I suspect trading tomorrow will probably answer this conundrum, but I know there are some far wiser owls than me that contribute to this bb & I would be interested in their opinions.

My question is this: the chart below looks to me like a pullback of the uptrend (ie when it went north through 14.00) however I am unsure as it has now broken down through 14.00 whether this is trending up or down :-(

So what do you think - up or down, or should I just flip a coin :-)) ?

UBS note (Summary):
"Following AHL’s recent weak performance – down 6% since February – and high levels of operational leverage, we cut our EPS estimates by 28% for 2012 and 31% for 2013.
We set our price target for Man Group at 140p (average of 150p bid valuation and 130p standalone). We reiterate our Buy rating ahead of the quarterly AUM update on 1st May. With low flow expectations, we see scope for the outlook to be better in Japan as the Yen has weakened and consumer confidence is improving.
Man Group is on the UBS M&A Watch List."

EMG is good value for money -
Many yield calculations for 2011 seem to be wrong as is only a nine month "year".
Director say they expect 2012 div to be 22 cents, or 22 / 1.60 = 13.75 p per share, based on new arrangement to distribute all base fee income.
That gives a 2012 yield at 96p ( current price ) of 13.75/96x100 = 14.32%
What fund manager would not like to pick up a yield like that ??????

I know assets under management on their "flagship" fund have been falling, but not many asset managers have had increases lately.

All it needs is a bit of market strength over the next 6 to 9 the months and the AUM will pick up, as I believe they may now be doing as Jan - Mar 2012 saw a FTSE rise.

The share price may value in a more "reasonable" yield of ?? say 8%.
8% yield would give a share price of 170p ( i.e. 13.75 / 170 x 100 = about 8% )

At present 96p it looks a bargin to buy and hold for 9 months.
EMG is a big Co and should carry little risk

Any comments please

I have bought many thousand EMG shares at average price of 106p.
I suggest you buy now or tomorrow when they will be cheaper but ex div.
I guess it also depends on market sentiment improving, but to me EMG
look good value

Any comments please

I too have bought some more to add to my several thousand bought at an average price of 143p. My thought is that emg is due a bounce which might exceed the ex div effect I.e. the divi may have little impact on hopefully a lot of shorts coming off. If I can break even I am out a least for the next few months, as I think the ftse will drift lower. H

Also joined the club, needed to ave, down from £3.40 now a respectable £1.36. More chance of getting dosh back if needed but who knows could be good to hold even just for the div. Things got to get better sometime.,.

sutherlh1 and Balerboy - Good moves
- price held well at open for ex div, plus you get ? 4.38p per share.

Lets hope we are in for a rebound from oversold prices.
UBS immediate target 140p and on their M & A list of take over
possibilities at, least 150p per share.

I'm putting a deposit on a yatch in Spain, you are both invited.

just what i need, look forward to that R.,.

Well done with these - a rise and 4.38p dividend.

150p would see me with a 20 percent gain. Look forward to spending it in Spain, thanks R for the invite. H

Bought in this morning. Could be open to a 50% + premium bid offer to the current share price.

Director told by investors to improve things - Hold on

About time.

StockMarketWire.com
Shares in Man Group have jumped around 8% after a strong broker forecast.

Societe Generale upgraded its recommendation from hold to buy. TP 115p.

Soc Gen note today:
"We move our recommendation on Man from Hold to Buy following the 35% fall in Man’s share price in recent weeks. In our view the positive momentum was too great following its results in March, and we now believe negative momentum is too great given the proven fundamentals of the business. Despite the market backdrop for hedge fund sales being challenging and the risks at Man being finely balanced, we see upside being driven by the likely improvement in either the industry backdrop or the performance of AHL (or both). We reduce our EPS forecasts and target price to 115p (was 155p) but retain our view that better flows and performance will return as the core qualities of Man’s distribution platform, product structuring capabilities and long-term investment performance are increasingly recognised. However, if these elements fail to return, we believe alternative upside could emerge from further cost reductions amounting to a potential US$75m, which would broadly reverse the EPS reductions made in this note. A bid for the company, while more likely than in the past, remains in our view a low probability outcome.

A Buy rating in the SG recommendation structure is based on the 12-month total shareholder return exceeding 15%. Man has already committed to a FY12 dividend of US$0.22 (prospective yield: 14.5%) and, based on the potential outcomes in the next 12 months, we see the potential for stock appreciation, offering a total return of 35%. While we appreciate the reasons for the recent share price weakness, as operating momentum is weak and sentiment low, we find negative price momentum is currently excessive.

How we value the stock Our target price of 115p is DCF derived (DCF details: CoE mgt fees 9.2%, CoE perf fees 19.6%, terminal growth 4%). Having adjusted for its excess capital balances, Man currently trades on 10.0x and 7.4x FY12e and FY13e total EPS respectively. On an ex-performance fees basis, it trades on 11.7x and 10.0x.

Events, catalysts & risks Q1 IMS: 1 May 2012. The main downside risk to our target price is that hedge fund investors remain cautious for longer, continuing the trend of quarterly outflows, or that AHL delivers material negative performance."

yesterdays purchase in profit..... keep going.,.

Assets under management AUM
Figure due out on Monday for Jan - Mar
and should add another few pence to share price

Forget Soc Gen calculations TP 115p
I agree with UBS, my Target Price is to touch about 150p pretty soon
(economic sentiment will improve well ahead of reality )

Any comments ?

I finally joined in here today, having missed the earlier rise and the dividend!!!!

GOOD LUCK SKINNY

Interim Management Statement.

Key points

· Funds under Management (FUM) at 31 March 2012 of $59.0 billion
(31 December 2011: $58.4 billion)

· Reduced net outflows in the quarter of $1.0 billion comprising sales of $3.1 billion and redemptions of $4.1 billion

· Positive investment movement of $2.0 billion in the quarter, with strong performance in a broad range of GLG strategies

- Gains of 5% or more in the European long/short, North American Opportunities, Alpha Select, Global Opportunity, Global Convertibles, Market Neutral, European Distressed, Emerging Markets and Multi-Strategy alternative investment styles, with long only Japan Core Alpha up 21.4% and Global Equities up 13.9%

- Three quarters of performance fee eligible GLG FUM at or within 5% of high water mark at end March

- Man AHL Diversified plc up 0.8% in the year to 26 March; AHL was approximately 14% from peak on a weighted average basis at end March

· FX and other movements of a negative $0.4 billion in the quarter, driven by guaranteed product degears after negative AHL performance in the rebalancing period: further degears of $0.4 billion on 1 April and $0.6 billion on 1 May

· Financial position remains strong, with a regulatory capital surplus, after a capital buffer, of approximately $550 million and net cash of approximately $250 million.

That will do for me out @ 102.2 + 6.2