depending on weather of course !!

Probably going to try to stop (short term anyway) RKH from moving any further, to deter any farm in interest.

http://en.mercopress.com/2012/02/07/cristina-fernandez-expected-to-make-major-announcement-on-falklands-and-oil

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Much ado about nothing, she did not even attempt to cancel the weekly flight from Chile.

The major announcement seems to be that she is not happy and very very frustrated and unable to do anything, therefore she is going to lump the problem on the UN (eg I am deflecting all Argentines to look to the UN who already are very clear on the Falklands and will do nothing) and then can walk away from this little hot pot and her ramping statements about getting them back which she used to get elected and stopped people looking at the terrible economic conditions in which they now live - and can now sit back and point at the UN being useless and not her as BOR and FOGL drill for oil and RKH try to farm out.

EG, looks like she has given up for now - and can you blame her. State of the art T45 destroyer there, nuclear submarine, planes and soldiers - no chance for invasion - US interest in Falklands assets, BOR and FOGL drilling, RKH farming out - everything moving ahead fast - does she want to be seen being the leader that let this all happen after telling her people she would get them back in 2012 ? or is she going to be super slippery now and deflect it all over to the UN by talking about their involvement............... I'll let you guess.

Some large multi-million trades in there today.

Extremely ODD (for me anyway) trading pattern at 15.20

The trades are all buy sell buy, with interesting combinations. Can anyone provide more info on the market makers actions here.

I either see market volume boosting, and other pattern disguising your selling by putting in a vert small buy order for each sell, all at the smae price.....

The price went up, which means if anything someone was hiding their buying (not the selling).

At this stage of the game you will see hedge trading, so while BOR is a long a lot of people will be selling FOGL and shorting it as a counter hedging trade (so if BOR fails you win a little with a FOGL short - and if BOR hits you lose a little of your profit on the FOGL short).

Also at this stage we have seen a lot of people taking profit on BOR, so this is why the shareprice has gone sideways for some time - as people sell and derisk and take profit before results.

We are not perhaps 25 to 35 days from the result of Darwin - a very robust target. Of that there is perhaps 20 to 25 trading days.

So its now time for the gamblers and hot money to start coming into BOR, and we should see in the coming weeks plenty of buying in ahead of the drill results.

If you have a short on FOGL and BOR strikes lucky : you lose your shirt on FOGL....you might as well not bother....how do you reason this out ?....you cannot guess how the sp's will react...in my experience things drop like a stone and you then get stopped out at the bottom, way past your stoploss.....very dangerous game with cfds or spreads.....you'd be lucky to get out in time....you can be sure that your trade will be delayed....

RF - for BOR's Darwin drill.


If BOR strike BOR will go up 300% to 400% in the following days/weeks.

If BOR strike FOGL will go up 100% to 150%.

So a short on FOGL will mean your overall gain would be limited to 150% to 250% (BOR gain - FOGL gain).

Actually most people will close their FOGL short during the initial 50% spike and so it would be closed earlier and so the BOR gain would be bigger)

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If BOR fail they will fall 50%.

If BOR fail FOGL will fall 25%.

So a short on FOGL will cut your losses on BOR by 50% (BOR loss - FOGL short gain).


Hedging by "pair trading" is what it is called - look it up.

There is a risk with that strategy....If the news is released before trading opens and you are not watching your screen, the stop may not trigger.

stops will always trigger, but unless guaranteed, not necessarily at the price you hoped

I thought if it gaps up or down at the open, then tight stops will not trigger, assuming the opening price is outside the stop? Another reason why I don't spreadbet then!!!

The calculations are ridiculous....you can be sure that it won't work...you cannot guarantee the percentages that Prosels is mentioning,...it never works like that.....and I've had delayed trades where I've been stopped out at the worst possible price...only a guaranteed stoploss would save you and I bet you won't get one for these stocks...I've a long spread on FOGL and I have to say that I'm a bit nervous about it....

Maybe you would be better off not to have a stop loss for what good they are, if they fall wait for a bounce and sell or just sell .

It'll be very low so I'd wait for the following wells and a june contract is a must have....

When I think that we could have an incredible scramble to get in here......sp just starting to move.....fun, fun, fun.....till the daddy took the tuber away....

I wonder how our man on the rig is getting on......hope that sat phone is working.....

It's starting.....here we goooo.....sp creeping up.....I now declare that we either make it or not....faites vos jeux messieurs dames......

Anybody going to attempt a suicidal short on this ?....

Calm down dear! It's only a 2p increase!