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Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP)     

goal - 15 Mar 2005 17:17

http://www.gulfkeystone.com/ The firms exploration programme in Algeria is going well and "the shares look good value", say the Investors Chronicle. Your comments please. goal.

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HARRYCAT - 01 Feb 2016 17:26 - 5384 of 5505

Yes, I saw that but no idea why at mo.

dreamcatcher - 01 Feb 2016 18:01 - 5385 of 5505

Proactive Investor -

Gulf Keystone (LON:GKP) and Genel Energy (LON:GENL) may soon start to get repaid hundreds of millions of dollars owed for oil produced in the Kurdish region of Iraq.

New payment terms announced by Kurdish Regional Government included an element for paying off some of the arrears that have been built.

Rather than flat monthly payments that started in September, in 2016 the KRG said it will move to payments that reflect the revenue derived from each producing field on a netback basis with Brent as a benchmark.

The KRG added it would also make a further payment, equivalent to 5% of the respective monthly netback revenue derived from each field, to towards the recovery of outstanding entitlements.

HARRYCAT - 02 Feb 2016 09:21 - 5386 of 5505

Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=GKP&Si

Possibly looking interesting again as a trade.

mitzy - 17 Mar 2016 08:30 - 5387 of 5505

Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=GKP&Si

fell to 10p early am.

Ruthbaby - 17 Mar 2016 16:00 - 5388 of 5505

Trading under that now this past hour or so!!

HARRYCAT - 17 Mar 2016 16:23 - 5389 of 5505

2015 Results Announcement
Gulf Keystone Petroleum, a leading independent operator and producer in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, today announces its results for the year ended 31 December 2015.
Highlights to 31 December 2015 and post reporting period

Operational
· Gulf Keystone's operations in the Kurdistan Region remained safe and secure throughout 2015. The Company achieved a milestone of one million man hours without a lost time injury in early March 2016

· 2015 gross production of 11.1 million barrels of oil, an increase of 71% on 2014, an average of 30,500 barrels of oil per day ("bopd"), with no formation water

· The maximum sustained production achieved at Shaikan was 39,773 bopd in September 2015. Intermittent restrictions around offtake and export infrastructure availability resulted in some periods of reduced production throughout the year

· Access to the Kirkuk-Ceyhan export pipeline achieved in July 2015 securing improved netbacks, reduced transportation costs and significantly lower HSSE exposure

· Shaikan production for the period from 1 January to 16 February 2016 averaged 37,080 bopd before exports through the Kirkuk-Ceyhan export pipeline were temporarily suspended until 11 March 2016, when the Company's crude oil export operations resumed and continue at c. 37,000-39,000 bopd today

· The Competent Person's Report ("CPR") update in October 2015 increased gross 2P Proven and Probable Reserves at the Shaikan field by 114% to 639 million barrels and the management's view remains aligned with the October 2015 CPR

· Shaikan Field Development Plan ("FDP") has been updated and submitted in draft form to the Kurdistan Regional Government's Ministry of Natural Resources ("KRG" and "MNR") for review in late 2015

· In parallel, investment plans have been developed which bridge to and are complementary to the FDP and have the potential to maintain the current nameplate capacity of 40,000 bopd with the option to increase production up to 55,000 bopd. These interim investments will require review by MOL Hungarian Oil and Gas plc., our partner in the Shaikan Block, and approval by the MNR

Payments
· The Company generated gross cash receipts of $92.8 million ($74.2 million net to GKP) in 2015. This is made up of $26 million gross prepayment for export deliveries by truck to the Turkish coast received in February 2015, $21.7 million gross received under the direct contract with a domestic offtaker for similar export sales and $45 million gross received from the KRG from September to December 2015 for oil exported through the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline

· In January and March 2016, the Company received two further payments from the KRG of $15 million gross each

· On 1 February 2016, the KRG issued a press release committing to a regular payment cycle to international oil companies for oil exports based upon monthly contractual entitlements in line with the terms of the relevant Production Sharing Contract (PSC)

http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=5241737

cynic - 18 Mar 2016 07:22 - 5390 of 5505

dead in the water ..... from today's FT

Gulf Keystone raises fears for its future
Oil group in battle to meet debt payments amid low price of crude and instability in Iraqi Kurdistan

mitzy - 18 Mar 2016 09:04 - 5391 of 5505

Its become a worthless stock stay clear.

