niceonecyril
- 15 Jan 2012 16:19
- 575 of 798
MIDAS: Exclusive rights give miner edge on rivals
By Joanne Hart
Last updated at 9:39 PM on 14th January 201
Platinum is one of the most valuable metals. Highly prized in jewellery, it is also an essential component of catalytic converters, which remove toxic exhaust emissions from cars and other vehicles.
About 80 per cent of the world’s platinum comes from South Africa, where production is dominated by three major companies – Anglo American Platinum, Impala Platinum and Lonmin.
Pipeline: Colin Bird aims to build and run the smelters for small firms
These giants of the industry mine their platinum and process it in massive smelters. They also perform this service for smaller miners for a sizeable fee.
Platinum is found in two main seams in South Africa – Merensky and Upper Group 2 (UG2). Until relatively recently, most came from the Merensky seam, for which the traditional smelters are ideally suited. But Merensky’s supplies are dwindling, so increasing amounts of platinum are being sourced from UG2.
The raw material from this seam is rather different, containing large amounts of chromium that the old smelters find difficult to handle.
At present, about 55 per cent of South African platinum comes from UG2 and this is expected to increase steadily over the next 20 years, presenting a serious challenge for the large mining groups.
But the trend should be excellent news for Jubilee Platinum, a small company with exclusive rights to a new smelting process that is particularly effective for platinum ore from UG2.
The new smelters cost less than £15million to build – about a tenth of the price of a traditional smelter. They are smaller, cheaper to run and produce far less harmful waste gas.
Jubilee has already started to build one and intends to have two facilities up and running by the end of this year. The group owns a chrome producer itself and will use the first smelter to produce platinum from chrome production residues, but it is also in talks with several other companies with a view to processing platinum on their behalf. Two producers have already signed up and others are expected to follow.
Over time, Jubilee chairman Colin Bird aims to work with smaller companies across South Africa, constructing and operating smelters on site for them. This should be considerably cheaper than sending raw platinum ores to the big mining groups to process and it will give smaller miners more control over their production.
Jubilee chairman Colin Bird
Jubilee also owns a 63 per cent stake in the Tjate mine, one of the largest undeveloped platinum projects in the world. The mine is several years from production but it is a prestigious asset, particularly as the metal is predicted to be in short supply over the coming decade.
Tjate is expected to produce 2.4million tons of ore a year once it is up and running. Platinum is currently $1,500 (£970) an ounce, but the price is expected to rise once global economic conditions improve.
Small miners fell out of favour last year as the financing environment deteriorated. But Jubilee is making money from smelting ferroalloys for steel and Bird recently sold a small stake in part of Tjate for £5.6million.
Looking ahead, the group might also sell an Australian nickel mine as this is not a core business.
Midas verdict: Jubilee’s shares were 124p in June 2007. Today they are 121⁄4p. Five years ago, Jubilee did not own the licence for the new smelters and exploration of the Tjate mine was far less developed. In other words, the firm’s situation is much improved but the shares have tumbled. At 121⁄4p, they are a bargain. Small miners are never risk-free, but even if Jubilee hit trouble, it would almost certainly be snapped up by a big rival. Buy.
Traded on: Aim Ticker: JLP Contact: 020 7584 2155 or jubileeplatinum.com
Read more: http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/investing/article-2086672/MIDAS-Exclusive-rights-miner-edge-rivals.html#ixzz1jWRFgXZh
niceonecyril
- 19 Jan 2012 07:58
- 579 of 798
ALEC HOGG: It’s Tuesday January 17 2012 and in this Boardroom Talk special podcast, Colin Bird, chairman of Jubilee Platinum, joins us. Colin, it wasn’t long ago, in fact October last year, I was talking to an analyst from London, Yuen Low, who suggested that Jubilee was the cheapest share on the JSE. Well, it hasn’t done a whole lot since then, until yesterday where it shot up 25%, do you know what’s behind it?
