Some good news at last from this weeks Shares mag. Tim Freeborn revisits the company and altho no firm details are given about new deals he says they will be announced this quarter. I would think that this could be at the same time as the interim results are announced. I for one will be holding on cos they will fly sooner rather than later! ( 8.30% up today!)

astonvilla
Great idea - get David O'Leary to manage RC; don't think he'd last long.

ssanebs
Seems as if RC has forgotten that the July 1st date was in the interims, as pointed out by Tradx. They do also give 1st December as fully operational date. If there is any good news at all, one might expect RC to rush it out; perhaps Hong Kong live to whatever degree; perhaps the systems due to go live in October. We need news; he needs news; all God's children need news!
Interesting that spread widened to 35% today - even the mm's need news (not God's children!).

Eric

There is one thing that worries me more than anything else with this share.
If i were on the inside and even half confident on the future i would be
picking these up for fun at these prices if only to help support the price.

EWRobson - 28 Sep'04 - 22:05 - 557 of 558

Well David O'Leary has met his match with Deadly Doug, can one imagine how long RC would remain CEO with Doug as Chairman, not long i suggest.

Anyway i hear what you say about need for newsflow, may i respectfully suggest there has been too much newsflow BUT TOO LITTLE SUBSTANCE, O'Leary good with words and spin even at Leeds, but more importantly he knows its results which keeps him on the payroll, this lesson sadly has not been learned at EPO to date.

Regardless of what views we hold about CEO and his track record, a lot of this would be overlooked if he delivered on his promises, RESULTS, thats the benchmark.

dibbles has fair comment - why are those close to the company, individual and institutions, not buying at present price; cap. of only 6M? One argument is that of jonny wilkinson - nothing of substance to base buying decision on. Basically, the jury is out. In two year's time, will EPO be history - dibbles making money out of his novel, or could they be flying high? It will be one or the other, with an in between position just not on the cards: where would the funding come from for that? Since most comments on this column reflect the depressing fact of the share price collapse, let me just repeat a short list of positives: (i) they did manage to fund themselves for the current business plan; (ii) there is a Board of Directors with sensible attributes 'in control'; (iii) man group do have a substantial stake, whatever the reason; (iv) the technological achievements are substantive; (v) there are those, including the Hong Kong project and Wanadoo, who have bought into the technology. I may be whistling in the wind but these are essentially the reasons why I am holding on in the light of some excellent opportunities in the market.

Eric,

again I applaude your ability to see the upside, but is there any proof to support it?

1) We do not know their current cash position, but even taking into account the funds 'raised' as mentioned in the TU, current burn rate would suggest that they are living hand to mouth. We will only really know when the full years numbers are released (and on their t/o that should be an easy, quick job, but I bet they are not released until the end of DEC).

2) Please show the 'sensible attributes!' - they now have only two exec directors, (they keep losing COO's...why?).

3) There is no imperical proof of this, it is still 'just' a large transaction database with the ability to have open 'hooks' into other legacy systems..it is however underpinned as value proposition by the distribution network i.e. the banks, but it is difficult to call it's technology achievements 'substantive', nothing they have done is patentable, copyrightable..it has all been done before.

4) It hasn't helped so far, except terrified the mm's that their holding could be sold at anytime...hence the intra-day volitility in small volumes lately..

5) We have yet to see any evidence of either, and there seems a great deal of mis-info on when they will commence and show revenues..

The TU made some very specific claims, what will you say, if and when these are not achieved, delayed or simply forgotten about?

I hope you are right and I am wrong, but on the balance of evidence thus far, I still say the CEO has achieved nothing of substance and must go, and the business must show that it has a sustainable target market.

If they can do that, then you are right this could easily be valued at 30+ mill

As always time will tell.

DYOR, all imho and all that BS!

T..

Tradx

Message received and understood. Comments look reasonable. Will return as devil's advocate (wrong way round? - no, RC is the devil) when I have a bit of time this evening.

Eric

Tradx

I am setting out to state the case for EPO, as promised. The question is, presumably, prosper or die?. I will try to make this balanced if I were to conclude that the die option were the more likely, I would join the herd, take what is left of my money and run.

1 Cash probably the most important issue. At 31st Dec. there was negligible cash and net current liabilities of 6.1m. Capital was raised in January to the tune of 3.0m (before expenses) via shares at 2.5p. The loss before tax was 2.8m for the six months.
The trading update on 20th August reported funds invested of 800k against Loan Notes. 120k per month was removed from burn rate, by placing a major development team into a separate company. The company had reached agreement in principle to sell a minority interest in ensurePay Ltd for up to 1.5m; the funds are to be applied to funding earthport and the ensurePay business going forward.
Reading between the lines of this report, the reference to milestones (so far achieved) suggests that the continued support of creditors is dependent on satisfaction of those milestones. I have previously suggested that these relate significantly to the IT development programme as one must assume these functional and performance improvements are critical to generate the transaction revenue from existing customers and to signing up prospects.
Your reference to hand to mouth suggests that creditors could foreclose at any time. My interpretation is that the cash will be available against the business plan so long as the milestones are met. May come to the same thing in the end but not quite a doom-laden scenario.

