http://www.falklands-oil.com/

http://www.rockhopperexploration.co.uk

http://www.argosresources.com/




Rockhopper was established in 2004 with a strategy to invest in and undertake an offshore oil exploration programme in the North Falkland Basin. It was floated on AIM in August 2005. Rockhopper was the first company to make a commercial oil discovery in the Falklands. Today Rockhopper is the largest acreage holder in the North Falkland Basin, with interests in the Greater Mediterranean region.

sp sinking again are we expecting bad news?

Hi Halifax,

Looking at the previous pre drill results periods, this is the sp manipulation acting the same way as before, the sp is initially up for very little reason, followed by a steady downward slope.
No doubt there will be several similar days before the latest drill results are out.

The best time I had with these shares was last September, when I went abroad for 2 weeks, and did not keep in daily touch with the sp.
During that 14 day period, pre flow test results for Sealion, the sp was up/down like the proverbial yoyo, at one time loosing almost 40% of its value, just after shooting up by almost the same percentage.
I know many sold during that period, due to panic. I posted on here when I returned from my holiday, that I did not sell for the pure reason that I was ignorant of all the scare stories of 'Dry Well'.
Whilst I like to think, I would not have been one of those who panicked, I can't be sure as its very unnerving to see any shares you hold drop by such a big percentage.
Whilst I accept they are at present even lower than they were at the lowest of that period, I think most of us accept that the value should be far higher now, due to all the de-risking that has occurred since.
So, bad news to come, perhaps, but I very much doubt it.
The oil already found must be valued at at least double todays sp, with any further volume enhancement a further premium on the price.

I usually do follow my share prices daily, as it is a hobby, but that does not mean I allow daily movements, without good cause to effect my thoughts on holding, although I do appreciate it doesn't always mean I don't feel like screaming at the walls sometimes.

The present drill, is as Chav indicates, a very complex to call drill, due to the combination of results that it may hold.
Whatever its outcome, it may be very difficult to call the result on the sp.

Regards Greek.

It does not take away the low-case 300mmbbls even if this one comes up dry,Kermit and Casper were always going to be complexed.

I will wait for the RNS,RKH keeps a tight ship even if the news was good it would not suprise me to see the share price under 2

Holding long term as it will come good in time.

Manipulation??? DES & ARG are also down today. They can't all be manipulated at the same time!

But they can.

Sometimes whole sectors are caught following trends.

By manipulation, I don't mean in direct terms, more like the rumor mill starts to work, which is far easier with PI mainly based small cap companies. We have seen this many times before with Rockhopper.
There are far more times when the sp has gone contrary to the news, than with it, so it can only be due to manipulating the mind of the investor.

don't forget that there are many battered PIs about, and in the case of FI oilies, there is not much of interest to be announced in the immediate future - e.g. RKH is just exploring the outer extents of sealion and no new finds of substance are expected ..... it follows that the stock currently has few buyers and any selling will magnify a fall

dud (not dry) well confirmed which comes as no real surprise, nor the accompanying slump in sp .... whether or not that then becomes a good entry point to buy is very much a personal view

============

slump was momentary and doubtful if one could have acted on it ..... sp currently down about 5p but would guess a bit more weakness to follow

Hi Cynic,

Not that bothered now till we receive the CPR that is expected toward the end of this year or very early in the next.
As you say, the result as not a surprise, although it does show the fault that they were aware of is only a narrow one (if thats the right term).
Most will look at the term 'DRY' and no further, so yet again we will no doubt see close today of either a static sp or a small drop.

For myself it is now a hold. Not because I feel the sp reflects this, but purely because I feel I am in as deep as I feel comfy with.
RKH is now the largest holding in my portfolio.

for the moment i don't hold any at all, but shall continue to watch with a view to getting back in in due course

Pro , has gone very bearish .


Proselenes - 11 Oct 2011 07:05 - 615 of 615

And there is the bad news.

All water wet.

Sea Lion, Casper and Kermit, all water wet on this well, no oil.

i only skipped through the RNS, but i don't think P's analysis is quite right

Very brave man, greekman, to have an AIM stock as your biggest holding! Not sure I would be comfortable with that for very long!

Dry holes.yes

But it has given a better understanding of Sea Lion fanwhat does it mean?

Its just added more oil as sea lion extends more than they first thought hence management saying SLMC is 1,297MMbbl; this was previously estimated to be 1,086MMbbl. So we have 200 mmbbls moresweet... enough said!!!!

aldwickk pro must of forgot to give the revised figures

Low:
844mmbbls STOIIP

Medium:
1297 mmbbls STOIIP

High:
1428 mmbbls STOIIP

ALL 100% OWNED BY RKH

Hi Harrycat,

You say, "Very brave man, greekman".