COLIN BIRD: Well, it shot up about 31%, 32% and today it retreated a wee bit and it’s on its way again. I think that there was an article in the Mail on Sunday, which I think is a pretty well followed tipster and financial magazine, which basically the Mail on Sunday said things that cut across all walks of life and I so I think it’s a well read newspaper and I think their tipster is pretty well respected. So that did the company a lot of good and I think you said to me when we last talked that it’s not the easiest story to understand and this was a pretty good article and may have overcome some of the difficulties people were having with understanding ConRoast. There are those who want to label ConRoast as new tech, pioneering, guinea pig type stuff, when in actual fact it’s not and I think the Sunday Mail got that across quite nicely. The analyst I think at…I don’t think [UNCLEAR 1:30], they’ve got a new analyst, he seems to be getting his head around the company as well. So, since we last talked it’s been much of the same and any article by a respected institution, paper, analyst, doesn’t half help to quell the fears or doubts or what people might have on whether or not they want to invest in the company. So, I think the trigger for that price hike was certainly the Mail on Sunday’s excellent article, where they got into what the company was all about.
ALEC HOGG: Yes, I read the piece, it’s a clear analysis by someone who hasn’t really gone too deeply but I suppose the important thing was they came out, they said it was a bargain and let’s buy the shares. The ConRoast, which you’ve referred to now, the new smelting process, how far down the line are you? That article said that you’ve got two producers signed up.
COLIN BIRD: Well, that’s right, it’s been well documented, one of the producers and the talks that we’re into and obviously there are others who are coming to the table, both emerging new producers and existing producers. I think the article made it very, very clear that anybody who’s doing a feasibility study with a view to brnging a mine into production, be it deep min or be it the smallest [UNCLEAR 2:53] surface, cannot avoid talking to us about our ConRoast, especially if there’s chrome involved or UG2 involved.
ALEC HOGG: Northam, have those discussions progressed at all because the whole Booysendal mining project, which is a huge project, was supposedly certainly looking at your ConRoast process.
COLIN BIRD: Exactly and talks like providing the final solution for a 30 or 40 year mine don’t happen overnight. So, talks with all the producers, when I say all the producers – with the key producers, are still progressing in many different forms, in many different shapes.
ALEC HOGG: But Northam are one of them?
COLIN BIRD: Yes, indeed and, of course, any new producers I stressed earlier. We’re approaching the industry somewhat differently, instead of saying we’ll coal smelt for you, we’re trying to form alliances whereby we jointly build the smelter, finance it, we manage it for a fee and then we have a spilt of the value add from concentrate. So that model, whenever you work the numbers is far, far more attractive to any new mine than current smelting terms provided by the industry.
ALEC HOGG: Colin, after our last discussion I spoke to a number of the juniors, not the Chinese at Wesizwe but a few of the others and off the record I said to them why don’t you guys go for ConRoast, surely you want to get away from the majors? They say it’s not proven technology. That’s the message I’ve been getting back all the time. Surely that would mean that if you can get something up and running you’d be able to change those doubters?
COLIN BIRD: You’ve got a point and I’m a little bit surprised about that. I was a little bit surprised at that comment came out because my actual view was the trade understood it, the industry understood it but the investors didn’t understand it and that’s why our share price wasn’t getting the recognition. Prior to Northam we had an eight month trial with Northam, where we put their material through Mintek and we never lost a beat. We actually had an eight month trial, which was tremendously successful and you may be surprised to hear this Conroast has been around about the best part of nine years. There’s not a stick of equipment in ConRoast which is new, unique and I think that it’s not commonly appreciated that ConRoast isn’t about DCR furnaces and roasters. It’s more about being able to extract that platinum out of the molten [UNCLEAR 5:30], which others can’t do and we can do. We can get the platinum out and with other intellectual property rights from the Mintek Development. So, really, I’m quite surprised but thank you very much for passing that on of course.
ALEC HOGG: It’s a bit of a chicken and egg situation, once you’ve got the chicken you’re going to be laying lots of golden eggs it seems. But you’ve got to get that chicken up first; you’ve got to get that first smelter.
