I suspect trading tomorrow will probably answer this conundrum, but I know there are some far wiser owls than me that contribute to this bb & I would be interested in their opinions.

My question is this: the chart below looks to me like a pullback of the uptrend (ie when it went north through 14.00) however I am unsure as it has now broken down through 14.00 whether this is trending up or down :-(

So what do you think - up or down, or should I just flip a coin :-)) ?

lol......re- junk, could well be right.,.

Note from Numis:
"There were no major surprises in the Q1 numbers. Whilst we would expect a relief rally reflecting the lack of a negative surprise, to buy for the longer term requires you to believe AHL will perform well over the next 1-2 years. To perform, AHL needs markets to trend for a sustained period of time (6-9 months), rather than "risk-on risk-off" flipping. If your view is that RoRo persists for 1-2 years, then you should sell Man down to 50-75p/share (39p tangible equity + modest value ex-AHL). If you think markets will find some direction (up or down) then you should buy. AHL contributes 70-80% of group earnings and still has an excellent long term performance record (15% p.a. net of fees since 1996 and 6% p.a. over 5 years) which has allowed it to charge a premium and see good inflows until recently. Its 1Y (-6%) and 3Y (-1% p.a.) numbers however are now poor. Unless the performance recovers in the next 2 years, then it is going to have a poor 1/3/5Y record, which in our view would be unsaleable, especially at fee rates >3% (+ perf.). In this scenario, Man is probably worth only a little more than its tangible equity of c.39p/share (8p net cash inc. perpetuals + 41p investments - 16p working cap + 6p PPE).
Whilst the guaranteed FY12 22c divi (13% yield) appears to offer exceptional value, future divis will be highly dependent on earnings (divi = 100% mgmt fees + up to 100% of perf. fees + up to 100% of c.30c surplus cap). If AHL is unable to recover performance, earnings and dividends could therefore fall substantially. A 13% yield for a few years only, suddenly becomes distinctly unattractive. Conversely, if performance recovers, it sees some inflows and maybe some performance fees, it is possible divis >FY12 could be >22c, making the yield distinctly attractive."

Note from Merrill Lynch:
"Man’s Q1 12 IMS is overall light on surprises. Total AUM, at $59bn, is in line with our estimate of $58.5bn. Total alternative AUM, of $46.5bn, is exactly in line with our estimate of $46.5bn. Within alternatives, the higher margin elements were very fractionally ahead of our expectations, fund of funds a fraction behind. Overall outflows were a bit higher than we had expected, at $1bn against $0.6bne, but performance was usefully stronger, at $2.3bn including FX, against our estimate of $1.3bn. By segment, long only saw better than expected flows, apparently driven by its iconic Japan product, whilst open end AHL saw $0.7bn outflows, mainly “driven by continuing redemptions from Nomura Global Trend”. Rebalancing within the guaranteed segment was roughly in line with our expectations. The company has also announced another $1bn of rebalancing so far this quarter, whereas we had expected $0.6bn. Against that, AHL has been positive since the last date at which rebalancing was struck, potentially providing some offset. At the end of March, three quarters of GLG funds which can charge performance fees were at or within 5% of performance fee territory. April seems to have been mixed so far, with the more optimistic funds giving back performance, and the pessimists (such as the macro product) making progress. As you would have expected from the published data, AHL was around 14% below performance fee territory at the end of March. The strategy is roughly flat since then. The company’s outlook statement contains few surprises.
Management has detected that “the benefits of innovation and investment at AHL are starting to show through”, and says that there is useful interest in new products as well as a range of current strategies. In terms of current trading, though, the impression the statement gives is that April is similar to February and March, with gross redemptions relatively modest but sales difficult. Given the macro backdrop, this does not seem a major surprise, in our opinion. We will listen to the company’s conference call at 8am, but at present do not see any data to make us think that numbers will change much. As we argued in our recent note on Man, in the near term, numbers are likely to be driven by AHL. Over the longer term, we expect the strategic positives we see in the company will predominate. On anything like a normal year of performance fees, Man looks extremely cheap. We therefore maintain our Buy recommendation."

Stopped out here earlier - only way to describe my trade here :-

Left my investment in. There's still the chance of a buyout, which would have to be at a decent premium to today's price.

I would not bet on it.

Lost the bet mitzy, Im out.

MAN is not the share it used to be.

Do you think the change in the World's perception of Risk, Profit and Work-methods means
the Old [EMG] business model is fundamentally flawed?

Surely this has been addressed with the purchase of the US company - and the company news suggests this is becomming a larger % as a result of new business - although their original problem was to put so many eggs in one Basket - a bit like Northern Rock - could only see the beauty of the ocean they had left, yet the "Lookout" was asleep (to mix metaphors)....
I'm curious to know who would want to buy this? I mean, if the Dirs can't resolve their past-deals, who could improve on that?

No sign of an improvement.

wow 88p.

The whole market has crumbled.

Non farm payrolls were the death knell this pm.

It's not good but the whole market hasn't crumbled, housebuilders bearing the brunt of the decline and overall the FTSE is down around 2%. I believe it will get even cheaper giving good opportunities to pick up quality stocks at a reasonable price. Good luck all.
2517

mitzy two fat ladies hope you are not one of them!

I think 60p is the true value.

bugger!!

baler looking at the red here you havent bought emg also have you?! :-(((

good for shorting though :-))))))

terrible decline here only real chance is a US co buy out but no one wants emg for some strange reason lol!

been in for far too long and stuck here now gib.,. :(