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Master RSI 14/9/06 - Fcast for BATM Year 06 | |||
YEAR 06 | Sales | Pretax Profit | EPS |
1st Half | $34.1 M | $4.7 M | 1.14 c |
2nd Half | $39.8 M | $5.4 M | 1.35 c |
Full Year | $73.9 M | $10.1 M | 2.49 c |
Calculations are for a 16.7% increased on sales on the H2, post tax profit of $9,68M after Tax of 420K and on 389M shares |
The Sunday Times October 15, 2006
Tech funds poised for a strong rally
The sector traditionally soars 20% over the winter, and takeover activity may signal a longer-term recovery, says David Budworth
FUND managers are predicting double-digit returns from technology shares over the next six months, as Googles $1.65 billion (890m) takeover of the online video site YouTube has encouraged investors to take a fresh look at the much-maligned sector.
Tech stocks have historically returned an average of 20% between October and March, compared with losses in the summer because of strong spending in the run-up to Christmas.
Analysts believe the takeover, which will turn YouTubes twentysomething founders into multi-millionaires, could kickstart the traditional rally this year.
Some even think we could be at a longer-term turning point, although hundreds of thousands of investors in tech funds who are still nursing losses after the dotcom crash will be forgiven for thinking they have heard it all before.
Tech stocks have lagged the wider market since the bubble burst in 2000. On Friday, the Techmark, which measures the London market dedicated to technology firms such as Amstrad and ARM Holdings, closed at 1,462, down 75% since the peak of 5,743 in March 6, 2000. Its US counterpart, the Nasdaq, has slumped 63% from its peak to about 1,700.
However, things are looking up for a new generation of tech companies, particularly in areas such as broadband and social networking. This was shown by News Corporations $580m swoop on MySpace last year, Yahoos acquisition of photo-sharing site Flickr and its ongoing takeover talks with college site Facebook, and now the Google deal.
Ben Rogoff, manager of the Polar Capital Technology Trust, said: Our analysis of previous tech cycles suggest that the sector is fast-approaching a turning point.
Broadband penetration and the lower cost of bandwidth are the key drivers for a slew of new applications that will allow the sector to deliver the next wave of technology. We believe we are on the cusp of a multi-year period of outperformance driven by superior earnings growth.
He is excited by software companies such as Webex and Salesforce.com.
Mike Bourne, manager of the Finsbury Technology Trust and Close Finsbury EuroTech Trust, takes a venture-capital approach to investing in the technology sector. He backs smaller, unknown businesses, such as Mamut, a Norwegian business software company. He says the opportunities can be mouthwatering, although he accepts the inherent risk.
Bourne said: The technology sector is full of uncertainties, but one constant remains: just when investors start to give up on the sector, it starts to deliver on its promises. Today feels very much like the late 1980s.
Technology was unloved, and only the most committed technology enthusiasts were daring to invest their own money into the sector. History has proved these can be the most rewarding times to invest.
However, other analysts warn that some of the recent deals have overvalued tech companies and that investors should take care.
Jason Britton, manager of the T Bailey Growth fund, said: Watch out for companies that are being backed on the basis of an idea, not the implementation of a proper strategy.
Investors can take comfort from the fact that tech tends to enjoys a rally at this time of year, but they should exercise caution after the spring.
Research by Cowen & Co, a technology-research firm, has found that most of the sectors underperformance over the past 20 years has occurred between March and October.
During the spring and summer months you would have made a typical loss of 1% each year.
Between mid-October and mid-March, however, tech stocks have returned an average of 20%. Over the past six years, when most dismissed technology as a dead duck, the sector has only dropped once in the winter; between October 2000 and March 2001 the Techmark fell 36%.
Over the past 12 months the seasonal trend has reasserted itself. The Techmark rose 21% between October 15, 2005 and March 15 this year, but is down 1% since then.
Alan Torry, manager of the SG Technology fund, feels there are good reasons why the pattern could be repeated this year.
Business spending is weighted to the end of the year as companies rush to spend outstanding budgets, he said.
Consumer spending on items like iPods and games consoles also surges in the run up to Christmas and the Chinese New Year.
The Chinese New Year, which is determined by the lunar and solar calendar, varies from late January to mid February. Like Christmas it is a time for celebration and present giving.
The American economy, the engine of global growth, is expected to slow over the next year, but Hitesh Thakrar, manager of New Star Technology, doesnt believe this will upset the rally.
He said: Although consumer spending on technology is slowing, corporate expenditure is taking up the slack.
The tech giants like Oracle, Cisco and Microsoft are so big now that a slowdown will hardly have an impact.
Research by Morgan Stanley reveals that other sectors tend to outperform in the final months of the year. Bank stocks, for example, have outperformed the market 73% of the time during that period since 1990.
Cyclical sectors such as industrial and consumer stocks also tend to perform well in the winter for similar reasons as tech shares: retail spending picks up in the run up to Christmas and companies are keen to spend money before the end of the financial year.
The easiest way to capture a rally in technology is to buy an exchange-traded fund (ETF).
These track indexes or stockmarket sectors and are bought and sold through a stockbroker like shares.
ETFs are cheap, with no initial charge and a typical annual management fee of less than 0.5%. But you do have to pay dealing charges to buy through a stockbroker.
If ETFs are too specialist, you could consider a technology unit trust. Darius McDermott at Chelsea Financial Services, an adviser, backs SG Technology.
To tap into a rally in banking shares, Morgan Stanley recommends Royal Bank of Scotland.
Alternatively, you could buy a fund which has a large exposure to banks such as Jupiter Financial Opportunities or New Star Global Financial