New Thread as requested by Wirral Owl.

6 Months Chart:-



10 Day Chart:-



Cheers

Ash

Record Production Figures From Principle Mine.

Avocet Mining PLC
09 May 200


FOURTH QUARTER GOLD PRODUCTION


Avocet Mining is pleased to announce fourth quarter gold production of 46,240
ounces, bringing the total for the financial year ended 31 March, 2003 to
134,581 ounces.


Gold production from Penjom in Malaysia amounted to 30,560 ounces for the fourth
quarter bringing Penjom's total production for the financial year to a new
annual record of 108,905 ounces. Total cash costs at Penjom are estimated to be
US$190/oz for the fourth quarter and US$204/oz for the financial year (2002:
US$239/oz and US$225/oz respectively).



Production from Zeravshan Gold Company (ZGC) in Tajikistan for the fourth
quarter was 15,680 ounces, bringing total production for the five months since
acquisition to 25,675 ounces. Total cash costs at ZGC are estimated to be US$278
/oz for the fourth quarter and US$284/oz for the five months since acquisition.



Avocet is a mining company listed on the Alternative Investment Market (AIM) of
the London Stock Exchange. The company's principal activities are gold mining
and exploration in Malaysia (as owner of the Penjom mine, the country's largest
gold producer), Tajikistan (as 49% owner and operator of the Zeravshan Gold
Company, Tajikistan's principal gold mine), and Indonesia (where it has an
advanced stage gold exploration property in North Sulawesi, currently at the
feasibility stage).









__________________________________________________________________________________________________

For further information please contact:

Avocet Mining PLC 4C Communications Ltd

John Catchpole (Chief Executive) Carina Corbett

Jonathan Henry (Finance Director) 020 8949 7171

020 7907 9000 020 7907 4761


www.avocet.co.uk
--------------------------


This information is provided by RNS

Buys flying in on this one and price already up 7%.

Dont miss the boat.G

LOL

Just done a review of what profit I feel Avocet will make after the production figures produced this morning and its quite an outstanding figure.
I have been slightly conservative, using a gold price of $310. I get the following:

Penjom = 108905*$116 = $11,543,930
Zerevashan = 25675*$26 = $667550

Total = $12,211,480 or 7,592,880

Pretty darn impressive for a company capitalised at just 17m!.

When N.Lanut comes on stream, you can add the following to your calculation :

50K production per annum @ cost of $150/oz. = $7.5m profit or 4.68m

(and that's taking gold @ just $300/oz !)

That then gives total pre-tax of near on $20m or 12m !!.

N Lanut will not be in this years account though.

G

from memory i think avm have hedged a proportion of this years production at 285$ - $310 might not be a bad average to have used. Depends how much AVM have decided to hedge this year

A company which is way undervalued in my opinion. Should be at least 45p to 50p based on its latest procution figures for the year.G

Analysts Predictions.


Analyst Forecast
AVOCET MINING PLC (AVM.L)

CONSENSUS RECOMMENDATION.


OUTPERFORM.



Consensus Next Earnings Company Fiscal Last
Recommendation (approx.) Year End Month Updated
Outperform 12-Nov-03 March 13-May-03




CONSENSUS ESTIMATES TRENDS


Current 1 Week
Ago 4 Weeks
Ago 8 Weeks
Ago 13 Weeks
Ago
Sales (in millions)
Year Ending Mar-03
Year Ending Mar-04
Earnings (per share)
Year Ending Mar-03 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.90
Year Ending Mar-04
Profit (in millions)
Year Ending Mar-03
Year Ending Mar-04
Dividends (per share)
Year Ending Mar-03
Year Ending Mar-04

Sales and Profit Figures in Pound Sterling
Earnings and Dividend figures in British Pence



ANALYST RECOMMENDATIONS AND REVISIONS


1-5 Linear Scale Current As of 4
Weeks Ago As of 8
Weeks Ago As of 13
Weeks Ago
(1) Buy 1 1 1 1
(2) Outperform 0 0 0 0
(3) Hold 1 1 1 1
(4) Underperform 0 0 0 0
(5) Sell 0 0 0 0
Mean Rating 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00




CONSENSUS ESTIMATES ANALYSIS


# of
Ests. Median
Est. High
Est. Low
Est. 1 Year
Ago
Sales (in millions)
Year Ending Mar-03 25.00
Year Ending Mar-04
Earnings (per share)
Year Ending Mar-03 1 1.90 1.90 1.90 4.80
Year Ending Mar-04
Profit (in millions)
Year Ending Mar-03 4.50
Year Ending Mar-04
Dividends (per share)
Year Ending Mar-03 0.00
Year Ending Mar-04

