Some good news at last from this weeks Shares mag. Tim Freeborn revisits the company and altho no firm details are given about new deals he says they will be announced this quarter. I would think that this could be at the same time as the interim results are announced. I for one will be holding on cos they will fly sooner rather than later! ( 8.30% up today!)

I didn't think that there were any institutional shareholders left, I think that the last 1 that was left sold out in June.

Man Financial declared a 5% holding on 9th September. This is brokerage division of Man Group - some queries on this bb but natural conclusion that this was a 'matched principle' initiative to make loads of money. June comment presumably refers to Tallulah Properties who sold about 0.5% taking them below the threshold they need to report. What's that joke about 'turning out the light'? 69/31 ratio of buys to sells; 25% spread - interpretation?

Holding this from 3p. Have put it aside until it either goes bust or ballistic.

boothbym et al.

I've re-read the last trading statement - having shocked myself by switching some money from ASOS, of all firms, earlier today into EPO at 1.08p. Its not a particularly well-constructed document, but on second reading a consistent message does come through. Remember we are dealing with an innovative, high-tec IT company. Surprise, surprise - they have had problems/requirements with their IT systems, covering both facilities and performance. These have delayed roll-out and, where installed, have probably delayed build up in revenues. From the development timescales given, 5 months for ep5, the hiatus in revenue flows should not persist into 2005. This also suggests that the problem with RC is not that he can't communicate with customers and financiers but that he can't communicate with his IT people, who are probably the core skills of the company. How many people can? If this is the key area which has been impacting revenue roll-out, where is the discussion on this topic on this bb?

If my reading is correct, yes, more patience is needed until the final results when a much clearer picture should emerge. More important, then EPO should be back to 3p early in the New Year and perhaps 10p later in the year - that is only a cap. of 54M. It may be that, surprise surprise, Man Finance know what they are doing! Remember, it was said first on bulletin 532 and profit from it!

Eric

Eric,

You have hit the nail on the head..again!

Perhaps, you have shown what the board should be considering now...finding a ceo that understands the product and the sector.

The company has a CEO that doesn't understand IT !! Remind us all what his background is? Is it as a succesful financier? Is it as a highly successful businessman? Is he a great communicator and motivator? Is he a great salesperson? Just exactly what does he bring to the table apart from a pretty hefty bill for a company of this size,at this stage of their development?

The final results will show t/o of 1 mill or less, and losses of 5-6 million or more, imho!. The only way the revenue flows change in 2005 is if they have new customers now!!!

The betting revenues are 'disappointing' and everything else is what?...from whom? when?...The trading statement made some precise 'predictions' what's the betting they are 'delayed' again?

As for MAN, they are beneficial holders, not directly, so nothing can or should be read into their position...I admire your positive interpretation, but I cannot see what it is based on, their track record of disappointment is simply dire.

all imho, dyor and all that BS.

regards

T..

Its my view and i've been banging the drum for quite some time that until CEO is replaced along with some of NED's then we will remain in the wilderness, thats a fact.

Tradx666 mentions CEO career to date, if you can put all the pieces from the career jigsaw puzzle together then that in itself would be a major success.

Forget about the personalities, deal with facts, previous management failed & current management are about to follow. They have certainly misled Shares magazine and in my opinion others as well.

jonny,

I don't know if you noticed but shares mag, have since made their position on epo pretty clear,i.e. any investment here is to be treated as a VC type punt (or words close to that effect).. as for the rest of the stuff about deals done etc, it looks like we will never know..

As for the previous management failing, well at least they admitted it and moved on. As for current management, I have already made the point, the question is what do people deem as 'success' i.e. what are the metrics and expectations, and how long have they been in charge now?

Tradx, Johnny

Your standpoint is understandable. You may be right that the CEO should be fired. The continuity would then be through the Board of Directors. Looking at their profiles in www.earthport.com their credentials seem to be much as you would expect. An emphasis on non-executive posts with a non-executive chairman (is Andy Ripley the ex-england rugby player?). Seems to have good financial and legal representation. Anybody know any of these guys? It is fair to assume that RC, now a Director himself, would put the business plan (basis of the trading statment) to them for approval. RC himself comes across as primarily an entrepreneur although he has a business development background with Wiggins Teape and Midland Bank (at what level?).

