http://www.gulfkeystone.com/ The firms exploration programme in Algeria is going well and "the shares look good value", say the Investors Chronicle. Your comments please. goal.

Nice bit of buying this morning....predators must be in the data room...:-)

much better day indeed

Its knocking on the door of 40p.....yet again.....

T5 set for summer deal with Gulf Keystone
21
Saturday, April 11, 2015Geoff Percival
T5 Oil and Gas — the Dublin and London-based exploration firm headed up by former Tullow Oil directors — is expected to take control of loss-making UK explorer Gulf Keystone before the summer.


The transaction is likely to take the form of a $50m (€47m) reverse takeover, with Gulf paying that much in its own shares for T5 and the latter, through that shareholding, effectively taking control of the London firm and inserting its own board and management.

The much-touted deal was thought to have been sidelined by Gulf’s recent $40m capital raise and the departure of chairman Simon Murray who was in favour of talking to takeover or investment partners as the preferred rescue remedy for the business.

However, it is felt within the industry that Gulf — which has an attractive asset base in Kurdistan, but is debt-laden and loss-making — will need much more investment and that the capital raise is effectively just a ‘stop-gap’ measure.

T5 has remained firmly interested; with the firm’s chances apparently being further strengthened by supposed rival bidder Genel Energy becoming more of a target in the market itself. While Royal Dutch Shell’s near £50bn move for BG Group has stolen the headlines, it is felt M&A activity in a sector rocked by the slump in oil prices is only beginning.

Earlier this week, Gulf Keystone reported after-tax losses of $248.2m for 2014 (up from $32m), although revenues grew from almost $7m to just under $39m.

The company’s interim non-executive chairman, Andrew Simon said Gulf remains committed to rebuilding shareholder value.

“All avenues for doing this are being considered... the company is continuing to engage in discussions with interested parties, in relation to possible asset transactions or a sale of the company, as well as considering additional routes to secure further funding,” he said.

Speaking yesterday, T5’s head, former Tullow Oil chairman Pat Plunkett, declined to say if he was confident a deal would be done. According to one industry source, however, even though the likes of Exxon Mobil had been touted as possible suitors for Gulf, T5 and Genel were more realistic and T5 is now the most realistic. The same source suggested a deal could be completed this side of the summer.

Mr Plunkett said the process is not moving forward at present, but his company would like to see it progress. He added that the deal model would allow Gulf’s existing shareholders maintain their interest, whereas a traditional takeover obviously would not, and that T5 could broaden Gulf’s portfolio —both in terms of geographical spread and asset base. Gulf is, currently, very reliant on outstanding payments from the Kurdistan Regional Government.

Meanwhile, Mr Plunkett also said this year will see T5 become very active in the marketplace. The company is eyeing firms and assets in need of investment, from which it will build a portfolio of licences, and has identified around six investment/reverse takeover targets active in the African and Middle-Eastern regions.

Earlier this year, T5 distanced itself from speculation that it might look to seize control of London-based/African-focused explorer, Afren. The investment firm is not interested in mounting any hostile bids for potential targets.

DNO boosts Kurdish oil output to record as export pay looms

DNO extended gains after the news on DNO’s production, rising as much as 8.2%

Bloomberg
April 10, 2015

Oslo: DNO ASA and partner Genel Energy Plc have increased production at their Tawke field in Iraq’s Kurdistan region to a record 150,000 barrels of oil a day as they expect more regular payments for exports.

Tawke is currently the largest producing field in Kurdistan in northern Iraq and DNO, its Norwegian operator, is on track with expansion plans to boost output and processing capacity to 200,000 barrels a day in the first part of the year, Executive Chairman Bijan Mossavar-Rahmani said in an email on Friday.

A “significant” part of production is exported through Turkey, with the balance sold in the local Kurdish market, he said.

DNO extended gains following the news on DNO’s production, rising as much as 8.2 per cent and trading 7.4 per cent higher at 12.4 kroner a share as of 3:30pm in Oslo.

Genel, which owns 25 per cent of Tawke and is Kurdistan’s biggest producer, said last week it expects a regular export- payment mechanism to be established over the course of 2015 following years of squabbling over oil revenue between the semi- autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government and central Iraqi authorities.

While the KRG and Baghdad struck a deal over exports in December, Kurdish producers have had to resort to discounted local sales to secure cash from operations as authorities hang on to export income amid a costly fight against militants from Islamic State.

“We’re fully confident that we’ll receive payments for our production and exports in line with our contractual terms,” Mossavar-Rahmani said, stopping short of providing a timeline like Genel.

“The operating companies in Kurdistan have made it quite clear that future investments will be driven by the timing and extent of payments.

And it’s in the interest of all parties that these investments be made.”
In the meantime, DNO is selling oil locally at as low as $30 a barrel, according to figures provided last month in a presentation. Mossavar-Rahmani declined to provide the proportion of production being exported.

The share of DNO’s working-interest output being exported reached 54 per cent in 2014, up from 43 per cent in the first three months of that year after Kurdistan boosted exports in the fourth quarter, according to calculations based on company filings. DNO’s Chief Financial Officer Haakon Sandborg said last month the company intends to increase local sales through the year.

“The update on DNO’s production figures probably contributed to the stock’s advance today,” Teodor Sveen Nilsen, an analyst at Swedbank AB, said in an email. “This shows DNO is making progress on ramping up capacity at Tawke. However, we are still concerned about weak first-quarter cash flow and the short term outlook for regular export payments.”

