any one got a feelling in their water how far LLoyds will go looking to to buy but just dont know when they are low enough

See news below, the interesting part is the revised update from Panmure Gordon revising sp down to 350 from 410 but keeping the Hold rating.

Shares in Lloyds TSB Group Plc were lower midmorning following weekend press reports that the company is in talks to buy Allianz SE's Dresdner bank Unit.

At 9:28 a.m., Lloyds shares were down 6-3/4 pence at 320-3/4 pence, while the FTSE 100 was up 14.1 points at 5,634.9.

The deal may be worth about 6 billion pounds, said some reports. It may involve Lloyds swapping its Scottish Widows life-assurance business with Allianz in exchange for Dresdner's retail banking operation.

In a note, Panmure Gordon said such a deal offered few prospects for synergies and noted that talks were preliminary.

The broker has cut its target price on Lloyds to 350 pence, from 410, for reasons associated with a deteriorating UK macro outlook, rather than connected to the potential deal.

Retaining its 'hold' rating on Lloyds, Panmure said the focus was rising impairments, particularly on the 23 billion pounds of non-mortgage personal loans, noting that Lloyds has the highest market share in unsecured personal loans in the UK.

It also noted possible impairment to 20 billion pounds of property & construction loans, where it expects falling NAVs will lead to breached loan covenants putting pressure on developers and 30 billion pounds of loans to non-bank financials and others, and said it also expects impairments will rise on the 103 billion pounds mortgage book.

Panmure seem to have failed to realise that impairment or bad debt provisions are quite normal in the banking business, but then they are stockbrokers what do they know about banking. I am amazed at the way the stockmarket reacts to such guesstimates and ill informed opinion.

...from the very bearish Sandy Chen of Panmure
NHWe are cutting our forecasts and price targets to reflect the rapidly
deteriorating UK macro outlook. Talk of a German acquisition is preliminary,
with few prospects for synergies in our view.

We have revised our forecasts and price targets on LLOY to reflect the rapidly
deteriorating UK macro outlook.


NHThe focus, of course, is rising impairments, particularly on the 23bn of non-mortgage personal loans (LLOY has the highest market share in unsecured personal loans in the UK), the 20bn in property & construction loans (where
we expect falling NAVs will lead to breached loan covenants putting pressure on
developers) and the 30bn of loans to non-bank financials and others.

We also expect impairments will rise on the 103bn mortgage book.
None of the above is specific to LLOY; it is simply a reflection of the deteriorating UK macro trends. The last time that LLOY went through something like this, provisioning charges per RWA were 159bp in 1990, 252bp in 1991, 195bp in 1992 and 133bp in 1993; this time, we expect impairment charges per RWA will rise from 111bp in 2007 to 135bp in 2008 and 185bp in 2009.

NHHigher impairment charges are the main driver for our forecast downgrades. We cut our 2008 EPS from 46.7p to 41.7p, and our 2009 EPS from 49.1p to 32.6p. We have kept our assumption for dividends flat at 35.9p for now, but we note that with many of
LLOY.s peers having declared scrip interim dividends, we think that LLOY.s could cut its cash dividend by circa 30% and still look attractive as a (cash) dividend play.

We now expect that ROIC will fall from 13.2% in 2007 to 10.2% in 2008 and 8.5% in 2009.

PMi didnt know that -- largest unsecured lending book in UK
PMBit scary
NH
Our fundamental valuation models for banks are driven by the long-term prospects for
value-added margins. Despite the falls in ROIC, we still expect that LLOY.s ROICs will remain above its WACCs . i.e. we still expect that LLOY will create value over the next few years, something we do not expect for most of its peers. We do cut our share price target from 410p to 350p as a reflection of the lower value-added margins, but this still merits a Hold recommendation.

The ferocity of the recent fall (2008), shows that the Market is in Sell-mode - there being only falling, rather than a flattening-out ( of the sp grasph), as fears gradually subside. . . . . That's what we expect to see...isn't it?

LLOY,=a minute rise today, but I'm guessing we could see lower - HBOS is now lower than their Rights (DYOR), on "dividend reasons"; but my guess is it's foilks selling, expecting they can repurchase even lower.
Whowever said things were OK - no-one - so we are still in "falling prices".....that's likley to affect good and bad. Banks aren't top of our list of Best Buys, either.