2. Board. Quite right, just two exec dir.: Cunningham and Hall, fin. Dir. 4 non-execs, two of whom are financial (one investment) one legal, (see earthport.com website) plus chairman. My point here is that our interests are in the hands of this Board and RC reports to this Board. Statements put out, such as trading review, and business plan must have blessing of the Board.

3. Systems. The website gives a run down of the systems and communication facilities. Is this copyrightable? Presumably the Board member, Rakison, is behind the legal claims. The code of any system cannot be poached. There are clearly many man-years of development in the systems; someone else could presumably work to the design concepts but would not be able to short-cut the effort by that much.

4. man group holding. A holding is also quoted on website for Savoy Investment Management. I admit I do not understand the implications of a holding by a Hedge Fund group.

5. client base; in particular Hong Kong and Wanadoo. The recent correspondence over Hong Kong seems to relate primarily to the live date. The major query must relate to take-up as I assume epo revenues will relate to transaction volumes. The trading update referred to an international customer going live in May but, again, there is no indication of transaction volumes and the suspicion remains that build-up might be delayed until IT systems updates are delivered.

I suspect that, overall, these comments are neutral. My conclusion is that the jury is out. It the rug is to be pulled, then it will be by failure to meet deadlines. The only positive read is that the onus is on the development teams which may be, stress may be, a strength of the company. Probability of making it? Difficult I am still an investor because I am about 50/50 and the upside is much greater than the downside. Would I put in new funds; probably not as no one else is. So, I am holding against news, which may be a cop out. Hope this is a down the middle review.

Eric

Eric.

Great post.
I'm holding my position, just hoping all will come good. (I'm down so much, as I got sucked in partialy due to TF, that what I'd get out now, is pittance compared to the possible reward) I think the risks involved with this share are typical of 'penny shares'. If a person can't accept the risks, then stay within the bluechips!

Highride

PS. I am concerned though about some of the apparant false or premature statements issued to the press, namely the Share magazine.

Eric,

Excellent post, balanced and to the point, you are to be congratulated!!

The key issue as Highride points to is can we believe them? The companys future now depends on them executing upon the claims they made in the Trading update; and they will have to let the market know as these 'deals' /events occur, so no news will of course be bad, and any news (one presumes!) will be positive.

If they do not do as they claim this time, then they will be found out, for sure.

Highride,

Most particlary the issue that springs to mind is that of the broker note - remember the broker was going to do it straight after his return from honeymoon?

Well the lastest apparent info is he isn't - they questions now are why? and what say TF now? (at the time he put absolute faith in this happening).

regards

T..

I'm being slightly contrary here:-

I just wonder whether the CEO simply spoke out of turn rather than trying to put out false promises. Perhaps he was just unwise, publicising what were perhaps very premature deals. Still, it was an error of judgement all the same, which again, makes one a little doubtful as to whether he can make this company happen. Lets hope so.

Regarding Tim Freeborn, in his original article (08.04.2004), he did state "Even new broker Bridgewell describes the company as 'highly speculative'. It is watching hopefully from some distance, waiting for some key deals to emerge".
Also, right at the end he stated "Not for widows and Orphans".
I feel TF did try to make clear this company is very speculative. However, I would love to see TF 're-re-visit' Earthport regarding the infamous Broker's note. That was really strange. WHAT IS GOING ON????????

Regards

H.

Tradx, Highride

Thanks for the kind comments - I can at least enjoy those when I bewail the loss of the last EPO penny. They are alas now a penny share, literally. Despite my effort to try to balance our own concensus, I would still rush to take it (i.e. the penny) if the balance of the argument went much more negative - after all, 1p times x00,000 is x,000. At the moment I still have a view, faint though it may be becoming, of a 10p at the end of the tunnel and x0,000! I've left the RC/TF thing behind; my hope is with the Board - they could well be saying the 'devil we know' and remembering that he was the chap who delivered the goods when with Gelande.

Having said that, if Tim reads this, why not bite the bullet and have a chat; perhaps with the analyst if he is back from honeymoon!

Eric

Eric,

Off-topic, but the Mail on Sunday reckons TF's old boss at legendary - Shami (who are also investors in epo) has just been arrested by the customs and excise..due in court 27th October, of course all his friends reckon that he will be vindicated and that he was just in the wrong place at the wrong time...funny old world isn't it?!

It would be good to see a proper review by TF of epo now.

regards

T..

EWRobson - 02 Oct'04 - 23:11 - 567 of 568

they could well be saying the 'devil we know' and remembering that he was the chap who delivered the goods when with Gelande
..............................................................................

Do you really know about life at Gelande, tell everyone on this board about his success's at Gelande, provide evidence to back it up, come on i reckon there are 'certain people' who will pay you for the privilege providing this, maybe you will want to store it in some vault and hope some day to sell it for big bucks.

