http://www.falklands-oil.com/

http://www.rockhopperexploration.co.uk

http://www.argosresources.com/




Rockhopper was established in 2004 with a strategy to invest in and undertake an offshore oil exploration programme in the North Falkland Basin. It was floated on AIM in August 2005. Rockhopper was the first company to make a commercial oil discovery in the Falklands. Today Rockhopper is the largest acreage holder in the North Falkland Basin, with interests in the Greater Mediterranean region.

More and more investors are looking for certainty in these very uncertain times, so many are still waiting for the CPR before even contemplating dipping their toes in the water (or should that be oil).
If you look around there are very little investments that can make you any sort of money, even allowing for so called defensive stocks.
I feel that when push comes to shove, investor will have to start taking more risks, so they will have to look at companies such as Rockhopper, who have de-risked so much that it is starting to look more and more like a 'very solid' investment in deed.

Within a few years, will Rockhopper be looked at as a defensive stock?
The way its heading, probably!

It is heading to be as certain, as any stock investment!

FT oil sector watcher comment:
"A very good well result from RKH with 14/10-8 encountering an oil column in the Sea Lion Main Complex as well as a new oil and gas discovery on the separate Casper prospect. The well was located 6 km south west of the discovery well, with the SLMC encountering 36 metres of net oil pay whilst Casper found 10 metres of net oil and 8 metres of net gas pay. Pre-drill the group was saying that Casper had estimated oil in place of 135-194 million barrels, or around 40-60m barrels recoverable at 30%.
Crucially, the group believes that the result of this well should move its estimates for its minimum case oil reserves on Sea Lion up towards its mid case estimate, ie from around 250 million barrels to 390 million barrels. The well will now sidetrack and take coring samples from both SLMC and Casper, which should take a further 7 days. Thereafter the rig will move a further 6 km south west to drill the final appraisal well on Sea Lion, on the southern extremity of the currently mapped SLMC - by definition this is therefore a fairly high risk well. Our fully-funded NAV for RKH is 536p/share, ie more than double the current price.

greekman,

aye its depressing enough having to pay 24 a month & not to have the live FTSE price above the Stockwatch prices, and having to scrat around other pages to find it, but to have to go to a rival to check the latest news is beyond the pale

http://oilbarrel.com/news/rockhopper-exploration-gains-on-news-of-casper-discovery-and-potential-upgrade-to-sea-lion

November 10, 2011

Rockhopper Exploration Gains On News Of Casper Discovery And Potential Upgrade To Sea Lion Shares in Rockhopper Exploration gained 10 per cent in morning trading to stand at 23.25 pence yesterday after the AIM-quoted explorer announced its second discovery in the North Falkland Basin. Although the first discovery, Sea Lion with a low case oil-in-place estimate of 844 million barrels, is a candidate for a stand-alone development, investors will be reassured that these remote waters in the South Atlantic have the capacity to yield further finds, thereby enhancing the economics of any development and making it more material to potential industry partners

The second discovery was made by the 14/10-9 exploration well, which penetrated multiple targets: Casper (an oil and gas discovery), the Sea Lion (a successful appraisal well) and Kermit (water wet). The Caspar prospect yielded 18 metres of total net hydrocarbon pay (9.6 metres of oil, 8.4 metres of gas) in a good quality reservoir with average porosity and permeability. Rockhopper believes the gas cap would enhance oil productivity from Casper; this could also be a good location for a potential gas disposal well in any Sea Lion development.

This is good news for the AIM-quoted company as the previous well, 14/10-8, was also drilled to target the Casper, Sea Lion and Kermit prospects but found all three to be water wet. Rockhopper reckons that well, drilled last month, penetrated a relatively restricted area of the Sea Lion Main Complex which appears to be separated from the rest of the field by a fault.

The 14/10-9 location, however, delivered good news from Casper and Sea Lion although Kermit was again water wet. The Sea Lion appraisal was very positive with chief executive Sam Moody believing it will significantly increase the minimum case area for the field, moving it up towards the previously mapped mid-case scenario. Management estimates previously put the low case at 844 million barrels of oil in place, with a medium case of 1.3 billion barrels and a high case of 1.4 billion barrels.

Rockhopper, which holds the acreage on a 100 per cent basis, has already started mulling development options. It has worked up a development plan on the basis of a recoverable resource of 350 million barrels using a leased FPSO. This wont be cheap development costs to first oil are put at US$2 billion with the company targeting first oil in early 2016, ramping up to output of 120,000 bpd by 2018. The company plans to get to work on Front-End Engineering Design next year, ready for submission to the Falkland Islands Government in Q1 2013.

The 14/10-9 well will now be sidetracked to take cores in both the Casper and Sea Lion formations, after which it will be P&A. The rig will then move some 6.3 km to the southwest to drill in the PL004b licence, which following a recent farm-in agreement is operated by Rockhopper with a 60 per cent interest with fellow AIM company Desire Petroleum holding a 40 per cent interest. This well will target the most southerly extent of the Sea Lion main complex giving ailing Desire Petroleum a free ride into this portion of the only commercial discovery in Falklands waters as well as the Beverley prospect. Another discovery would certainly add real muscle to a development in these waters as well as generating some much needed good news for Desires shareholders who have, to date, suffered a run of dry holes.