High Street bank Lloyds TSB dishes out debit cards to children as young as 11

A High Street bank is giving children debit cards that could let them buy cigarettes, alcohol and porn videos over the internet.

Lloyds TSB is mailing the cards direct to children as young as 11 without telling their parents.

One 15-year-old boy used his to buy cheap cigarettes, Viagra and a fake adult ID online.

The father of the 15-year-old, who asked not to be named, believes Lloyds TSB is promoting illegal activity.

He said: 'I pointed out to them that by enabling children to purchase goods illegally over the internet, they were aiding and abetting a crime.

'Their response was that it was not down to them to monitor other people's children, and that teenagers who were brought up well would not abuse this facility.

MPs, consumer groups and parents have reacted with horror. LibDem Treasury spokesman Vince Cable said: 'It is deeply dispiriting. This is clearly motivated by short-term greed.'

In the past, children aged 11 to 15 who hold current accounts were restricted to debit cards that could be used only in cash machines or at bank branches.

The new cards could let them spend large sums on the web, potentially emptying their accounts, without their parents' knowledge.

Nice graph 98, really useful. Not.

Hyleo, it is no different to Pharmaceutical companies that have saturated adult markets for their drugs attempt to target kids irrespective of whether the drugs are appropriate for the different physiology e.g. Seroxat with its high incidence of suicide... profits before ethics

Some employee thought up this junior-wheeze, without thinking it through...and it seemed such a good idea the upper Execs nodded between lunches.

Of course it is wrong, far better to use the cards to teach children how to manage their money - perhaps use it to play a video-interactive at the Branch....would be better than that darn horse running about....whatever happened to the Scottish Widow? - get em orf, luv....ah well, to dream, maybe sleep.

Amanda, last time I saw her she was trying to flog spanish property!

How far will they go?

Look at the sp graph and it's pointing towards 2.50 with the possibility of a leveling out, or rebound perhaps.

I've bought a few at 3.09 which looks like 11% yield.... and have lost about 13% by the price quoted today.....2.73....oh dear.

So, I'm waiting before buying any more.
To get 20% yeild we need sp =1.83, which is looking somewhat unlikely as this would be a "magic number" and folks would become greedy well-before 2 was breached. . . . but DON'T bet on it . . . this Market has plenty of time to run.

Anyone guess what will be the stock-market tipping-point? I used to think it would be US-President, that's this year...or smell of London Olympics, after the bad-building has been rectified etc. maybe 2010.
But why?

h
buy for the divi yield
thats very sensible.
divi keeps us buying, or at the very least from not selling,
until?
if price gets to your 1.83 to yield 20 %, then as you say thats unlikely at this divi.
so what gives first? price or divi? .
or both?
even 11% looks too good.
if its too good to be true it usually is.
been so with this share for a long time.
now we know why.
good luck.
regards
jkd

what date is the divi due what date do you have to hold them on and whats the the latest date you can you sell them thanks

m47
i dont hold these,
but i am sure hangon will be able to give you relevent details.
cue.... hangon.
thanks and regards
jkd

lloy interim x-divi due Aug 8. @ 11.2p . Buy anytime before 8 Aug sell anytime after 8 aug The share price usually falls after ex div day

both rbs and lloy approaching my next entry price, what to do, decisions decisions, well I certainly won't buy both at this time. So will sick with lloy if they touch 255, and sit back and await the divi.

Why don't you buy them at 255p on the way up rather than on the way down ?

A very good question, I guess it could be difficult to know when we are going back up, rather than just a bear market rally. And I may find it hard psychlogically to put into practice, but you make a good point.

I haven't brought in just yet, but have left a cheeky buy order for the day at 148p, you never know in these markets.

Spitfire43 I have always thought a high yeild, anything in the teens for instance, was a market pointer saying this divi or the next one, is not a certainty, and there seem to be plenty of shorters are they willing to pay the div?, i think so. My family wdnt sell when lloy was at its peaks, I get no brownie points for being right but I hope lloy keep on paying!! cheers

Not long to wait for LLOY interim results will be announced on 30th July, shortly followed by BARC. The others excluding HSBA dont matter as they are unlikely to pay a cash interim dividend.

At the bottom of the bear market in 1975 the average P/E was under 4 and dividend yield was over 13%. With ICI yielding 13.4%, Tarmac 17.7% and Lex Service 43.6%. Worth bearing in mind when trying to work out how low we could go.