HARRYCAT - 21 Mar 2016 12:25 - 5392 of 5505

Canaccord comment:
"Main issues
Debt. Over the next c.20 months, in the absence of debt restructuring, GKP is required to repay principal of $575m and coupons of $89.4m to its bondholders ($325m convertible bonds, coupon 6.25%, due October '17; $250m senior notes, coupon 13%, due April '17). Against this the company has current cash of $51m (mid March) and anticipated incoming cashflow for oil produced and repayments of c.$15m/month.

Shaikan field. With gross 2P reserves of 639 mmbbls Shaikan is a large field, and the initial performance has been good. GKP (WI 58%, op.) has been hampered by its restricted financial resources, which have allowed only c.40 kbopd capacity to be developed, well short of the full field potential. The asset scale and quality are positive for GKP, but that also makes it attractive to the lenders, and we think that has been enhanced with the resolution of holdings and adjustments to the licence terms.

In the near term a lack of investment looks likely to lead to potentially significant production declines. Currently, the committed budget is only $6m, but GKP has put forward plans to maintain 40 kbopd production (capex $71m) or to increase it to 55 kbopd (capex $88m). Unfortunately it is hard to see how the company can finance this given the debt obligations, G&A outgoings, and limited anticipated incoming cashflow.
Valuation and rating
Gulf Keystone is in a very difficult position with limited time to find a solution to the overhanging debt issues. In our view the risks associated with the company now merit an assumption of NPV20 (previously 15%) valuation. Based on the various licence term amendments and inclusion of a number of financial adjustments, our NPV20 central value declines to 5p/share (from 15p). Yet even that assumes asset value which is currently beyond the company's financial capacity to realise. On that basis we set our TP at 4p/share (from 15p) and reduce our rating to SELL from Hold.

Our TP approaches the remaining potential equity value in our view c.2p/share or 5% of projected EV, that may remain if the debt obligations cannot be met."

required field - 21 Mar 2016 19:54 - 5393 of 5505

The rising crude might save them......close to $40 a barrel now...used to be $30....they might scrape through these difficult times...in which case the sp would rebound strongly.....

Ruthbaby - 22 Mar 2016 07:29 - 5394 of 5505

GENL just been paid for last month. Half the month the export pipe line was shut down...

Balerboy - 22 Mar 2016 08:08 - 5395 of 5505

Desperate times RF.

Ruthbaby - 22 Mar 2016 12:39 - 5396 of 5505

Another payment received by GKP.....although down on the usual payment....the region had reduced oil exported because of pipe closure......
Still a payment is a payment.....a finance deal may be been worked upon with the MNR.....why else would you keep making the payments?

mitzy - 24 Mar 2016 08:55 - 5397 of 5505

6p today who would believe it.

cynic - 24 Mar 2016 09:00 - 5398 of 5505

<1p in a few weeks definitely on the cards

quite tempting to short even at this low level

mitzy - 24 Mar 2016 09:04 - 5399 of 5505

I agree its probably worth around 1p or 2p.

another new low today.

cynic - 14 Apr 2016 10:18 - 5400 of 5505

dead duck slowly spiraling out of control .......

Intention to utilise grace periods for upcoming 18 April coupon payments in respect of its convertible bonds and guaranteed notes, which expire on 2 May and 3 May

Without additional capital expenditure Shaikan Wells may begin to exhibit natural declines later in 2016

Potential interim investment scenarios aim to maintain shaikan production at 40,000 barrels of oil per day ("bopd") with an option to increase production to 55,000 bopd

mitzy - 14 Apr 2016 13:11 - 5401 of 5505

Stay clear is my advice.

HARRYCAT - 14 Apr 2016 13:36 - 5402 of 5505

A bit late for that mitzy! I heard recently that over 80% of shareholders in GKP are private investors, so all of those holders are going to probably lose the lot!

mitzy - 14 Apr 2016 13:45 - 5403 of 5505

Its a shame Harry they will lose everything on this one.
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