New Projects and good prospects. will be the winner in 2004. IMO
25p in early 2004

Three large 300,000 trades appeared after 4.00PM. It is quite uncanny the way these always seem to turn up with this stock towards the close of business. We have seen this over recent weeks after which we've learned that either Gartmore or Fidelity have increased their holdings. Are we wrong to assume that they are still accummulating stock?

Morning Grevis,

Interesting note about the trades after 4.00PM. Hopefully it was Gartmore or Fidelity buying in again. I hope the Fool debate was of interst to you, it certainly was to me. SEY also up again this morning.

Read this bit from Oilbarrel and the conference last week:

A good model for Black Rock to follow might be that of Petroceltic International, which has also undertaken a successful transformation in the past six months. The ex-mining outfit is today one of the most exciting exploration companies in the sector.

We are the e side of E&P, managing director John Craven told delegates. We are an exploration driven company.

Investors have responded to the Petroceltic story, with the London share price climbing from 2p in November to more than 10p in June. The share price has not gone up by magic, said Craven. Its because we put in the activity and continuous news flow.

A chief driver of this success has been Petroceltics Tunisian acreage. Describing Tunisia as north Africa for beginners, Craven said the company had received a number of approaches from companies looking to farm-in to its Ksar Hadada licence in southern Tunisia, home to the 400 million barrel Sidi Toui prospect and a number of look-alike structures.

Looking good for PCI.

gavdfc: Thanks, that's excellent!

From what I've read on the Fool, it would seem that PCI did one of the best presentations out of the 5. Quite a lot of positive talk over on that board regarding PCI. I've been reading that board for quite a while and looked back over the posts for a few months, and talk re PCI just seemed to get better and better. Not going to get carried away re PCI, but i do think the potential is there.

From another BB:

The Sidi Toui was valued at 41p in the June
presentation:

http://www.petroceltic.ie/pub/June_30_2004.pdf

Just had a look at the other oil explorers such as Burren. They have nothing like the potential reserves like PCI but they are valued at 550mn, about 12x the size of PCI. There is a substantial room for growth here, and a successful drill at Sidi Toui will be indeed a company maker. Keep buying.

I read that as well Grevis. Just had a look again at the presentation slides, I especially like this bit:

Summary
High Impact Projects Underway in Tunisia, Italy & Celtic Sea
2 prospects in Tunisia
2 prospects in Celtic Sea
2 Prospects in Italy
New Projects in the pipeline
Present Market Cap: c.50.0m (9.8p/share)
Potential Value:
Risked: 200 million (41p/share)
Unrisked: 454 million (0.90/share)
+ Italy potential +100 million

And this part also:

Objectives/Strategy
To Grow Petroceltic to a significant Upstream Exploration Oil & Gas
Company with European and North African Assets
Project Requirements:
Large potential (Materiality relative to market cap)
Low risk
Low entry cost
Short lead time
Company Expertise in the area/project (focus)
Value Creation for shareholders

gavdfc: Thanks! Good extract. Have posted it on another BB.

Nice one Grevis. I especially like the part about value creation for shareholders and also to grow PCI to a significant upstream exploration oil and gas company. Reading the part about Italy potential 100m, would that not add another potential 20p to the SP on top of the 41/90p risked unrisked?

gavdfc: One could say it's only money, LOL!

Blimey! Can't take your eyes off the screens for a second. We suddenly have lift off.

Blimey! Can't take your eyes off the screens for a second. We suddenly have lift off.

gavdfc: MMs are buying. Offer has just gone to 12.25p

Superb Grevis!!!! Go out for a bit and come back to this!!! Any reason why Grevis?

gavdfc: It is reckoned that many were holding back hoping the price would ease.

Well doesnt look like the price will be easing back today. If buys keep coming in like this then it should move up again today. Couldnt see any RNS released today.

You never can tell. They've put out a few just lately.

should've topped up this morning.... still worth topping up at this levels as oil price is on the rampage again:



U.S. stock futures lower as crude prices rise
Tue 6 July, 2004 14:21

(Updates futures, adds new comments)

NEW YORK, July 6 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks futures pointed to a lower opening for Wall Street on Tuesday as investors worried about corporate profits following a jump in crude oil prices.