Genel rose 0.7 per cent to 521 pence in London after earlier falling as much as 1.4 per cent.

http://www.kurdishglobe.net/article/4B7C7D5EF5C392AEB67C1AD67BC0E339/MNR-Welcomes-passage-of-Oil-Gas-Revenue-Fund-Law-through-Kurdistan-Parliament.html
----------------------
(...)
It is another building block in the institutional development of our oil and gas sector.
(...)
Minister Hawrami added that other legislation provided for in the Oil & Gas Law of 2007 remained pending in parliament, including an MNR-sponsored bill to establish the Kurdistan Exploration and Production Company (KEPCO).

Another MNR-sponsored bill relating to the official marketing of Kurdistan?s oil (KOMO) is ready to be sent to parliament soon.

(?We hope the Kurdistan Parliament will give priority to debating these important draft laws as soon as possible,? Minister Hawrami said.)

41.25p + 2.125p

breaking the 40p that has been a resistance for some days.
higher OIL price is helping

They've released some new videos out last week GKP TV

Goldman Sachs... chart of
"Potential Buyers" v targets

from the Presentation says GPK oil will be injected into the pipeline at Fyshkhabour.

--------------
oil price had a m sive rise at the end of the day
Brent at $62.83 and WTI above $55.91 a barrel,

Goldman Sachs names oil takeover tips -- By Lee Wild | Wed, 15th April 2015

Goldman Sachs names oil takeover tips We've discussed the predicted round of oil & gas industry consolidation before. Following Shell's (RDSB) recommended bid for BG Group (BG.), few sector commentators have talked of little else. The same names tend to pop up pretty regularly. Now, Goldman Sachs and Jefferies add their tips into the mix.
"We expect well-funded majors and NOCs [national oil companies] to scrap high-cost, high-complexity projects and focus on gaining exposure to low-cost projects via M&A," says Goldman.

"We upgrade Tullow Oil (TLW) [target price 411p] and Africa Oil to Buy from Neutral, believing that both offer exposure to strategic assets which sit low on the cost curve. Other Buy-rated stocks screening as potentially attractive M&A targets are Genel (GENL) and Dragon Oil (DGO)."

It would make sense for the majors and state-run oil companies to scrap marginal developments, which need at least $80 a barrel oil to breakeven, and buy up projects lower on the cost curve currently owned by smaller explorers, it says. "We see projects with between five and 10mn bls/d of potential peak production, currently in the hands of the E&Ps, which could be transferred," says Goldman.

Potential buyers and potential targets are neatly summed up in the graphic below.

However, the team at Jefferies have slightly different ideas.

They reckon that rather than an anticipated "M&A frenzy," it is value and strategic rationale, rather than oil price outlook, which will be the true driver of deals.

The broker says Oil & Gas sector corporate transactions since October 2008 show a "steady spread of deals rather than a 'frenzy' at various times".

"The E&P weighted average of ~$16/boe [barrels of oil equivalent] for 2P reserves (15 deals) reduces to ~$13/boe including the two (yet to complete) IOC [international oil companies] deals. Crucially though, the targets fell to significant discounts ahead of bids, allowing sufficient premiums (49% on average) to get the deals over the line."

This causes Jefferies to look for stocks trading at a sufficient discount to $16/boe to allow a satisfactory bid premium, and with a clear de-risked asset (2P reserve) base or strategic rationale.

"We would argue that the most discussed M&A candidate of current and past years - Tullow Oil - does not come close to passing this screen and in our view the current renewed M&A hype surrounding the name is unfounded," says the broker. "Trading at $22/boe of 2P reserves and with mainly East African 2C resources unlikely to convert to reserves anytime soon (and expensive in contrast to partner Africa Oil) the value argument does not stand up and we remain sellers of this stock."

So, who is cheap?

"At the 'cheap' right-hand side of the charts Kurdistan and LNG resources dominate. We would point to $4.5/b for Kurdistan 2P reserves & $2/boe for 2C LNG resources as precedent deal metrics," writes Jefferies.

It likes Genel, but points out that all the Kurdistan names - including Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP) and Norway's DNO - operate under a high government take fiscal regime, which contributes to historic deal metrics at sub $5/boe of 2P reserves. "Value can be found in these names but it is relative, i.e. not comparable to the $16/boe metric in other areas."

Elsewhere, Ophir Energy (OPHR) shows as the cheapest stock on a 2P+2C basis at US$1.1/boe, although, similar to Kurdistan, "value is relative for LNG contingent resource also".

moving north spread of 39.25 v 40p
the trend of the last 3 days is very bullish

as the order book gets stronger on the bid side
There are about 20 trades at offer over 60p, so should not be counted on my opinion, but yet on toal is now a DEPTH of 64 v 55

After a few 100K buys finally the "AT"s move the prices higher breaking 40p again

has broken 40p and managing to hold above that for a while now, so positive in this point

Once again the trend of the last 3 days is looking very bullish
and now the DEPTH on the order book is very strong on the bid side 79 v 73
spread 39.75 v 40p

I still say there's a Fat Controller in charge of certain shares , making decisions.

What's going on here mentor , being controlled do you think.

yet another stock to avoid with little going for it

however, there are certainly plenty like me who allowed themselves to get suckered into this gem with all sorts of promises of reservoirs of epic proportions
as we all know, this has all turned out to be pretty hallucinatory, made yet more grim by the ongoing and worsening conflict in the region

Well I think ( only think ) if this KRG and this Iraq lot get paying what they owe GKP there is a good investment here . Even if they don't get taken out .

i would like to think you're right, but iraq is getting ever more bloody and dangerous