why on earth has this exciting pharma company been ignored her for the last 3.5 years? ...... lots has happened in that time, generally for the better on the longer view ..... from a purely chart point of view, the 200 mda is rising quite steadily, with sp recovering well after a sharp fall, and now, after a brief tease below, is therefore probably worth buying on that basis alone.

From memory, Shares mag was also quite excited about this stock a week or two back, even though that medium has supported some classic stinkers in its time

in that case, put money with mouth and go short

I don't have any mechanisms to do so. My investmenting has always been on the long side. Having explored SBs and CFDs I decided against them. I suppose that influences my decisions somewhat in respect of the markets.

Strawbs.

of course you do ..... you can take out a bog standard traded option through your broker ..... now what excuse?

Sorry. Don't know what that is, but will look into it now you've mentioned it and see if it's appropriate.

Strawbs.

of course you know what a traded option is - you're a sophisticated investor judging by your posts ..... scarcely some new-fangled derivative .... they've been around for the last 20/30 years and were always the way to hedge positions before the advent of CFDs and similar

Hmmm. Didn't think I was that sophisticated. Sorry to dissappoint you. I've only ever bought and sold equities, and the odd ETF. Are they the same as warrants? If not, then no I definetly haven't heard of them.

Strawbs.

Also, can they be used in a stocks and shares ISA?

If not then probably not appropriate.

Strawbs.

have no idea what rules govern ISAs, but traded options can certainly be used for shares and, i think, indices and probably commodities too

OK. Thanks. I'll take a look.

Strawbs.

well strawbs, by the time you decide to go short, the market may actually have topped, even if only briefly ...... sod's law of course is that whatever action you take, should you ever do so (why should i think that?), the timing will be all wrong anyway!

Yeah. Although I've missed out on a good part of the recent rally, I'm sure I would've been short and lost a packet at some point if able to, so money saved if not money made. That's why I never went SB's or CFD's. If you go long you can only lose your money, if you go short you can lose everything (given that upside is theoretically infinite, and downside only as far as 0). The further up things go of course, the less inclined I am to go long, because I still think we'll be coming back down again. I'll stick to my plan for now, although it may continue to annoy you.... ;-)

The plan (if you haven't seen it elsewhere), is to wait for the aftermath of the October crash.... By Christmas I expect to be buying, either late in the current rally, or after the latest collapse (if I'm right).

In my opinion..... :-)

Strawbs.

quite a while since SHP burst through 200 dma ..... unfortunately, almost each time it has failed to hold same ..... let's hope that this time is different!!

Shire announces reduced turnover but beats forecast
Business Financial Newswire
Shire Plc announced third quarter numbers above expectation as its new drug pipeline helped to offset delines seen from generic competition for Adderall its hyperactivity treatment.

Revenues fell from $779m to $667m but was ahead of the brokers consensus forecasts of $650m, so the market reacted positively and its share price was trading up 30p (3%) to 1054p.




Shire downgraded to hold from buy at Panmure Gordon, TP stays 1100p

Shares in Shire (Stuttgart: A0MMAG - news) jump 6.1 percent, the second biggest FTSE 100 (Euronext: VFTSE.NX - news) gainer , with the index up 1.0 percent, heading a strong pharmaceuticals sector as the firm's second-quarter results beat market expectations.

Shire, which makes expensive drugs to treat rare diseases -- such as Adderall XR for ADHD (Attention Deficit Hyper Disorder) -- posts a 14 percent rise in revenue and 26 percent rise in earnings thanks to "healthy growth" in the hyperactivity market in the United States.

"Strong set of earnings coupled with a dividend increase allows us to take the view (Shire) remains a value equity play with a strong pipeline," says Atif Latif, a director of Guardian Stockbrokers.

"The recent sell off into the results (after the generic version of Adderall XR being announced) was unjustified. This will also be pushed higher by short covering and we see these results being well received by the market," Latif adds.

Shire shares account for 2.6 points of the FTSE 100 index's 61 point rise, although the pharmaceuticals sector overall contributes over 10 points to that index total, with peers GlaxoSmithKline (Other OTC: GLAXF.PK - news) and AstraZeneca (LSE: AZN.L - news) also higher - up 0.5 percent and 0.9 percent respectively -- both rallying after recent falls following their Q2 results disappointments over the past week.