Sales and Profit Figures in Pound Sterling
Earnings and Dividend figures in British Pence



HISTORICAL SURPRISES


Estimate vs. Actual Estimate Actual Difference Surprise (%)
Sales (in millions)
Year Ending Mar-02 0.00 26.00 26.00 --
Year Ending Mar-01 26.00 25.00 -1.00 -3.85
Earnings (per share)
Year Ending Mar-02 0.00 1.44 1.44 --
Year Ending Mar-01 2.60 0.20 -2.40 -92.31
Profit (in millions)
Year Ending Mar-02 0.00 0.94 0.94 --
Year Ending Mar-01 1.70 0.19 -1.51 -88.82
Dividends (per share)
Year Ending Mar-02 0.00 0.00 0.00 --
Year Ending Mar-01 0.00 0.00 0.00 --

Sales and Profit Figures in Pound Sterling
Earnings and Dividend figures in British Pence



ESTIMATE REVISIONS SUMMARY


Number of Estimate Revisions Last Week Last 4 Weeks
Revised Up Revised Down Revised Up Revised Down
Earnings
Year Ending Mar-03 0 0 0 0
Year Ending Mar-04 0 0 0 0


G

I reckon this thing hit its peak at 37p when I bgt. in, barring another hike in the pog eg we attack Saudi or similar gut wrenching event, I see it rangebound


but------------!!!!!!!

When working out profit figures for this - or any mining company - beware of using cash costs.

If Ashley taught me anything at all (hi, Ash!) it's to find out what true production costs are and work on them.....however, most companies fight shy of publishing true costs, and only quote cash. There can be a HUGE difference.

POG now just shy of $355. Noted above re- to costs. This company will come out with around a 7.5 million profit and that is very conservative.G

Wendypops,

Hi trying to become a bit of a DJIA specialist so not really concentrating on AVM, but think this will hit 50p to 65p by end March to May 2004 or maybe sooner think this ABC will take us to 40p, believe very quickly when 30.50p pops.

AVM production costs high which gives you leverage if you can see a 6500 DJIA or 6000 DJIA by October, and gold above US$400

Watch gearing, watch Canacord interest, otherwise well boring but potentially hell of a lot safer than Minnie IMHO, saying which Malaysia and Kazakhstan?

Oh well who cares all I care about is the chart nowadays. (;-)0

All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc, etc

Cheers

Ash

Goldfinger,

AVM starting to break up now, needs to break 31p really for next stage 36p/36.50p.

1:50PM Gold futures close with a nearly $10 gain ($XAU, $GOX, HMY, GG) by Myra P. Saefong
Gold futures closed the session with a nearly $10-an-ounce gain as concerns about the dollar continued to keep investor interest in the precious metal high. June gold closed at $364.40 an ounce, up $9.50. Metals indexes are following suit, with the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index ($XAU) and CBOE Gold Index ($GOX) both up more than 3 percent. Shares of Goldcorp (GG) are up 6.4 percent to $11.68 and Harmony Gold (HMY) are up 5.5 percent at $13.45.

Gold on another 12345 break out, break above US$370 or triple bottom US$365 with break from support around US$367.50 will confirm IMHO

AVM has broken above 31p res, no surprises there

Gold has hit US$373.50 today, need I say more.

Ash, could be in for a good day Thursday. Many thanks for the charts much appreciated.G

Hi Ash. Are you "Investorglobe"? I think you are matey. I have noticed your ramping efforts vis-a-vis Petrel and Gresham. Desperate or what?

I put these things on moneyam where no-one will read them.

Love and kisses

Pat

No, nor do I have a clue who you are talking about you vile little man.

Petrel, no idea,post Iraq War Gresham never heard of it.
I only post on MoneyAM now, I hide my true identity with Mr Ashley James and Ash log ons, mainly in the Traders Room where people like you are err not welcome (:-)0

Patrick,

Surerly Petrel is a very risky punt given the turmoil in Iraq?
I'm sure this isn't Ash's style at all.

I think you're totally wrong with "investorglobe", if Ash has an id on ADVFN now, I could certainly guess closer that that! (Although I'm sure he hasn't -:)

have a good weekend!

Ashley is FAR too vain to post under anything other than his own name!

8-)