COLIN BIRD: You are so right because there we sat with an idea and then whenever we went for funds or we would talk to would-be financiers, banks, etcetera, show us the [? 6:08]. Now, of course, the industry is all very, very keen and things are changing and changing quite rapidly but not as fast as the market would like but the chickens are certainly coming home to roost. We’ve got the power, power is not a situation, a problem to our Thos Begbie plant out in Middelburg. If I look at the - how shall I put this – if I put it what’s been assembled and agreed is in terms of [? 6:45], we’re not very far off committing our entire capability in terms of power at Middelburg. So, not to make a profit forecast, which I’m not allowed to do, total capacity of a system like that is taking the company in the right direction. Of course when I talk about capacity I’m generalising as well, apart from platinum we’ve got a nice little business model going in Middelburg for ferrochrome and smelting dumps and getting the residual metals out of dumps. We’re very busy in and around South Africa and our borders finalising deals to beneficiate dumps, which previously could not beneficiated. So, ConRoast doesn’t sit there totally for platinum and Thos Begbie doesn’t sit there totally for that mission. We’ve got a useful business, which can provide the solution for many owners of dumps, which are standing there as dumps that they’re unable to get the benefit of the contained metals. We can do that for them. So, it’s a very wide business model, which is evolving quite rapidly but as you say not rapidly enough for the market.
ALEC HOGG: Well, when I last spoke with Yuen Low he mentioned that you were in the process of concluding a property sale. His suggestion was that it was a £6m sale to a major platinum producer and that all it needed was for shareholders to approve it. Has that gone through, I haven’t seen anything?
COLIN BIRD: We made an announcement and everything was the same, awaiting a Tjate shareholder approval and that’s still the case but I think it’s less about Tjate approval than it is about the competition board, it will have to be run through that, it will have to be a Section 11, change of direction
ALEC HOGG: So, it’s just process now that’s holding it back?
COLIN BIRD: It’s work in progress, yes and, of course, Tjate shareholder approval.
ALEC HOGG: As far as Tjate’s concerned and that is the, well, the platinum bowl, if you like, of the whole of Jubilee. It’s a huge prospect, we know all about that, you have 63% of the project. The Industrial Development Corporation and the Development Bank of South Africa had expressed interest last time we spoke, is there any progress?
COLIN BIRD: There’s progress there and there’s progress all over when it comes to Tjate and not to give away information, which I’m not allowed to, Tjate was basically – I don’t know – a year ago, 18 months, thought like everybody who’ve got a large platinum or a large project any type in mining was thought to be a financing threat and threat to the business. It’s drawing immense interest now is Tjate on the basis that for 15, 20 years there’s been an imbalance between supply and demand in platinum of about 15%. Obviously the woes of the last three or four years has corrected the balance but the car manufacturers have been very, very slow in replenishing stock piles. Some car manufacturers haven’t bought platinum for ages and as soon as those guys start restocking we’re going to see quite a thrust forward in this platinum share price. So, people now are getting ready for new platinum production and, of course, we sit with ConRoast with a smaller situation but of course we sit with a very large Tjate project. So, while 18 months ago that was of little interest, there’s stacks of interest from all of the aspects of industry and investment that you would expect. So, yes, I think it’s very well known the IDC are interested but so are many others in financing what is recognised as a very good property. It’s well situated, it’s got very good grades, it’s got good grades merensky, it’s got grades UG2 and the geophysics, we’re [UNCLEAR 1:14] and it’s an undisturbed block of rock and in terms of tomorrow’s world, the fourth generation of platinum mines, it’s not that deep. We start at around about 630 metres and finish at 1130 metres for the first 25 year mine. So, yes, Tjate has re-ranked itself even since our last discussion.
ALEC HOGG: One of those long-term value propositions. Let’s just move onto the other company that’s listed on the JSE that you are involved with, SacOil, there was an announcement today that there appears to be progress on Block 3, just by way of background, Block 3 being the huge potential area of oil and gas in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which you guys or SacOil then sold on to the oil major Total but is retaining a 12.5% no investment required interest in the project. How important was today’s announcement?