I think it would be reasonable to expect that the Board will be well able to assess the financial, marketing and sales aspects of the plan. My concern is,if anything, reinforced that the plan is critically dependent on the ability of the IT and communciations teams to deliver on schedule and to spec., particularly performance. It may be that they have engaged a competent consultant to check this out. My concern would be that, given the cashflow issues, that they are taking the IT plans on trust from line management.

In the end of the day it comes down to risk assessment and we don't really have the facts to do the job. The Board should have and may have. What are their contingency plans? Talking about 'risk', the funds I have invested are risk funds in that it would be annoying rather than disastrous if they went down the pan. Risk has an upside as well as a downside and I repeat my view that they should recover to 3p on delivery of their plans and 10p if they then move round the bend of the S-curve. Evens on the first? 2 to 1 against for the second within my timescales (say 18 months)? I accept you have to be a gambling man!

Eric

EPO stated in trading update that 3 customers go live in october, i took this
to mean contracts already signed.
Are these new customers/deals or are their identities public knowledge?
Just wondering if i've missed something.....

dibbles

I see noone has answered your query from yesterday evening. I certainly have seen no names. The May international client was clearly Wanadoo. Several reasons why no names published: the client does not want publicity; the client is not a 'name'; the delivery is a trial rather than a full system.

I am not aware that thre is necessarily a significant sum payable to earthport on delivery as, I recall, the emphasis is payment by transaction volume. This is why sportingbet, etc., have been disappointing. Also why the IT updates are so important - if there are problems in handling transaction volumes, and functionality is incomplete, then transaction volumes and revenue will be low. The upside is that, once the updates are successfully delivered, there should be an immediate jump in revenue as existing clients increase their volumes.

Price up to 1.20p today on low volume with small sales predominating; wide bid/offer spread still.

Eric

Where has everyone gone? Interesting day. Price steady at 1.20p on 1.34M volume, split 16/84. Spread slightly down - 1.10 to 1.30. Interesting in sense that predominant sales have not moved price down suggesting some resilience. Mind, volumes are very low at 0.25% of equity. No conclusions, just thinking aloud!

Eric,

Your positive stance does you credit, but short term trading conditions are unlikely to get anyone excited, there are too mnay here, nursing too big looses to respond..

Once again, a promised RNS/update on the 'strategic' selling has not been issued. The man has to go. There are too many broken promises, too many leaks and too much disagreement about what has been said. It's time the board and it's advisors found some backbone, otherwise this company is doomed to sit at this level for a very, very, very long time - assuming of course it can finacially survive. The board have to find a professional replacement with a track record of delivery that investors can believe in.

regards

T..

Tradx - 23 Sep'04 - 09:54 - 540 of 540

Totally agree, don't be surprised if the EPO NED's are not already preparing to replace CEO.

A recent example is Richard North CEO at InterContinental whose recent sacking was described as brutal in sunday times, Chairman David Webster ( ex Safeway ) insisted Richard had done a great job, share price risen 67% since his appointment yet he had not right skills to manage business going forward.

I don't believe RC has the right skills nor experience to take business forward, to date hes not grown shareprice by 67% if that benchmark alone is important, then surely he must go.

RC makes statements about events due to happen, he lets himself down and damages credibility of EPO when no news appears, eg Brokers note we were told was due in July, no mention of delay in Trading Update, Airline deal told to Citywire May 2003, no news to date, Shares Magazine published info on proposed deals which again have not happened. We also understand an RNS due telling us about so called 'strategic' selling in EPO shares, still awaiting news. Why does RC bother, its not helping share price to date all these promises which never materialise.

He needs to learn very fast how city works, to date he' behaving like an amateur

Tradx, jonny wilkinson

Of course, you are both right. Its also a question mark against the Board that, not only have they retained the man but, they have appointed him to the Board. You can imagine him, with a persuasive tongue and, perhaps, a deal of charm, and, even, an entrepreneurial sharpness. I agree also that EPO need a safe pair of hands, tactical awareness and technology savvy.

My argument, though, is still that the present price is only justified if there is a real risk of EPO going to the wall. The argument favouring that outcome presumably is that, in a sense, they have played their joker with the last round of fund-raising so what would they use for their next trick? On the other hand, my view is their technology is worth far more than the current cap. - their must be players in the market who would pay to acquire it. I accept it is a high risk play (not VC but the same effect) but, like TF, I rate the upside gain worth the downside risk.