Volume in Shire shares rocketed to 107.26 percent of the 90-day daily average by 1330 GMT, taking off following the midday results release

Shire shares a picture of health

By Ben Martin | Telegraph




Drug maker Shire (Stuttgart: A0MMAG - news) looked a picture of health today as the prospect of a growing product pipeline pushed the shares higher.

The group climbed as much as 3.4pc in trading as analysts at Jefferies turned positive on the stock because “recent weakness offers an attractive entry-point”.

They upgraded their recommendation to “buy” from “hold”.

“We anticipate upcoming news to potentially boost expectations for Shire’s longer-term organic growth prospects,” they said, pointing to forthcoming test results for treatments for Hunter and Sanfilippo syndromes, among others.

The analysts added that they now saw fewer risks from generic competitors to the group’s attention deficit hyperactivity disorder drugs and reckoned the shares looked attractive, having fallen about 20pc since the start of the year. Shire closed up 10p at £18.05.

I have dithered on this one all morning and watched sp climb and climb ...... it's an excellent company, but hard to know how much of this rise just in HOPE of a t/o, which is always a dangerous road to follow

Takeover approach looking more of a distinct possibility....

AbbVie are reconsidering their offer for SHP and as a result, sp has slumped big time to just below the pre-bid level

on that basis, the brave may want to consider buying

i'm afraid the charts on this system are misbehaving as you will note from post 68!

Panmure Gordon comment:
"As expected, Abbvie terminates its offer for Shire, triggering the break fee of $1.64bn. Shire will likely re-commence its acquisition spree which should boost organic double digit growth to high teens over the long-term. With such growth, we believe the stock will trade at a premium to its peer and group and as such re-iterate our Buy recommendation.
It is possible that the loss of 4 months strategic direction may have damaged those plans. Key staff may have made their own exit plans (evidence by the exit yesterday of the interim CFO). However, Shire's rare diseases business remains an attractive asset and we expect Shire to have multiple suitors. Allergan has been mentioned, and GSK should also take an interest in Shire’s portfolio.
With a break fee of $1.6bn confirmed payable entirely at Shire's "sole and exclusive remedy for all losses and damages in connection with the transaction", Shire will at least be compensated somewhat. Investors will worry that Shire's defence plans are too ambitious. As part of its defence, Shire made a compelling case to grow its Revenue base of $10bn by 2020. For a company growing consistently in double digit range, the implied CAGR of 12-13% appears achievable. The company remains acquisitive and Lumena / Fibrotech (+any future ones like NPS, Cubist and/or Salix) should help growth."

Deutcshe Bank comment:
"Following a period of restriction, we are resuming research coverage of Shire with a BUY rating and a new target price (TP) of 4,550p per share. Despite the distractions of the merger process with AbbVie, the company continues to perform well: better-than expected 2Q results led to a FY guidance upgrade (to low/mid 30% EPS growth) and last night's press release confirmed that trading has "remained strong" since the end of 2Q. Furthermore we note that Shire will this year receive an additional $2bn cash ‘windfall’ from a combination of the AbbVie break fee and a Canadian tax settlement. Against this, we now assume a 12-18 month delay to US launch of adult ADHD drug SHP465 (to 2H16), reflecting additional FDA clinical requirements. Our fine-tuned EPS estimates are shown below, although we highlight that these are likely to be adjusted further following the publication of 3Q results on Friday 24 October.
One week prior to AbbVie's interest in Shire becoming public, we published a 38-page report assessing Shire's longer-term prospects ("Pipeline optionality not reflected in shares; forecasts and TP lifted", 9 June 2014). In this we set out why we believe the company’s pipeline could deliver non-risk-adjusted revenues of greater than $4bn pa, equivalent to 70% on top of the current sales base. Consequently - and likely supplemented by business development deals - we continue to expect Shire to deliver double-digit EPS growth over the medium/long term (EPS CAGR 2013-18E: 17%). We further note that the forecasts in our pipeline report were consistent with those later published by Shire in its long-range plan ("the path to $10bn in product sales by 2020").
Our TP is derived by applying a 20x PE (unchanged) to 2015E non-GAAP EPS (using $ £ 1.62; previously 1.68). This PE is arrived at by comparison with a group of fast growing mid-cap pharma companies and reflects our confidence in the sustainability of growth. In support of this, our DCF indicates a similar (higher) value/share (greater than 4,900p). Risks relate to sales trends for key brands, R&D news, rare disease competition and Lialda patent challenges (note: Shire averted the threat of early generics to Vyvanse via its litigation win in June).