http://www.falklands-oil.com/

http://www.rockhopperexploration.co.uk

http://www.argosresources.com/




Rockhopper was established in 2004 with a strategy to invest in and undertake an offshore oil exploration programme in the North Falkland Basin. It was floated on AIM in August 2005. Rockhopper was the first company to make a commercial oil discovery in the Falklands. Today Rockhopper is the largest acreage holder in the North Falkland Basin, with interests in the Greater Mediterranean region.

Talk of a 750M pound placing at 250p a share.

300M new shares to fund an EPS (Early Production) (280M already in issue).

Take EVO price target of 540p and mark down by 50% gives around 270p for now as the new target price.

So a placing around 250p of that magnitude is about right - price can fluctuate between 225p and 275p for a year or so until things start to move on the early production system.

Price will move out of that range when EPS is nearly there or if they sign a new rig contract and then a new rig moves into location for some more exploration.

certainly a placing (rights issue by any other name) is always quite a strong possibility with any minnow like RKH, but even if there is, it is likely to be gobbled up very quickly as RKH are coming from a position of strength

another possibility of equal merit - though i would not buy with that logic - is that a bigger fish will take the opportunity to take out RKH - e.g. they would be very happy indeed to take the whole placing at 270 given half a chance

cynic for existing shareholders doesn't this add up to significant dilution?

yes, but in the longer term that need not be deleterious - and that always assumes Pros's rumour is true ..... if sp was currently 540 and a placing came in at 250 or whatever, that would be very different

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why would someone buy into a placing ABOVE the ruling sp?

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Pros rumour came from the Times waffling.

It's impossible for RKH to get the Oil out of the ground without some form of dilution so fail to see how any shareholders would be surprised when it comes...whatever form. At the end of the day you have to work out the value of 500mmbbls Oil at Brent prices and work that into the sp at various sized share base...JV is going to take at least 50% presumably?

Probably about 5yrs to do anything.,.

mnamreh, it does happen.

However RKH is not illiquid and at this stage there would be no chance of a placing at higher than the current SP, IMO.

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PS - The thing I love about bulletin boards is :

Post negatively about a stock nobody holds - nobody cares.

Post positively about a stock nobody holds - you are a ramper.

Post negatively about a stock someone holds - you are a deramper

Post positive about a stock someone holds - you are a genius and oracle of knowledge


I love it :)

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BGS update

http://www.bgs.ac.uk/falklands-oil/downloads/newsletters/news.pdf

Drifting downwards as I said it would.

The excitement is all over now, and like XEL this should drift downwards and funding or farmout dilution becomes the key mover going forward.

For excitement now its over to BOR and FOGL in the new year.

Bless you pro you live in a different world to everyone else...up 2.5% stick to reading your tea leaves.

What is a matter with you own thread or does no one read your rubbish hence you post on here......needing attention are we...... child

Not often right Pro - but wrong again! Promise you'll buck up!

avsec, there is only one thing ahead now for RKH, and for the first time in a long time its not exploration.

Its now dilution, by either raising funds or farming out.

Whichever way those price targets are going to get slashed, if its a 50% farm out then its 50% off of those price targets. If its a 100% dilution then its 50% off of those price targets.

Whichever way, that is the only thing going to be driving the price now - the funding/farm out issues.

Proselenes,

You say, 'Its now dilution, by either raising funds or farming out'.

I can never understand the sense of anyone looking at so called dilution in the way you do.
Dilution for no monetary value, IE an addition of shares in issue which bring no benefit of cash or equity by way of shared benefit is usually of no benefit to the company, unless its by way of a share issue in place of other monetary reward such as in place of remuneration.
Any issue of further shares in Rockhoppers case will be for reasons to benefit the company and therefore the shareholders.
You have to consider what any fund raising or farm out will bring to the value of Rockhopper.
If it will bring a benefit, then that is all that matters.
If the value of the company stays either on par to pre issue, or such issue increases the net company value, then no dilution has taken place because although the number of shares in issue increases, so would the net value of the company.
If on the other hand the whole becomes less pro rata, then I agree the value of the company would be diluted.
I very rarely answer your posts, because although you don't post with either malice or disrespect (not that I have seen), I do often find it difficult to take most of your posts seriously. Example from your last post...........why should a funding/farm out issue not bring value to Rockhopper?

Regards Greek.

greek, it does bring value...... not arguing there. My point is that the brokers target prices are presently ignoring this dilution.

So whilst it brings value, it will as I said bring price targets tumbling down.

Proseleness,

I stand by my last post.
If a company tie-up or a fund raising brings value then there is no dilution (of value).
What will always value a share, in the long term is the net value of the company, so I still can't see why this should bring the sp down.
By your argument, any tie-up of companies or/and issue of additional equity would be a cause for a companies sp to loose value.
The main reason the sp is playing the up/down game at the moment is the still very small risk that things are not quite as good as they appear, but mainly down to those who day trade and of course the lack of confidence in the markets as a whole.
As we could go round in circles re this, I feel we will have to agree to disagree.

Greek.

i stand with you greek ..... if RKH bring in another, or just a huge slab of cash/shares, that is only to enhance and realise the oil that is already known to be in place ..... thus the dilution is beneficial unlike when a company has to be bailed out