Some good news at last from this weeks Shares mag. Tim Freeborn revisits the company and altho no firm details are given about new deals he says they will be announced this quarter. I would think that this could be at the same time as the interim results are announced. I for one will be holding on cos they will fly sooner rather than later! ( 8.30% up today!)

Tradx, jonny wilkinson

Of course, you are both right. Its also a question mark against the Board that, not only have they retained the man but, they have appointed him to the Board. You can imagine him, with a persuasive tongue and, perhaps, a deal of charm, and, even, an entrepreneurial sharpness. I agree also that EPO need a safe pair of hands, tactical awareness and technology savvy.

My argument, though, is still that the present price is only justified if there is a real risk of EPO going to the wall. The argument favouring that outcome presumably is that, in a sense, they have played their joker with the last round of fund-raising so what would they use for their next trick? On the other hand, my view is their technology is worth far more than the current cap. - their must be players in the market who would pay to acquire it. I accept it is a high risk play (not VC but the same effect) but, like TF, I rate the upside gain worth the downside risk.

Eric

Eric,

if you do the financial numbers based on their interims, and even on the small insight granted by the trading update, it is at least clear to me that unless they pull off the deals they allude to, then they will once again have their backs seriously against the wall.

I cannot believe that after nigh on 3 years, that any financier would give this management another chance and deliver up cash to them, but then again, who knows?!

They must therefore be classed as being 'at risk' until or such time as solid financial info is in the public domain - I dread to think how much the legal costs are that they will be clocking up...

As for the value of the technology, we should all bear in mind that it is 'nothing more' than a large transactional database with standard api into other payment processing systems. Whilst a lot of money has been spent on it, this in itself is of no intrinsic value, it is only worth what people are prepared to pay for it, and unless it can demonstrate the ability to generate significant customers willing to pay for it's use, then its value will unfortunately be small. At the moment, I see no avalanche of customers racing to their door - if there were, believe me they would be telling us about it.

I hope the positive view prevails and they prove all the bears wrong, but I just cannot see it at the moment.

DYOR, all imho and all that BS

regards

T..

Tradx - 24 Sep'04 - 11:54 - 543 of 543

Agreed

agreed.............I don't understand why customers are not going to Earthport.........therefore one can only deduct there is an internal issue selling the product successfully.........surely the market is out there.....

Tradx, johnny wilkinson, astonvilla

I'm not sure who is still in EPO! rf is, boothbym is of recent contributors, I am. Anyone else out there? I suspect, in fact, that there are a number of people who have bought around 3p and are holding for recovery; the news pattern was established when the price had dropped to 2.4p. The trading review confirmed what was previously evident about trading. There were a couple of significant parts of the statement: that the company had raised essential working capital (together with structural steps to limit the overheads); that the company had embarked on significant revisions to their IT systems. The price continues to ease and may well continue to do so until such time as there is positive news that the IT revisions have been accepted by customers and prospects and/or there is positive new client info. or financial projections. My point is, that if one does not have any confidence that that will happen, then one should get out of EPO now, even with a 65% loss. If one believes that there is a reasonable probability that the Board will achieve their current business plan, one should be increasing the stake. I can't see that a middle way is credible.

I am agreeing with the credibility of Tradx's view. The company , from what we know, must be 'at risk'. But risk has an upside and a downside so this doesn't stop me taking a bet. I see your point about the transactional database but wouldn't use the term 'nothing more than'. It doesn't mean that such creatures are not expensive to develop and may, perhaps should, have significant value. astonvilla's query re the lack of new customers is answered by the IT point that decent revenue flows from existing customers and the sale of new customers is probably dependent on the successful launch of the updated systems.

I also think it worthwhile that we should keep this dialogue going. If you are out of EPO you are contributing, I suggest, because you see a potential killing being made from them, but that depends on some positive developments and does not mean an investment now. The problem is that the price will be marked up something cruel when, and if, that happens!

