http://www.falklands-oil.com/

http://www.rockhopperexploration.co.uk

http://www.argosresources.com/




Rockhopper was established in 2004 with a strategy to invest in and undertake an offshore oil exploration programme in the North Falkland Basin. It was floated on AIM in August 2005. Rockhopper was the first company to make a commercial oil discovery in the Falklands. Today Rockhopper is the largest acreage holder in the North Falkland Basin, with interests in the Greater Mediterranean region.

Pro , has gone very bearish .


Proselenes - 11 Oct 2011 07:05 - 615 of 615

And there is the bad news.

All water wet.

Sea Lion, Casper and Kermit, all water wet on this well, no oil.

i only skipped through the RNS, but i don't think P's analysis is quite right

Very brave man, greekman, to have an AIM stock as your biggest holding! Not sure I would be comfortable with that for very long!

Dry holes.yes

But it has given a better understanding of Sea Lion fanwhat does it mean?

Its just added more oil as sea lion extends more than they first thought hence management saying SLMC is 1,297MMbbl; this was previously estimated to be 1,086MMbbl. So we have 200 mmbbls moresweet... enough said!!!!

aldwickk pro must of forgot to give the revised figures

Low:
844mmbbls STOIIP

Medium:
1297 mmbbls STOIIP

High:
1428 mmbbls STOIIP

ALL 100% OWNED BY RKH

Hi Harrycat,

You say, "Very brave man, greekman".

Remains to be seen, if its bravery or just rose tinted stupidity.

Almost all the shares I hold are AIM stock, at least 90% of my total shares held. I sold out of any that were in the main index before the latest market crash (although not quite as early as I should have done) as I expect the main FTSE to drop to around 4500 before things start to settle.

I agree, it does appear strange to only keep AIM stock, but my reasoning was that although all shares can be dragged down by the current financial crisis, it is only stocks like RKH that can increase in value by 25% plus and in a few rare cases, double overnight on the basis of just a single RNS no matter what happens in the financial crisis world, whereas the big players will never go over a 10% rises on a single RNS, or it is at least very unlikely.

As regards RKH, I do feel that if the CPR is as good as we hope and expect on the evidence already available, that double overnight might just happen.

I do though appreciate those aforementioned words, ifs and might.

With shares, I do tend to be a very high risk, high reward player.

I must add that my share holdings in total are not the main percentage of my investment portfolio, as I do invest elsewhere away from the stock market.

Regards Greek.

Sp should be double what it is......in normal circumstances this would be a takeover candidate with it being valued less than 500 million with so much oil in UK waters in the ground.....depressing to say the least, this market....

Rockhopper shares jump 5%

Shares in Rockhopper Exploration, the North Falkand Basin oil and gas exploration company, have jumped over 5% in early trading in London.

It had earlier provided an update on its latest exploration work at one of its Sea Lion wells.

Sam Moody, Rockhopper's Chief Executive, said that they were continuing to make progress in exploring the well's full potential and the optimal ways to both finance and develop it.

New Sea Lion figures
John Bradbury
http://offshore.no/international/article/New_Sea_Lion_figures_

Falklands explorer Rockhopper Exploration believes its Sea Lion discovery could contain up to 1.428 billion barrels of oil based on a new technical work.

New STOIIP (stock tank oil initially in place) figures for the Sea Lion area have been issued by Rockhopper today, indicating a range of low, medium and high estimates from 844 to 1,297 and and 1428 million barrels of oil.

Rockhopper's latest numbers are the result of further work with technical consultants on the results from wells 14/10-6 and 14/10-7. The company says it has refined its methodology for depth conversion of seismic over the Sea Lion Main Fan Complex (SLMC), which is says provides an improved fit with all of the recently drilled wells and provides an accurate prediction from the latest 14/10-8 well, which has resulted in an increased gross rock volume above the oil water contact area within Sea Lion.

In addition, the results of wells 14/10-7 and 14/10-8 have successfully demonstrated that the reservoir is well developed outside the areas of high amplitudes, therefore increasing the areal extent of the low and mid case for the SLMC post well 14/10-8 even though 14/10-8 itself proved to be water wet, the company has stated

Using these new data points and taking account of the relatively small area it believes was proven to be water wet by the latest 14/10-8 well, Rockhopper says that it has been able to produce the new figures for the oil initially in place.

Reporting on results from the 14/10-8 well, which was both an appraisal of Sea Lion and an exploration well on the Casper and Kermit prospects, Rockhopper said it was a dry hole and is to be plugged and abandoned. after hitting water wet sands in the the three target reservoirs.