COLIN BIRD: To us, as a board, it was work in progress. To the investing community, who hasn’t got knowledge of the intimate details of any company, it must rank as a very, very important announcement. We never had any fears that it would happen, it was a time thing but I think the fact that it’s out, everything granted, Total are now our partners without any encumbrances or waiting for any sort of permits like we just talked about. It’s a major step forward for the investment community to have confidence in Block 3. That’s the way I would put it. It was work in progress for us but I think a major event for the investment community.
ALEC HOGG: And there has been quite a lot of work according to your statement out today by Total on Block 3. How long does it take for these things to be finalised for an oil major like that to say, okay, we’re going ahead with this?
COLIN BIRD: There is an element of fast track and it’s unlike my [UNCLEAR 3:20], the mining industry, the decision to drill often comes a lot faster. I think the pre-drilling work is more defined, the parameter…when one looks at the data you generate in your pre-drilling work , I think the decision to drill is probably technically quite a bit easier to make. Conversely, the numbers to drill can be quite a bit bigger than the mining industry. But to answer your question more directly, we expect drilling not to be too far away and, again, it’s work in progress. We’re into a very, very prospective oil field, I don’t want to just shoot numbers out there but I understand the success rate is something like about 37 out of about 39 holes in the entire Uganda/DRC and the propensity for success is extremely high. So, it’s not as though you’re into a green field virgin site, the history is very good and there are adjacent discoveries. In fact, I think it’s Kingfisher, is not a million miles away and now that is one of the biggest discoveries in the field.
ALEC HOGG: So, what’s it going to take for SacOil to be recognised as having this incredible asset on its books? What would need to come out of that Block 3 in the Democratic Republic of Congo?
COLIN BIRD: It’s almost like Jubilee, what has Jubilee got to do to get itself really on the map and get investor confidence. I think the same story with SacOil is lots of good assets the requirement for cash to make them work. But on the basis of just Block 3 and the fact that Total are financing it, good seismics. You won’t have the news flow with a junior who’s working alone as you will have with a major involved, news flow tends to vary a little bit. But a successful drill hole, of course, will open the doors for SacOil but I don’t think it’s just about Block 3, I think it’s about Nigeria, we’ve been busily sorting ourselves out in Nigeria, ensuring that the rights to the various blocks are progressed. That we meet or financing targets for the blocks on time and so there are a number of issues going on at the same time, which will add value. But I think a successful hole for Block 3 would be great, activity in the area around Block 3 might be very good for SacOil, should we do associations with either juniors or majors in the area, which is not out of the question and the fact that we’re bringing something in [UNCLEAR 6:15] in Nigeria into production could also be good news. So, one single event is not a company maker, we’ve got quite a large portfolio of assets but good progression and one of the assets within the portfolio to produce definite solid resources that an analyst can actually put numbers to and around would be the break out [? 6:40] I think for SacOil to move onto the next.
ALEC HOGG: We know what to look for there but I suppose it begs the question in conclusion, if with SacOil you’ve managed to get Total interested, an oil major, what about Tjate, the big platinum project that’s in Jubilee, has there been no interest there in partnering with one of the majors?
COLIN BIRD: [UNCLEAR 7:05] outcome to the conclusion that when I first started at Jubilee they said to me, urgh, no room for you and then when we did the Tjate deal everybody speculated about would Impala, would Anglo, would Lonmin acquire it so that it could get into…secure the Tjate project. Then I look back since then and just about every initiative in new mine development has been the juniors or new players into the platinum industry. So, I suspect any acquisition offer, any major investment offer for Tjate might originate from outside the conventional trade, i.e. those three players I referred to earlier.
ALEC HOGG: So, you could find the Chinese, perhaps Japanese, other investors who aren’t at the moment involved in platinum perhaps showing interest then?
COLIN BIRD: Well, if I were a betting man I would say that any approach that Jubilee might get would most certainly come from outside the industry, the current industry, traditional industry as we know it.
ALEC HOGG: And would you be open to that?
COLIN BIRD: Oh I think the company, one as a board has got to be open to approaches. Every small company has really taken a beating, not necessarily just talking resources at this stage, small companies haven’t been the flavour of the month and so my job and the board’s job is to add value in any proposal, which comes from any source which provide either exit or value add for our shareholders has to be considered and the company has to promote itself in a direction to add a lot of value to shareholders. That’s what I make my business to do.
