ETFS Short Crude Oil (SOIL) is designed to change each day by minus one times (-1x) the daily percentage change in the DJ-AIG Crude Oil Sub-IndexSM (before fees and adjustments). Therefore if the DJ-AIG Crude Oil Sub-IndexSM falls (or rises) by 1% in one day, then ETFS Short Crude Oil will rise (or fall) by 1%. In addition, an interest component is added each day to give a total return investment.





s7.39 or 4.80P GOOD STARTING POINT. 13 FEB NOW $3.50 or 2.50 half price sorry.

don't disagree at all, but getting the timing right is the diff part

tell me about it in at 331p,296p and finally 244p. Thought i had got it right each time but obviously not. hope to have managed it now but not sure if enough to break even/make profit on a complete sale. might have to take profit on last batch and bide my time for the rest. in no hurry.

Where is the rise here, oil was up >10% on friday, but still this goes down????

my thoughts exactly

Thought something funny was going on here so I contacted ETF securities to get the real story on LOIL. Apparantly LOIL is currently tracking the MAY 2009 contract for crude oil NOT the spot price which has risen over the last few days.

At the begining of each month the contract will roll over to next odd month futures contract. Therefore between april 6-10 one fifth of the contract will roll over each day until 100% of the contract is represented by the JULY 2009 crude oil price (remember it follows the odd months). Therefore if you want to see the true underlying value of LOIL you must watch crude may 2009 futures. Best place to see this is the NYMEX web site.

From what i can see the MAY contract has not moved liked the spot price which may explain the crappy valuation we are seeing now. Hope this helps. Fortunately I only had a small investment in this so am considering bailing now as I bought at 3.52 (USD). I'm sure there is more to how this ETF is valuated but it seems to complex for a private investor like me to invest much more time in this. CRUD is probably a better/safer option due to the price errosion we are seeing in LOIL.

thanks for that
it seems to be the same for all oil etfs e.g. crud, oilw etc as none of them have risen

No problem, just an ammendment to my previous note, it is not tracking the MAY 2009 contract exactly it is actually tracking the DJ-AIG Crude Oil Sub-IndexSM, BUT the point is that this index is a function of the MAY 2009 contract at the moment and not the spot price, thats why watching the MAY 2009 contract at the moment will give a better idea of what is happening in LOIL until early April at which point it will become a function of the JULY 2009 contract etc.

thanks I-F,
I too did not know this. but am prepared to wait
Alex

big drop today, where is the bottom?

God only knows, but seems to be alot of buying pressure when spot price is between $30 to $35. Seems like the floor for the present moment. I will definitely be adding CRUD to my portfolio if/when spot price drops below or nears $30

is that OILW [$33-ish] or CRUD[currently $17-ish] you mean? or something else?

seems to be a better bet than LOIL[will continue to hold and pray SP doesn't drop 50% in any one day... though 6% a day is making me question my decision to buy]

loil seems to react very quickly by going down when the spot price goes down but doesn't react when the spot price goes up, actually it sucks!

Sorry, I was referring to the spot price for crude which you can see here:

http://www.livecharts.co.uk/MarketCharts/crude.php

Although its not the price you are paying for the ETFs you referred to, I think when the spot price reaches around or below $30 it will be an attractive time to get into CRUD. I'm not aware of any other way to purchase crude oil at its spot price for for my ISA otherwise I would consider it.

Just my opinion bear in mind i'm in no way an expert on this subject :-)

march nymex (so near enough to "real") is now about $34.80 ..... should be support just at say $33.50/34.00, so just possibly worth a flutter but with caution

cynic are you calling the bottom?

only a donkey would be called Bottom!
i did however suggest that there might be a rally from this sort of level, but that does not mean it will be heavenbound

cerytainly there is a counter-balance that Dow could be heading for 7200, even if the two do not hold hands

i have just sold, couldn't afford to loose any more - usually a sure sign of the bottom

cynic so perhaps like us you are sitting on the fence, gut feel suggests oil should go lower until OPEC meets next month.

i have rashly taken a small long at 3472, but am not looking to retire on the profit! ...... shall just try to make a turn ..... God willing and depending on the impetus, may exit at 35.30 or if plenty of steam, then $36.20 or thereabouts

out with a very small profit ....would not have thrown it away had i found it in street!