Remains to be seen, if its bravery or just rose tinted stupidity.

Almost all the shares I hold are AIM stock, at least 90% of my total shares held. I sold out of any that were in the main index before the latest market crash (although not quite as early as I should have done) as I expect the main FTSE to drop to around 4500 before things start to settle.

I agree, it does appear strange to only keep AIM stock, but my reasoning was that although all shares can be dragged down by the current financial crisis, it is only stocks like RKH that can increase in value by 25% plus and in a few rare cases, double overnight on the basis of just a single RNS no matter what happens in the financial crisis world, whereas the big players will never go over a 10% rises on a single RNS, or it is at least very unlikely.

As regards RKH, I do feel that if the CPR is as good as we hope and expect on the evidence already available, that double overnight might just happen.

I do though appreciate those aforementioned words, ifs and might.

With shares, I do tend to be a very high risk, high reward player.

I must add that my share holdings in total are not the main percentage of my investment portfolio, as I do invest elsewhere away from the stock market.

Regards Greek.

Sp should be double what it is......in normal circumstances this would be a takeover candidate with it being valued less than 500 million with so much oil in UK waters in the ground.....depressing to say the least, this market....

Rockhopper shares jump 5%

Shares in Rockhopper Exploration, the North Falkand Basin oil and gas exploration company, have jumped over 5% in early trading in London.

It had earlier provided an update on its latest exploration work at one of its Sea Lion wells.

Sam Moody, Rockhopper's Chief Executive, said that they were continuing to make progress in exploring the well's full potential and the optimal ways to both finance and develop it.

New Sea Lion figures
John Bradbury
http://offshore.no/international/article/New_Sea_Lion_figures_

Falklands explorer Rockhopper Exploration believes its Sea Lion discovery could contain up to 1.428 billion barrels of oil based on a new technical work.

New STOIIP (stock tank oil initially in place) figures for the Sea Lion area have been issued by Rockhopper today, indicating a range of low, medium and high estimates from 844 to 1,297 and and 1428 million barrels of oil.

Rockhopper's latest numbers are the result of further work with technical consultants on the results from wells 14/10-6 and 14/10-7. The company says it has refined its methodology for depth conversion of seismic over the Sea Lion Main Fan Complex (SLMC), which is says provides an improved fit with all of the recently drilled wells and provides an accurate prediction from the latest 14/10-8 well, which has resulted in an increased gross rock volume above the oil water contact area within Sea Lion.

In addition, the results of wells 14/10-7 and 14/10-8 have successfully demonstrated that the reservoir is well developed outside the areas of high amplitudes, therefore increasing the areal extent of the low and mid case for the SLMC post well 14/10-8 even though 14/10-8 itself proved to be water wet, the company has stated

Using these new data points and taking account of the relatively small area it believes was proven to be water wet by the latest 14/10-8 well, Rockhopper says that it has been able to produce the new figures for the oil initially in place.

Reporting on results from the 14/10-8 well, which was both an appraisal of Sea Lion and an exploration well on the Casper and Kermit prospects, Rockhopper said it was a dry hole and is to be plugged and abandoned. after hitting water wet sands in the the three target reservoirs.

The company believes that the well penetrated a relatively restricted area of the SLMC that appears to be separated from the rest of the SLMC by the fault to the north. The thickness of the reservoir encountered in the well has increased the company's confidence that good quality reservoir is likely to be present in other relatively low amplitude areas within the SLMC, Rockhopper said.

Furthermore Rockhopper chief executive Sam Moody said the work is now underway on finding finance for developing the field. He said: 14/10-8 has provided us with further valuable information regarding Sea Lion although its main targets proved to be water wet. We continue to make progress in refining our view of the field's full potential and the optimal ways to both finance and develop it.

Analyst view

The news proved popular with analysts in the sector. Evolution Securities' Keith Morris has tagged the stock with a 'buy' recommendation and 450p price target.

"This increases our risked value of Sea Lion from 666p to 797p. Whilst the 14/10-8 result is disappointing, the increase in the in-place resource in the main structure is positive for the commercial development of the field. De-risking of this development offers substantial share appreciation from current levels," he said.

Peter Bassett, analyst at Westhouse Securities, was equally bullish on the stock.

"The results of the 14/10-8 exploration well once again demonstrate that Rockhopper has an excellent understanding of the geology in this part of the North Falklands basin. The reservoir sequences that they encountered were all high quality with respect to the net-to-gross ratios and porosity, but unfortunately were not hydrocarbon charged.

"Adjusting our NAV for the exploration result and the increased resources on the SLMC structure to 1,297 mmbbl, our target price increases slightly from 643p to 658p per share. We retain our 'buy' recommendation," he added.

Guys, check out PVR (providence resources).....about to embark on a very aggressive drilling program around the irish coast....