'RC delivered the goods when with Gelande', now this is getting really interesting, go on tell us more.

I am a longterm holder of EOP. My guess it will come good. Think of the ups and downs of RTD TFC even TEP. With the spread as it is I whink the best place for any holdings of eop is under the mattress. I think with all the negative ramping has stopped and some of the knockers start buying instead of bleating the price will go back up as EWR suggests. \

Mind I am writing this from the middle of France after a good luch and some poor wine.

I must pay more than 75p a bottle in future.

Tradx - 03 Oct'04 - 10:37 - 568 of 569



of course all his friends reckon that he will be vindicated

.........................................................................

The article refers to 'associates' rather than friends' is RC deemed an associate, hopefully not.

I'm sure his wife and children will be very shocked, they were on holiday in Sardinia during summer staying at a very nice hotel, not an exclusive resort like some of the rich & famous use, despite his so called wealth, very down to earth family man, one would tend to think a case of mistaken identity.

I think there is more confusion re Link up with Legendary Investments 3 June 2004, rns states legendary investments granted options over 50m shares and in addition Legendary has already subscribed for 10m shares at 2.5p.
Information filed at Companies House show the shares alloted to Shami rather then Legendary Investments which then begs the question, is the options granted to Shami rather then Legendary, remember these options exercisable up to 31 December 2004, min price 2.75p equates by value to min 1.375m.Certainly at current prices it looks unlikely these options will be exercised, one must conclude 1.375m would be a big loss to EPO.

Re Brokers Note

Any news when Bridgewell expect to have research note ready , due in July according to RC, wonder did RC mean July 2005.

Shami Ahmed accused over customs charade

Philip Inman and Simon Bowers
Saturday October 2, 2004

The Guardian

Shami Ahmed, the rag trade entrepreneur who founded the Joe Bloggs jeans brand, has been charged with conspiracy to impersonate a customs officer.
Mr Ahmed, who is equally well-known in the City of London as an active trader on the stock market, appeared before a magistrates court on Wednesday along with four others, all of whom face the same charge. Along with Mr Ahmed, they are understood to have been arrested outside the Churchill Hotel in Portman Square, London, on Monday. Further details cannot be reported for legal reasons.

Impersonating a customs officer carries a maximum sentence of two years in jail. The case at City of London magistrates court has been transferred to Southwark crown court, where it will be heard on October 27.

The Pakistani-born Mr Ahmed came to the UK aged two and left school at 17, helping run the family's market stall in Burnley. He founded the Joe Bloggs brand 18 years ago and within four years it was reputedly worth 25m.

Expanding to a range of casual clothing, Joe Bloggs used slogans such as "Everyone Snogs In Joe Bloggs" and "Kiss The Bliss With Joe Bloggs". The brand won high-profile endorsement from celebrities such as Take That, Prince Naseem and New Order.

In 1997 Mr Ahmed proved an unlikely saviour for Elizabeth Emanuel, who designed the wedding dress of Diana, Princess of Wales. He rescued her ballgown business from bankruptcy, though the partnership soured and ended in a bitter legal battle over rights to the Emanuel brand.

More recently, Mr Ahmed sold a stake that gave him 22% of the voting rights in the troubled menswear retailer Moss Bros. The sale followed years of speculation that he was considering a second takeover bid for the business, possibly with a view to seeking a merger with Austin Reed. An initial approach was firmly rebuffed by the Moss Bros board two years ago.

Asked about the conspiracy charge last night, Mr Ahmed said he was unable to comment on the case specifically but promised to fight the allegation vigorously. "I am entirely innocent in this matter and time will prove me to be innocent," he said.

jonny wilkinson

My knowledge of Gelande and RC is only what I have read in press notes via MoneyAM. At the moment, we are limited to the last three notes so I can't check the sources, only going from memory. As I understand it: RC was appointed by the EPO board having been a director of Gelande; Gelande were both an investor in EPO and had a trading relationship which I assume was a sales/marketing role; their 'commission' was 50% which was cancelled by RC in his EPO role on grounds of conflict of interest. My assumption has been that RC would have been appointed by the EPO Board because of his known track record. Nothing more complicated. Happy to stand corrected. However, I cannot think of any other logical reason why RC should have been appointed - he has a great ability to put his foot in it and there doesn't seem to be anything on his CV which would even get him a first interview.

Eric

Got to be honest, as one of EPO's last surviving advocates! Reduced holding today by two-thirds at average 1.04p; not that bad I suppose given most had been acquired at 1.08p. Reason is: having concluded that it will take time to recover, i.e. early next year, that is too long for the 'speculative' end of my portfolio. In fact EPO had all the speculative funds. Thought I would have more fun with PCI and PET. Sinking ship into shark-infested waters? Better, shark-driven ship into oil infested waters!

Eric

Eric,

I wish you luck, I suspect you may have made the right choice. Guess we will know one way or the other by years end!

regards

T.