.

I lied earlier.....(didn't meant to)......sold most of what was left of BOR and bought some more FOGL at the knocked down price.....now just a foothold in BOR and way overweight on FOGL.......fingers crossed....not bought so many since GKP early days.....if BOR strike FOGL go up...if they don't I agree with a FOGL rise with Loligo looking like a fabulous target !....so FOGL should rise as well....

Might get several updates as we drill deeper and deeper with Falklands oil and gas as they are targeting several reservoirs I gather....make it a bit more interesting...

http://www.sharecast.com/cgi-bin/sharecast/story.cgi?story_id=20107756

Broker snap: Merchant Secs initiates Falkland Oil at buy
Fri 18 May 2012

FOGL - Falkland Oil & Gas Ltd.


................ LONDON (SHARECAST) - In a research note issued this morning analysts at Merchant Securities initiate coverage of Falklands Oil and Gas with a buy recommendation and a 400p price target.

For them this company, “holds the best exploration acreage in the Falkland Islands because its prospects are larger than elsewhere, yet we believe the exploration risks are not greater than elsewhere in the region.”

More specifically, they believe that the Loligo prospect is likely to be a condensate prospect, just as the Borders & Southern discovery at Darwin was a condensate discovery. They have modelled the prospect based on their estimate that, if successful, it could produce 2.0bn barrels of condensate, which compares to FOGL’s estimate of 4.7bn barrels of oil equivalent. Loligo is likely to commence drilling around the end of June or early July 2012 with results announced about 8 weeks later.

As well, they anticipate a ‘pre-drill catalyst’ in that they expect that prior to drilling Loligo the company will farm out 25% of its licence areas to a currently undisclosed party pursuant to a farm-in option agreement. FOGL would receive $60m in cash if the option is exercised in accordance with the base case of the agreement...........

sounds like "desperate rampers"

Hang on on a sec.

Proselenes said hitting gas was geologically impossible and now he's saying different

As I said before, "I would laugh my head off if they hit rock at loligo"

Screw this, the odds aren't lookin that good with only "8% for Loligo and 8% for Soctia"
For all Proselenes's ramping, at the end of the day, it's only 8%

GS said "We assume that the company drills the Loligo and Scotia prospects as part of this drilling campaign"

Goldman Sachs are only making an assumption after all

http://www.youtube.com/verify_age?next_url=/watch%3Fv%3DcMIjhfvsxKc

I don't get it, I really don't.. 470 BILLION barrels and only 8% chance of success?? Someone please explain??

Also, what does this c.50% chance of encountering liquids mean. What does the "c" mean??>??????

"it could produce 2.0bn barrels of condensate, which compares to FOGL’s estimate of 4.7bn barrels of oil" This does not compare because

1)firstly 2 is smaller than 4.7
2)condensate is NOT as good as oil

Hmmmmm

RF - How could you sell BOR after reading this. It sounds like Stebbing has a greater chance of success than FOGL wells

"Despite the success of the Darwin East prospect we would still regard" FOGL "prospects as relatively high risk and as such apply conservative chances of success (8% for Loligo and 8% for Soctia; a higher risking than for Borders & Southern’s remaining Stebbing prospect to reflect the 3D seismic that Borders possesses and the de-risking impact of Darwin)."

I'm going to SHOVE this quot back into Proselenes's face

"Loligo and Scotia (FOGL drills) are prime oil window."

That's not what it's looking like now, is it??? Seems after all, it was all talk. We're being ramped. I dnt like it. I want him to come clean

I think its time for me to in the bed. I've earned a nice sleep after a good few hours of research/daydreaming!!

FSM
C. is shorthand for circa. ="about"

I think FSM might be new name of someone I have already squelched - that series of posts is nigh on confirming of it.

If you note the 8% CoS is what Goldman are applying, not a CPR or geologist, just Goldmans who openly say it is "conservative".

Condensate is more valuable than oil for a start, 2 billion barrels of oil would come along with around 15 Tcf of gas, so an LNG plant would be built, the gas turned into LNG after the highly valuable condensate extracted.

Anyway, its only the shallower targets (as I have said many times already) that are more likely gas condensate - its the deeper ones that are more likely oil.