Eric

thanks for your comments Eric..........I for one appreciate them.....I am in EPO holding 400k shares at an average of 3.25p. I will not operate a stop loss on this share as I knew the risks when investing.....if it goes belly up then I will take it on the chin.......I was not hoping for a return on my investment yet i saw it as 2/3 years away but I was hoping for a firmer share price and good news. My personal view is that the Hong Kong venture is exciting and developing new markets........this is the only way long term this company can flourish...........but the facts are this is for the future.......It is important to keep dialogue going if just to realise you are not the only one in the ship :-))) I need to check the website but when is the AGM?.......next opportunity to see the board. Confidence has been dented but the upside is still potentially good.......market conditions are also not helping but lets hope '2005 will be Earthport's year' :-))))........have I heard those words before?

astonvilla

Don't think any forward dates announced but final results last year were on 26th November and AGM just before Xmas. Since year ends 30th June, presumably results could be earlier; however it will be the trading statement for first quarter and any forecasts which will be more relevant; will the three October deliveries have been made? are they holding their schedule for the IT projects?

I reduced my average cost to just over 2p with a purchase at 1.08p, accepting it could be good money after bad but reckoning the upside potential still had my vote. I hope that longer term users of this bb have not lost interest because there were comments from several closer to the company and any straw in the wind could prove beneficial. tf may have burnt his boats with rc, which would be understandable but unfortunate, because rc really does owe him (and therefore us) something.

Eric

i am still hlding 3.2m shares(i wish i did not. i dont mind losing on any stock but RC has misled a lot of people including TF and myself regarding the US deal where he lied to me. Lets hope the hong kong deal is on schedule for the 1st october at the very least!

ssanebs

That's quite a holding although all these things are relative I suppose. Absolutely right, if you continue to hold EPO you can't mind too much losing. Puzzled by your reference to the Hong Kong deal in relation to 1st October - the reference in the announcement was to 2005 as the first full trading year and there was no explicit reference in the recent Trading Review.

Eric

ssanebs - 27 Sep'04 - 21:26 - 549 of 550

I agree with your comments, we all accept price of stocks can go down as well as up, however what is not acceptable is CEO misleading shareholders, i accept this problem is not confined to EPO alone, nevertheless its unacceptable, much more so when one considers the history of this stock, previous management failed despite having us believe they were 'going to land on the moon'.

I also accept there are short term traders who have bought stock in or around 1-1.5p, downside for them is minimal as opposed to many who have invested at much higher levels, for these people including myself its most unlikely consider selling at these levels, breached pain barrier !!

Finally i still don't believe RC has the skills to take this company forward, his track record in my opinion makes him a very unsuitable candidate, i also believe if TF Shares magazine reported his conversations with RC accuarately then RC's postion is untenable.On that point i think TF made a gross error of judgement buying shares in the first place considering history of news coming from EPO

Don't be surprised if the next RNS from EPO confirms CEO has been replaced, i stress i'm not an insider, it's not a question if but when, i suggest.

JW,

I can respect your comments and agree with them. There have been some misleading comments and TF as the public voice was the one that reported some of them...not that I blame him.....although the post that was put here by the editor of shares magazine was disrespectful to the smaller shareholders. I am expecting that the key dates towards the end of this year will shed some light on the way forward for EPO and possible timescales. Lets hope we get some realistic answers rather than '2004 will be Earthports year'.

Eric, ssanebs

the relevent part is in the interims it was this.....

"Issue of cards commenced in Q4 2003 and the payments service is expected to go live on July 1 2004 and to be fully operational by December 2004."

So, in theory, it should be up and running now, and generating revenue already, however, I strongly doubt this, given the spending & other issues raised about the platform in the TU...(also given their history of misses, I cannot see why they would manage to get this right..!).

we will see.

I also suspect the agm will not be until late december, as I'm told it was last year..

regards

T..

astonvilla - 28 Sep'04 - 08:42 - 552 of 553

Perhaps one should ask RC does he stand by his original comments that '2004 is going to be EPO's year '.

I hope he would provide an honest answer to his beloved & demoralised shareholders.