Eric

Eric,

if you do the financial numbers based on their interims, and even on the small insight granted by the trading update, it is at least clear to me that unless they pull off the deals they allude to, then they will once again have their backs seriously against the wall.

I cannot believe that after nigh on 3 years, that any financier would give this management another chance and deliver up cash to them, but then again, who knows?!

They must therefore be classed as being 'at risk' until or such time as solid financial info is in the public domain - I dread to think how much the legal costs are that they will be clocking up...

As for the value of the technology, we should all bear in mind that it is 'nothing more' than a large transactional database with standard api into other payment processing systems. Whilst a lot of money has been spent on it, this in itself is of no intrinsic value, it is only worth what people are prepared to pay for it, and unless it can demonstrate the ability to generate significant customers willing to pay for it's use, then its value will unfortunately be small. At the moment, I see no avalanche of customers racing to their door - if there were, believe me they would be telling us about it.

I hope the positive view prevails and they prove all the bears wrong, but I just cannot see it at the moment.

DYOR, all imho and all that BS

regards

T..

Tradx - 24 Sep'04 - 11:54 - 543 of 543

Agreed

agreed.............I don't understand why customers are not going to Earthport.........therefore one can only deduct there is an internal issue selling the product successfully.........surely the market is out there.....

Tradx, johnny wilkinson, astonvilla

I'm not sure who is still in EPO! rf is, boothbym is of recent contributors, I am. Anyone else out there? I suspect, in fact, that there are a number of people who have bought around 3p and are holding for recovery; the news pattern was established when the price had dropped to 2.4p. The trading review confirmed what was previously evident about trading. There were a couple of significant parts of the statement: that the company had raised essential working capital (together with structural steps to limit the overheads); that the company had embarked on significant revisions to their IT systems. The price continues to ease and may well continue to do so until such time as there is positive news that the IT revisions have been accepted by customers and prospects and/or there is positive new client info. or financial projections. My point is, that if one does not have any confidence that that will happen, then one should get out of EPO now, even with a 65% loss. If one believes that there is a reasonable probability that the Board will achieve their current business plan, one should be increasing the stake. I can't see that a middle way is credible.

I am agreeing with the credibility of Tradx's view. The company , from what we know, must be 'at risk'. But risk has an upside and a downside so this doesn't stop me taking a bet. I see your point about the transactional database but wouldn't use the term 'nothing more than'. It doesn't mean that such creatures are not expensive to develop and may, perhaps should, have significant value. astonvilla's query re the lack of new customers is answered by the IT point that decent revenue flows from existing customers and the sale of new customers is probably dependent on the successful launch of the updated systems.

I also think it worthwhile that we should keep this dialogue going. If you are out of EPO you are contributing, I suggest, because you see a potential killing being made from them, but that depends on some positive developments and does not mean an investment now. The problem is that the price will be marked up something cruel when, and if, that happens!

Eric

thanks for your comments Eric..........I for one appreciate them.....I am in EPO holding 400k shares at an average of 3.25p. I will not operate a stop loss on this share as I knew the risks when investing.....if it goes belly up then I will take it on the chin.......I was not hoping for a return on my investment yet i saw it as 2/3 years away but I was hoping for a firmer share price and good news. My personal view is that the Hong Kong venture is exciting and developing new markets........this is the only way long term this company can flourish...........but the facts are this is for the future.......It is important to keep dialogue going if just to realise you are not the only one in the ship :-))) I need to check the website but when is the AGM?.......next opportunity to see the board. Confidence has been dented but the upside is still potentially good.......market conditions are also not helping but lets hope '2005 will be Earthport's year' :-))))........have I heard those words before?

astonvilla

Don't think any forward dates announced but final results last year were on 26th November and AGM just before Xmas. Since year ends 30th June, presumably results could be earlier; however it will be the trading statement for first quarter and any forecasts which will be more relevant; will the three October deliveries have been made? are they holding their schedule for the IT projects?

I reduced my average cost to just over 2p with a purchase at 1.08p, accepting it could be good money after bad but reckoning the upside potential still had my vote. I hope that longer term users of this bb have not lost interest because there were comments from several closer to the company and any straw in the wind could prove beneficial. tf may have burnt his boats with rc, which would be understandable but unfortunate, because rc really does owe him (and therefore us) something.

Eric