I suspect trading tomorrow will probably answer this conundrum, but I know there are some far wiser owls than me that contribute to this bb & I would be interested in their opinions.

My question is this: the chart below looks to me like a pullback of the uptrend (ie when it went north through 14.00) however I am unsure as it has now broken down through 14.00 whether this is trending up or down :-(

So what do you think - up or down, or should I just flip a coin :-)) ?

Broker note from HSBC today:
"Man Group Plc (EMG.L):-Upgrade to OW(V): Strong potential for cost restructuring EPS is down from a high of 58.3 cents in 2008 to 12.4 cents in 2012e and the share price has fallen 75% since November 2009
 We understand that little can be done to boost revenues in the short term but a comparison with peers suggests that Man’s cost base could be cut by around USD250m
 We upgrade to Overweight (V) on valuation and upside from potential cost savings, with an unchanged target price of 110p
We acknowledge that not much can be done to boost revenues immediately: AHL has an excellent long-term track record but since the Lehman collapse it has delivered an average annual return of -2.7 %. We acknowledge that the external environment has been unsupportive but it also appears unlikely to change materially in the near term. AHL’s weak performance in recent years and the challenging external environment therefore suggest to us that little can be done to boost revenues.
However, the cost base can be restructured: In our view, management should consider reviewing the cost base again. Even after factoring in the cost savings of USD75m announced in January 2012, we consider Man’s cost base to be bloated compared with those of its listed peers. Our analysis of costs as a percentage of AuM and staff levels in the various divisions indicates the potential to reduce the cost base by at least USD250m, slightly more than FY2012e earnings from management fees.
Upgrading to OW(V): At this stage we have not factored in any more cost savings than those already announced by management. We upgrade Man Group to Overweight (V) from Neutral (V) on valuation grounds and potential cost savings. Our target price remains unchanged at 110p."

110p is a fair valuation imo.

Still falling 70p maybe ..

I've sold on the Short-selling News (by their own broker??? DYOR.), as I think this is "mighty wrong" - (as suggested in Post #572.).

. . . and I have a BUY pencilled-in at 49p . . . so NO rush.

More weakness going forward who knows 60p or 49p.

Oh calamity.

sp going down heading for the lingerie dept?

..Numis says Man Group may not be worth more than "liquidation value"

By Ben Harrington | Telegraph – 2 hours 44 minutes ago

Man Group (LSE: EMG.L - news) was one of the worst performers as City analysts argued the company is "worth no more than its liquidation value".

Bullish investors in Man Group ultimately need to believe that AHL the company's flagship fund will perform well over the next one to two years, argued David McCann and James Hamilton, analysts at Numis.

They added that to perform well AHL needs markets to follow the same trend for a sustained period of time.

However, given the number of global macroeconomic issues which are likely to remain unresolved for the next few years, Mr McCann and Mr Hamilton believe markets will continue to be volatile, gyrating within a range and trendless for some time.

As a result, the Numis analysts said: "AHL will continue to struggle and we think there is little that management can do to change this".

They added: "We are therefore departing from the rose-tinted analyst community consensus view that AHL is on the verge of returning to long run performance of 10pc-15pc per annum and ... everything is about to recover."

The Numis analysts concluded: "There is ultimately just too much uncertainty for anyone to reasonably predict the medium to long term earnings potential for AHL/Man (Other OTC: MAGOF.PK - news) today and thus we would not consider the stock investable, unless it were to fall well below liquidation value." Numis estimates Man Group's liquidation value at between 50p and 75p a share. Man Group fell 3.1 to 79.8p

Man to Acquire FRM

Summary of above link:

StockMarketWire.com
Man Group has agreed to acquire global hedge fund research and investment specialist FRM Holdings Limited - Financial Risk Management.

FRM has fund of around $8.0bn under management.

Man will integrate FRM with its multi-manager business and, through combined resources and scale, will aim to offer clients deeper and more diverse capabilities, increasingly compelling products and services and better investment performance.

No consideration will be paid up front, with contingent consideration dependent on asset retention.

The acquisition will involve a scheme of arrangement under Jersey law and is also subject to the satisfaction or waiver of customary conditions - including receipt of regulatory approvals including from the Financial Services Authority.

It is expected to be completed before the end of the third quarter.

Share price still heading south... shareholders showing no confidence in it and the general financial economy.

What?????? EMG up 5% so far this morning!!!!!

Numis do not seem to know much about valuing companies.
EMG worth "liquidation" value"
How much does Numis value "Facebook" at.
A Company is valued at its potential to generate profit.
As long as EMG have sufficient Assets under Management,
and they charge - is it 2%, annual fee, then they will make steady profit.
They do not have to go out and sell widgets continually.
All it needs for EMG to take off to 140 / 160p is steady world politics.

Any comments about Numis valuations ?

50p would be about right.

another new low and 70p bekons.

Hmmm.....is does look as though EMG are going to drop out of the FTSE 100 list, with the resultant exit by the tracker funds.

The exit by FTSE 100 tracker funds, may be somewhat offset by entry of FTSE 250/350 tracker funds. I am long now, looking for a bounce, as sometimes happens when stocks get booted out of the FTSE 100. H

The rise continues ..

Sub 70p today thats a first.