I don't know his current salary, bonus's, perks, expenses account etc but i imagine he will need to start producing real results very soon otherwise he will be shown red card !!!

Eric

the july 1st 2004 date given was apparently not the date. RC sais he never gave that date as the going live date and said to TF the date was october 1st. TF said he remembers clearly that he did said July. That is why i said lets see if they announce that it has gone live. You are all definately right that he should be removed. Maybe i should send the recording of his conversation with me to his board and thay can remove him for misleading me!

Another fun day in the topsy-turvy life of an EPO holder...
i feel a novel coming on..............

astonvilla
Great idea - get David O'Leary to manage RC; don't think he'd last long.

ssanebs
Seems as if RC has forgotten that the July 1st date was in the interims, as pointed out by Tradx. They do also give 1st December as fully operational date. If there is any good news at all, one might expect RC to rush it out; perhaps Hong Kong live to whatever degree; perhaps the systems due to go live in October. We need news; he needs news; all God's children need news!
Interesting that spread widened to 35% today - even the mm's need news (not God's children!).

Eric

There is one thing that worries me more than anything else with this share.
If i were on the inside and even half confident on the future i would be
picking these up for fun at these prices if only to help support the price.

EWRobson - 28 Sep'04 - 22:05 - 557 of 558

Well David O'Leary has met his match with Deadly Doug, can one imagine how long RC would remain CEO with Doug as Chairman, not long i suggest.

Anyway i hear what you say about need for newsflow, may i respectfully suggest there has been too much newsflow BUT TOO LITTLE SUBSTANCE, O'Leary good with words and spin even at Leeds, but more importantly he knows its results which keeps him on the payroll, this lesson sadly has not been learned at EPO to date.

Regardless of what views we hold about CEO and his track record, a lot of this would be overlooked if he delivered on his promises, RESULTS, thats the benchmark.

dibbles has fair comment - why are those close to the company, individual and institutions, not buying at present price; cap. of only 6M? One argument is that of jonny wilkinson - nothing of substance to base buying decision on. Basically, the jury is out. In two year's time, will EPO be history - dibbles making money out of his novel, or could they be flying high? It will be one or the other, with an in between position just not on the cards: where would the funding come from for that? Since most comments on this column reflect the depressing fact of the share price collapse, let me just repeat a short list of positives: (i) they did manage to fund themselves for the current business plan; (ii) there is a Board of Directors with sensible attributes 'in control'; (iii) man group do have a substantial stake, whatever the reason; (iv) the technological achievements are substantive; (v) there are those, including the Hong Kong project and Wanadoo, who have bought into the technology. I may be whistling in the wind but these are essentially the reasons why I am holding on in the light of some excellent opportunities in the market.

Eric,

again I applaude your ability to see the upside, but is there any proof to support it?

1) We do not know their current cash position, but even taking into account the funds 'raised' as mentioned in the TU, current burn rate would suggest that they are living hand to mouth. We will only really know when the full years numbers are released (and on their t/o that should be an easy, quick job, but I bet they are not released until the end of DEC).

2) Please show the 'sensible attributes!' - they now have only two exec directors, (they keep losing COO's...why?).

3) There is no imperical proof of this, it is still 'just' a large transaction database with the ability to have open 'hooks' into other legacy systems..it is however underpinned as value proposition by the distribution network i.e. the banks, but it is difficult to call it's technology achievements 'substantive', nothing they have done is patentable, copyrightable..it has all been done before.

4) It hasn't helped so far, except terrified the mm's that their holding could be sold at anytime...hence the intra-day volitility in small volumes lately..

5) We have yet to see any evidence of either, and there seems a great deal of mis-info on when they will commence and show revenues..

The TU made some very specific claims, what will you say, if and when these are not achieved, delayed or simply forgotten about?

I hope you are right and I am wrong, but on the balance of evidence thus far, I still say the CEO has achieved nothing of substance and must go, and the business must show that it has a sustainable target market.

If they can do that, then you are right this could easily be valued at 30+ mill

As always time will tell.

DYOR, all imho and all that BS!

T..