I will copy you a post from TMF :)

FOGL is in a very good position now.

If Stebbing is condensate it will make the total gas/condensate finds sufficient between Darwin and Stebbing for LNG viability on top of condensate. Therefore Loligo can be gas and it just adds to the whole equation.

If Stebbing is oil, again its very good news for FOGL.

If Stebbing is a duster then FOGL carries forward the Darwin discovery assistance to any find of their own, and of course the follow the rig money piles out of BOR (on good or bad news) and piles into FOGL.

So for FOGL is pretty much upside all round, and on top of that they have potential farm in news at any time - which given the present low market cap would actually add value and not detract - given how only a tiny amount of potential is priced in presently.

Then of course comes basically 6 drills (actually 2 drills but targeting 6 targets) but for the sake of having decent size only, lets call it 5 significant targets.

Any on their own could be commercial, and if any combination of them come in then its just pure upside.


Loligo Deep is drill one. Shallower targets are more likely gas/condensate and the deeper ones oil.


T1 target = 1.5 billion P50 potential recoverable barrels.
T1 deep target = 0.64 billion P50 potential recoverable barrels.
Trigg target + Trigg deep target = 0.97 billion P50 potential rec. barrels.
Three Bears target = 1.6 billion P50 potential recoverable barrels.

Second drill

Scotia target = 1 billion P50 potential recoverable barrels.


So you have in effect 5 significant size targets, all potentially commercial on their own, split over 2 FOGL drills. Drill 1 being a 4 in 1. Its no wonder FOGL is holding up (and today I got some more sub 80p and will continue to add at below 80p).

Farm in news, it goes up. Stebbing condensate, it goes up. Stebbing oil, it goes up. Stebbing duster then move on to FOGL, it goes up. And then the drilling of billion barrel recoverable size targets begins.................. with even the deepest target of that one drill, Three Bears, a potential massive find if all the other targets on the way down fail.

It's your last paragraph that's my way of thinking.....Stebbing might come right but it's far from certain...but FOGL then have two wells coming right up with loads of targets to choose from.....still have a foothold in BOR and might in one way or another add to it...but prefer to be mostly in Falklands Oil and Gas for the upcoming spuds.....

i think a great deal of caution is required all round ...... this whole FI exploration region is a massive gamble, and the markets will be very very nasty and unpredictable for the next few months ..... thus, in my opinion, try to ignore 95% of the hype which is based on (un)informed guesswork and decide how much you can afford to LOSE ..... all AIM stocks will continue to get hammered on "bad" days regardless of underlying quality, and in the event of disappointment, the abyss awaits

for myself, i have only a smallish holding in FOGL and reduced my holding in RKH a few days ago

It's risky that's for sure......but the prospects or targets are there....and it is in british waters....sods law...just as this is coming round we have a world crisis on our hands and it seems nobody has any idea how to get Europe out of it....no easy solution can be found for the greek woes so obviously even the "foilkie" stocks (if I can call them that) are affected....not many people had any faith in Rockhopper before it struck light oil.......who knows ..the same can happen here....it's the number of possible strikes that are interesting !...

Can I just say that not enough is said when an investor is doing a grand job. Read all your posts cynic and feel you put out good advice. :-))

Yes....the trouble is that I would like to turn my porfolio into cash but I would take bad losses.....I'm planning on using the losses that I have already clocked up offsetting future gains on a recovery....just going to have to sit through the slump.....it can't last forever....we have to hope that it does not get worse.....another share to keep an eye on is Max Petroleum....there is a very slight chance of them having a massive strike with this deep well of theirs...and they do have increasing production....very interesting that one....risky again....but oilies are the only ones where some money can be made at the moment...

For the risk averse cynic does give good advice. Nobody is ever going to make a packet following him, and nobody will lose a packet either. They might make a little or lose a little but thats all.

But then, if thats all you want then fine.

For me I love risk, I take risk and I try to win big but also mitigate as best possible the downsides.

EG, buy very early - wait - top slice a few to get your pot back but still run the large profits for the gamble. Cynic would take the profit quickly - I run the profits.

Run your winners and cut your losers quickly.

Most people cut their winners too quick and run their losers far too long.