The company believes that the well penetrated a relatively restricted area of the SLMC that appears to be separated from the rest of the SLMC by the fault to the north. The thickness of the reservoir encountered in the well has increased the company's confidence that good quality reservoir is likely to be present in other relatively low amplitude areas within the SLMC, Rockhopper said.

Furthermore Rockhopper chief executive Sam Moody said the work is now underway on finding finance for developing the field. He said: 14/10-8 has provided us with further valuable information regarding Sea Lion although its main targets proved to be water wet. We continue to make progress in refining our view of the field's full potential and the optimal ways to both finance and develop it.

Analyst view

The news proved popular with analysts in the sector. Evolution Securities' Keith Morris has tagged the stock with a 'buy' recommendation and 450p price target.

"This increases our risked value of Sea Lion from 666p to 797p. Whilst the 14/10-8 result is disappointing, the increase in the in-place resource in the main structure is positive for the commercial development of the field. De-risking of this development offers substantial share appreciation from current levels," he said.

Peter Bassett, analyst at Westhouse Securities, was equally bullish on the stock.

"The results of the 14/10-8 exploration well once again demonstrate that Rockhopper has an excellent understanding of the geology in this part of the North Falklands basin. The reservoir sequences that they encountered were all high quality with respect to the net-to-gross ratios and porosity, but unfortunately were not hydrocarbon charged.

"Adjusting our NAV for the exploration result and the increased resources on the SLMC structure to 1,297 mmbbl, our target price increases slightly from 643p to 658p per share. We retain our 'buy' recommendation," he added.

Guys, check out PVR (providence resources).....about to embark on a very aggressive drilling program around the irish coast....

Probably hit guinness :-)

It reminds me of XEL before the appraisal.....at one time nobody was interested...and then wooossshhh.....check it out.....loads of prospects...anyone could send it ballistic....

185p +15.25p

is now spiking once it has broken 181.50p that it was holding as resistance since earlier this morning

thanks for the heads-up guys .... have just bought a few, albeit a bit late in the day

Any large spike eventualy gets a retracement, now is looking like is on the way up again with 186.50/p being the bottom of it.

cynic.. has left it late on the day and almost top of the last spike, with a bit of luck he should be on the money later, just now has been very calm to almost halt

i hummed and hahed a bit, but if this stock finally gets the bit between its teeth, then as marky says, it could easily rocket away ..... confess i thought it would weaken further (from 170) as posted first thing

A good post from marlon the monkey on iii

The purpose of an appraisal programme is to move the high case, mid case and low case numbers closer together until you have a P100 contingent resource.

From this mornings figures for SL10 and SL20:

Low case: 844 STOOIP
Mid Case: 1297 STOOIP
High Case: 1428 STOOIP

Based on a conservative 35% recovery

Low case: 295 recoverable
Mid Case: 453 recoverable
High Case: 500 recoverable

I am not interested in spending $30 million chasing the final 47mmbs so I am happy that 10-9 will answer all the questions. I am confident we will see the mid case come in.

In addition to these numbers there are some additional areas to be included:

B15: 30-50mmbs recoverable
Casper: 30-50mmbs recoverable
B45,B60, B75, B90, Kermit (north of fault): 30-50mmbs
SL30 up dip: 20mmbs

Lets say 100mmbs at mid case from areas shown to be oil bearing.

So, overall we are 550mmbs +/-100mmbs IMO and will eliminate most of this variation with 10-9. Narrowing down nicely

Here is the quandary.

300mmbs-400mmbs is a single FPSO module
600mmbs-800mmbs may well be two modules

We are a little bit caught between two stools.as to whether 10-10 is essential for FEED or not. Is it the best use of the last funded well or should RKH go balls out for a full exploration.

A point of noteIt looks as though the feeder channel for Casper/Kermit is leaky. If it wasn't for the fault to the north and the water to the west then all the oil in Sealion would have leaked out.Fault saved us, as did the OWCfunny world! Did the oil leak through the feeder and if so is it trapped elsewhere? JASON?

DES will struggle to get anyone interested in Beverley IMO.

Interesting times.!

From the ft.com - market report small cap

Rockhopper Exploration advanced 12.7 per cent to 191p as news of a dry well was offset by an increased resource estimate. Rockhopper Exploration has refined its methodology for the depth conversion of seismic data over the Sea Lion oilfield offshore the Falkland Islands, explained Canaccord Genuity. As a result, the group has increased its oil in-place estimates for the Sea Lion Main Complex by up to 39 per cent. If we apply a 30 per cent recovery factor to the new numbers, then the field could contain reserves of more than 250m even in Rockhoppers low case, the broker continued.

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