In addition, chip stocks could be under pressure after Conexant Systems Inc., the third-most active stock on the INET electronic brokerage in early trading, lowered its quarterly earnings forecast.

U.S. light crude rose in the first electronic trading since the weekend sabotage attacks on Iraqi oil pipelines cut exports. Crude prices, at $39.21 in New York, are also being pushed higher amid concerns about possible disruptions to Russian and Nigerian supplies.

Crude oil is a component of almost every sector of the economy, including manufacturing and transport, and higher oil prices immediately erode corporate profits.

"I see the markets starting off down because crude oil is down, Weston Boone, vice president of listed trading at Legg Mason Wood Walker in Baltimore said. "Geopolitical events are weighing on the market, and in addition we are starting earnings season -- so the question is will profits be as rosy in the second quarter?"

S&P 500 futures for the September contract fell to 1119.80, or 4.68 points below fair value.

Dow Jones industrial index futures fell 44 points, while Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 12 points.

"The reason why we are down today is the continued unrest in the Middle East and the prospects that energy prices do not seem to decline," John Person, head financial analyst with Infinity Brokerage Services, said.

"After last week's Fed rate hike, higher oil prices and slower economic indicators such as the jobs number will be the real issues investors are faced with right now," Person added.

Democrat John Kerry's decision to appoint North Carolina Sen. John Edwards as his vice presidential running mate was seen as slightly negative for the market.

"I think its probably positive for Kerry which is therefore probably negative for the market ... Wall Street is traditionally a conservative community," Boone said.

xmortal: Oil is up and so is PCI. Now seeing some fat 'buys' go through. Someone just bought 500,000.

Just got this email from Reuters:

Oil price climbs to one-month high
Tue 6 July, 2004 11:47



By Toby Reynolds

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices have risen to their highest in a month as supply disruptions in Iraq and Nigeria add momentum to a five-day rally.

U.S. light crude climbed 94 cents to $39.33 a barrel on Tuesday in the first trade since weekend pipeline sabotage cut Iraqi oil exports almost in half. The U.S. market was closed on Monday.

London Brent crude rose 56 cents to $36.86 a barrel.

U.S. oil has gained almost four dollars since last Tuesday in a rally carried along by Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi's comments that oil prices were "fair."

Since then other OPEC members have also said they were happy with prices at current levels, leading analysts to speculate that there may be no need for the group to carry out an agreed extra output hike for August at its next meeting, in Vienna on July 21.

Although extra OPEC oil, mostly from Saudi Arabia, has brought the market down from its early June peaks, when New York futures reached a record $42.45 per barrel, fears remain over the security of supply at a time when production capacity is stretched to meet strong demand growth.

Bulls received a brief boost on Tuesday from news that French oil major Total had shut in about 225,000 barrels per day of Nigerian production on Friday due to a workers' protest.

Upside momentum was capped when Total said it had restarted that output on Monday.

Analysts said that with Iraq still suffering from sabotage attacks and with traders fearing supply disruptions at Russian oil giant YUKOS, U.S. oil could easily top $40 again.

"We could well test the highs again," said Edward Meir at Man Energy. "We are seeing these incidents just hitting the supply situation, and who knows, that could keep going on."

Iraqi exports were running at 984,000 barrels per day (bpd) on Monday, down from close to two million bpd before attackers bombed a pipeline running to two southern oil terminals and another linking oilfields in the north and south.

Officials said repairs on the southern pipelines could be completed late on Tuesday.

Traders also are worried that Russia's biggest producer, YUKOS, may have to cut some of its 400,000 bpd of crude and refined products exported by rail and river in July, as it struggles to fund operations with its bank accounts frozen.

YUKOS, teetering on the brink of bankruptcy with almost $7 billion in tax arrears, said on Monday it planned no export cuts this month and had prepaid pumping deals with pipeline monopoly Transneft until the end of July.

The company pumps 1.7 million bpd and exports more than 70 percent of output in the form of crude or oil products, representing more than one-fifth of Russia's total production and exports.

I see can oil price is gonna surge, even thou it is nowt to do with OPEC this time... and I dont think OPEC will rise the output again. TOP UP NOW