http://www.gulfkeystone.com/ The firms exploration programme in Algeria is going well and "the shares look good value", say the Investors Chronicle. Your comments please. goal.

wow what a read... but worth it, thanks BB

incredible presentation...thanks..

4billion--5 billion- I'll settle for a fraction of that! It's almost telephone numbers isn't it? very knowledgeable post I'm ready to wait for the proof of the pudding--or to see if it's b+++cks as cynic puts it!

except i wouldn't bother with asterisks!

If it's as much as 4 to 5 billion (big doubts about that) you are looking at the sp flying over 200p....if it's around 1.5 to 2.5 : more to my way of thinking : then something around 120p.....even 500 million barrels would be impressive which would put the sp in the 90's or so...and there are plenty more wells to be drilled...

It is also interesting to note that the Total ceo thinks that the price of crude is going to rise up to $100 per barrel as the recovery gets underway and he says that there could be oil shortages because of the lack of investment over the last 18 months or so.

not so much oil shortages, but for the majors, a lack of additional reserves as it is they who have failed to invest in exploration .... this is what makes good quality minnows and second-liners with proven reserves such tempting morsels

good point.

Takeover target then...another reason for holding this then !.

quite so, and ditto GPX, TLW and a number of others, though it's still a lottery as to which will prove to be the "sultan's favourite"

I hold all three with the latter in an isa....came back into Tullow a couple of days ago on broker upgrades...

rf you obviously missed the Citibank downgrade and the chairman selling 250k shares!

Yep I did indeed..just checked though that target has been raised to 1285p....sp rose quickly before pulling back...tremendous blue chip stock...my target is something above 13....

halifax doesn't like TLW ..... in that respect he's a bit like me with falklands oilies, the difference being that TLW has actually found an awful lot of black stuff and are already building a fleet of spaceships to move it out

It's a super hold is Tullow...been in and out since 40p or so...wish I held on without jumping out many a time...

credit to BBBS (Bah Bah Black Sheep) at another place

At least two very insightful comments from Todd, (well copied duffs55):

http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail/?display=discussion&code=cotn%3AGKP.L&threshold=5&it=le&action=detail&id=5346023

1. He said. "Everything is in the RNS. Interesting strucutures means we have identified further hrdrocarbons, however these have not been verified and we will release further on going news in due course."

2. "We are excited about what we are yet to discover, so watch this space"


1. PRIMARIES
-------------
"Everything is in the RNS". Indeed it is. So just how many primaries do we have then Todd?

- RNS of 6th August: "In addition to these well test results, it should be noted that the primary zones of interest for the Shaikan-1 exploration well are the underlying Alan and Mus formations."

- RNS of 25th August: "As previously announced, the Alan and Mus formations were identified as the primary oil bearing zones of interest for Shaikan-1"

- RNS of 18th Sept: "Beyond the 9-5/8" casing shoe, the Shaikan-1 well will drill into the Triassic rock layers to explore the remaining primary hydrocarbon targets"

If the Kurre Chine is now a "primary", the 1.5 - 3.0 BBL in the Alan and Mus formations is now sounding somewhat "secondary"? Or, if we err on the side of caution, how about an 'equal' "primary"? So, for the benefit of prophets (profits?), let me multiply 2 x 2, to get a total for Shaikan of between 3.0 - 6.0 BBL. That equals 4.5 BBL (P50).


2. THE ROOF IS LEAKING AGAIN
---------------------------
"We are excited about what we are yet to discover, so watch this space".

Oil reservoirs are a bit like my house in rainy season. Except that houses leak from without whereas reservoirs leak from within. With reference to my "Basic Geometry" post:

http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail/?display=discussion&code=cotn%3AGKP.L&threshold=0&it=le&action=detail&id=5336073

In section B2(a) Reservoir, I was trying to say that the initial Sargelu 'surprise' from 1450-1710 has subsequently been revised to a discovery (in the Alan and Mus formations) from 1467-1710m. The initial oil intervals around 1450m were indeed in the Sargelu, but it is now understood that these are only observations of oil breaking through the roof of the seal at the top of the Alan and Mus reservoir (at 1450m).

Similarly, in section B3(c) I am saying that the oil intervals observed within the Butmah seal from 1710-2500m are once again a consequence of the roof leaking above the Kurre Chine.

"What we are yet to discover" is obvious to Todd. Me too - the roof is leaking again.

BBBS

P.S. Do not expect too much from the next RNS. It will probably 'only' be DGA's confirmation of the 1.5 - 3.0 BBL thus far (to 1710m). But that in itself will still be quite positive for the sp because the markets will then have to seriously consider a most likley best estimate (P50) of around 2.3 BBL rather than their current view of erring on the side of extreme caution by giving GKP only 50% of the low estimate (P90) 1.5 BBL. A revision upwards for the OIP to 2500m is also possible, but that increase is unlikely to be large. Just be patient, it is only a matter of 2-3 weeks before the mother of all RNS's - at TD.

This one rising : I can understand with a big amount of oil discovered but Sterling Energy.....on the back of this....that is crazy !.

well guys--you should all be buying --Nighthawk--they are around the recent placing price of 35p!!---some brokers have target sights ranging from 90p to 268p!--in their recent placing at 35p they have raised @22m to commence a 20 well drilling programme at their Jolly Ranger field in USA where independent seismic consultants have estimated potential reserves of @ 1.5billion barrels of oil!!--time to seriously consider having a punt at these levels of 35p if you are not in them already--before the recent placing even the Investors Chronicle recommended them as a buy at 47p!--I have just topped up with some of my handsome profits on GKP which I bought at 22p and sold half at 91p!--follow me I am sure you will make money in these shares if you get in now!--STRONG BUY @35p!

I'm in HAWK at a loss at the moment...but what they have is chicken feed compared to the Iraq stuff....

no shit sherlock!