ALEC HOGG: Colin Bird is the chairman of Jubilee Platinum.
Undertaker - 18 Jan'12 - 14:19 - 11486 of 11489
nice post Eugene
Lostabillion - 18 Jan'12 - 15:40 - 11487 of 11489
Jubilee’s chair explains 30% price hike
Reckons tide has turned. Alec Hogg is not so sure. Yet.
MOOI RIVER - Colin Bird is known in London investment circles as a skilled promoter. The mining entrepreneur who chairs JSE-listed Jubilee Platinum has a way with words. And once he gets going, it’s hard to avoid being caught up by his enthusiasm.
Colin must have been at it again last week. The UK’s mass market Mail On Sunday newspaper printed a bullish piece about the company, which is also listed on London’s AIM, concluding with “bargain: Buy”. That helped the stock price lift by almost a third when trade opened on the JSE Monday, up from around 150c to over 200c.
I was first alerted to Jubilee by old friend Imtiaz Ahmed, a chartered accountant and one of the shrewdest money managers around. Imtiaz had run the numbers and on the strength Jubilee’s 63% ownership of a potential 330 000 PGM ounce a year project called Tjate, reckoned it was one of the cheapest shares on the JSE. Knowing Imtiaz, even though the price has since gone in the wrong direction, he’s sure to still be waiting patiently.
There was further support for the story in October when London City analyst Dr Yuen Low told me in a podcast interview his net present value of the share was six times higher than where it was trading in the market. I got Chairman Bird on the blower shortly afterwards and asked why the investing public was ignoring the story. He was bemused. And remains so.
We contacted him again on Tuesday to try make sense of Monday’s price surge. This time Colin put the reason squarely at the newspaper’s door, praising the “excellent” story which “helped people understand Jubilee’s complicated story”. (Read the interview here)
Whatever you might think of newspaper editors tipping shares to a largely uninformed public, Jubilee really does have a good story. One worth revisiting.
Apart from the Tjate project, its ConRoast-based smelter technology is an attractive alternative for junior miners. At present these would-be mining moguls have to work high tolling costs by the majors into feasibility plans. At current platinum prices that questions the viability of many projects. Jubilee’s ConRoast process is much cheaper. But it has been around for almost a decade and failed to gain traction. In theory it’s a great option for numerous juniors looking for a cheaper way. In practice, as there’s no ConRoast smelter actually operating, even the little guys regard putting their eggs in the Jubilee basket as too risky.
So Bird and his team at Jubilee are faced with the proverbial chicken and egg problem. Once they get their first plant, provided it’s successful, the floodgates will open. But who will provide that kicker? Ever since a memorandum of understanding was signed with Northam Platinum in mid-2010, the Mvela-controlled miner was the favourite. Northam needs a different smelting solution to make its giant Booysendal project work. From public pronouncements, it seems taken with ConRoast. There’s even been an eight month test phase at Mintec which Bird says worked without any hitches. But since those positive early announcements Northam has gone quiet. The line was bad and CEO Glyn Lewis won’t be drawn. But he said on Tuesday that “Northam is considering a number of smelting alternatives”. Perhaps it was merely feigning interest in ConRoast to squeeze a better deal elsewhere? Perhaps not. But it’s certainly not a slam dunk for Jubilee.
Despite a price that’s down to a fifth of the level where it traded in 2007, Jubilee shares are not in any universe of stocks that can be advised for widows and orphans. It could continue to underperform for years to come. So anyone buying in at today’s price level, bargain basement as it looks, must be prepared to exercise patience.
Bird believes that with the global economy edging back, motor manufacturers will eventually have to restock their platinum stockpiles. That, he reckons, would be the trigger for a platinum price recovery and, by association, the whole bombed out entire sector. And then, he says, watch Jubilee shares go. I’ve heard less logical stories. But also many that were lower risk.
This article first appeared on Alec Hogg's daily blog: www.alechogg.com