Fair bit of profit taking, will it move up later with the market recovery?

http://www.fox-davies.com/media/445122/rkhflashnote10nov2011.pdf

Should get a little more good news tom.

Disappointing to see the none appearance of a RNS this AM, but anyone else feel that a bit of delay is a good sign.
Someone earlier this week posted the opinion that if the sidetrack and coring was not finding or going as far as expected, an earlier RNS would be released, so it surely follows that an extended period over the estimated 7 days could mean that they are drilling further than expected.
As far as I know there have been no drilling delays.
As RKH usually over state time scales, what do those others think re my above comments, especially those with far better understanding of drilling processes than I?
Opinions please!

Greek
I too have limited knowledge of the further testing but, like you (and for the same reasons), think no news is good news. Time will tell!

From Marlon the monkey from iii.....he knows his stuff

Ok let's look at a few numbers:

From the October Update

SLMF on Rockhopper's 100% owned acreage

Low 844mmbs STOOIP
Medium 1297mmbs STOOIP
High 1428mmbs STOOIP

Casper on Rockhopper's 100% owned acreage

High 90mmbs STOOIP

From the AGM Report

B15 on Rockhopper's 100% owned acreage

Medium 130mmbs STOOIP

From the DES/Synergy CPR

SLMF in Area 1

Low 69mmbs STOOIP
Medium 169mmbs STOOIP
High 309mmbs STOOIP

Casper west in Area 1

Low 62mmbs STOOIP
Medium 208mmbs STOOIP
High 435mmbs STOOIP

Shona West in Area 1

Low 62mmbs STOOIP
Medium 208mmbs STOOIP
High 435mmbs STOOIP

Looking at the 10-9 result and taking a pragmatic view, I have come up with some directional numbers:

SLMF on Rockhopper's 100% owned acreage

Low after 10-8 844mmbs STOOIP @ 40% 340mmbs recoverable
Additional proven by 10-9 300mmbs STOOIP @ 35% 105mmbs recoverable
B15 after 10-6 130mmbs STOOIP @ 35% 45.5mmbs recoverable

SLMF on Rockhopper's Area 1 (my interpretation using the 10-9 result)

Additional to be proven by 10-10 300mmbs STOOIP @ 30% 90mmbs recoverable

Casper

Additional proven by 10-9 50mmbs STOOIP @ 35% 17.5 mmbs recovera
Additional to be proven by 10-10 (my interpretation using new OGC/OWC)
208mmbs STOOIP @ 30% 60 mmbs recoverable

Shona Corridor (my interpretation using new OGC/OWC)

Additional to be proven by 10-10 208mmbs STOOIP @ 30% 60 mmbs recoverable

In summary

I believe we already have 505mmbs recoverable, across Sealion B15 and Casper, maybe more like 520mmbs if we include B30-B90. The next well could (>70% chance) add up to 210mmbs additional recoverable; 126mmbs to RKH, 84mmbs to DES.

These numbers do not include Beverley, Catriona or jayne...at 30% COS

THIS IS HUGE

For Halifax as he likes his numbers from iii again ....please chew over the bones Hal as plenty of meat on them.

In summary
I believe we already have 505mmbs recoverable, across Sealion B15 and Casper, maybe more like 520mmbs if we include B30-B90. The next well could (>70% chance) add up to 210mmbs additional recoverable; 126mmbs to RKH, 84mmbs to DES.
These numbers do not include Beverley, Catriona or jayne...at 30% COS
THIS IS HUGE
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

So...

A conservative low case of 520 million barrels, recoverable, 100% owned by Rockhopper, already in the bag - and this share is changing hands at the same level as it was back in March, when the bod had just laid claim to 155 million bbls.

If successful, the next two wells (if they decide to drill Area 2), could add dirty great volumes to the 520 million barrel low case.

If the next two wells fail, however, the 520 million barrel, low case, remains intact. Failure of the next two wells will not detract from this number.

On todays market, Brent crude is changing hands for $111 per barrel.

At todays prices, 520mm bbls of Sea Lion crude is worth around 58 billion dollars.

Current market cap values Sea Lions 520 million barrels of oil, in the ground, at $2.30 per barrel.

Producing and selling Sea Lion oil, at 120,000 bbls/day, would see a revenue stream of around $13 million per day, or approximately $4.8 billion annually.

Alternatively, a hypothetical take-over of the company, at $10 per barrel, would see us being bought out at over 11 per share.

Anyone else think there could be room for growth here?

ef. :-)

You'll need one of these Marky

Blimey, could they get anymore on that ship??? lol

Is Pro still not interested , there's no pleasing some people.

Well, according to Pro he was going to make a million pounds out of RKH, but once the going got tough, the tough headed for the door with a loss.

ptholden can i have one for Christmas,Balerboy where you been hiding thought i must of locked you up down my mine......amazing who i have down there.

I'm still here marky never fear, just nothing much to josh about at the mo. Plus work keeping busier than usual at the mo. Keep the mine going for me. :))

Well if you need some cheap coal or clogs you know where to ask.

Used to buy my clogs at the Nack, Seaham and have them nicely polished for 'Grab a Granny' night at the Rex in Whitley Bay - eeeeh that were fun!

Avsec last time i was at the Rex it was a disco in the big hall many moons ago,didnt pull even with my clogs highly polished......got not taste...that was my home town.