.

For the risk averse cynic does give good advice. Nobody is ever going to make a packet following him, and nobody will lose a packet either. They might make a little or lose a little but thats all.

But then, if thats all you want then fine.

For me I love risk, I take risk and I try to win big but also mitigate as best possible the downsides.

EG, buy very early - wait - top slice a few to get your pot back but still run the large profits for the gamble. Cynic would take the profit quickly - I run the profits.

Run your winners and cut your losers quickly.

Most people cut their winners too quick and run their losers far too long.

There is also the fact that not everybody can watch the sp's all the time.....I have a normal working life...this is a hobby of mine...and if it makes me some money...good....but I cant spend my whole life doing this...I miss out on some opportunites to sell, I know....it can't be helped...

Pro what a load of rubbish......oil is what they need not gas and oil is a lot more valuable.

Condensate is more valuable than oil for a start, 2 billion barrels of oil would come along with around 15 Tcf of gas, so an LNG plant would be built, the gas turned into LNG after the highly valuable condensate extracted.

As the prospects are a long way from Darwin and Stebbing...it could be anything....or a mixture of both......I still think that another Sealion is out there waiting to be discovered....

MrP - you do not seem to recognise the difference between calculated risk and risk averse ..... the foolhardy (you?) would overload their portfolio with stocks that are intrinsically an outright gamble, whereas the more prudent (me) might take a calculated risk with a more modest stake ..... did you back Foinavon by any chance (100/1)? ..... if you were playing roulette, would you chuck say 80% of your funds on just a single spin for red/black, for at least that has a guaranteed 50% chance of being right? .... if the return on red/black is insufficient, would you put say 40% of your funds on a single spin for a single number (35/1)?

cynic, its all about taking risk, but ensuring that the risk is mitigated as much as possible.

Its simple to do, if you have the brain and the patience to do it. Buying FOGL in the high 40's and low 50's was simple to do. It was obvious it would go up.

Buying FOGL now in the high 70's and low 80's is obvious, it will go up again with Loligo.

RF, it should be a mixture of both.

The work done by BHP concluded that the shallow targets are more likely gas condensate and the deeper targets oil.

Which is why FOGL raised money recently to ensure they could drill the deep targets and not just the shallow ones.

Hopefully if Stebbing is another gas find, given its size, then the 5Tcf barrier will be broken already meaning LNG is viable in the South Falklands - so whatever is found by FOGL will be commercial regardless.

Whilst dry gas converted to LNG is less profitable, condensate sells at a premium to brent crude (condensate is more valuable than oil) - which is why the BOR Darwin discovery might even be commercial on its own.

They could re-inject the gas and just recover the condensate, if they have 300 million barrels of condensate they are laughing - it would be more valuable than Sea Lion which is a lower price crude oil - and condensate per barrel is more valuable.

MrP - nothing is obvious or guaranteed in oil exploration, otherwise 80% of wells drilled would be successful, whereas a good average is about 25% ..... darwin was drilled for oil, not gas of some description, so depending on one's viewpoint, the result was little better than a failure ..... as i see it, the only good bit was to establish that hydrocarbons of some kind were at least present, even if not the "one and only" that would required if success were to be claimed.

you also keep harping on about the commercial viability of LNG if found in good quantities in FI ..... sorry, but i don't think that has any foundation in reality ..... through my biz, i know just a little about LNG, and unless there is a huge demand somewhere in west coast south america - pretty unlikely as they have their own fields - then forget it.

and before you ask, no i have no idea at all about condensate about which you wax so lyrical ..... however, BOR seems to be making far less noise about its potential than even you.

cynic, firstly there is big demand for LNG in Chile, very close the Falklands and Chile is no friend of the Argies.

And if distance is so important, why is LNG from Qatar being shipped to South America ?

Why ship LNG from Qatar to the UK ?

Distance actually means not a lot in todays climate given the high costs of energy.

If the middle east ships LNG to Asia and to South America and North America - then distance means little in the LNG business in terms of viability.

if you are correct about qatar to uk and south america, then i am happy to stand corrected ..... i have also always said that LNG is rapidly becoming the new sexy energy for powering ships and other forms of transport and heating

by the way, if you are such a gambler, do you use CFDs, for they will give you very heavy gearing relative to outlay - between 3:1 and 20:1 depending on the stock and with no time constraints

No CFD's thats for sure. Mugs game.

Here is a few links for LNG.

http://en.mercopress.com/2011/07/01/qatargas-will-provide-argentina-with-lng-on-a-20-year-supply-agreement

http://www.gulfbase.com/news/rasgas-delivers-first-q-flex-lng-cargo-to-south-america/206711

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/c403bec6-3f63-11e1-ad6a-00144feab49a.html#axzz1vJlMnoBO

Yeah Proselenes, I read most of that big long reply. Most of it went over my head, but you said condensate is more valuable than oil.. WTF.

Condensatte isn't more valuble than oil, that's why BOR share price fell so much when they realized that Darwin was condensate

Facepalm

FSM, it is more valuable than oil !!

Read the highlighted part in this Reuters article below.


http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFL5E8FN0JF20120423


UPDATE 1-Borders and Southern makes new Falklands discovery

Mon Apr 23, 2012 6:48am GMT Print | Single Page [-] Text [+]

* Finds valuable gas condensate south of disputed islands

* Says likely to contain 'significant volumes'

LONDON, April 23 (Reuters) - Explorer Borders & Southern said it made a significant discovery of gas condensate off the coast of the Falkland Islands, adding to hopes that the British-governed archipelago will be transformed into a new oil producing region.

The search for oil in waters off the remote islands has angered Argentina, which claims the territory and has sought to disrupt the exploration with legal threats and shipping curbs, in the year which marks the 30th anniversary of a war it fought with Britain over the islands it knows as the Malvinas.

Borders & Southern said on Monday that a well drilled on the Darwin prospect off the south coast of the Falklands found valuable gas condensate, a liquid which often trades at a premium to crude oil.

"It is too early to give an accurate resource estimate, but this large simple structure, with a seismic amplitude anomaly measuring 26 square kilometres, is likely to contain significant volumes," the company said in a statement.

Oil was found to the north of the Falklands by another British firm, Rockhopper Exploration, two years ago and the company is working to bring in a partner to help develop the find and turn the South Atlantic islands into an oil producer.

A second find in the islands could help make the logistics of developing the fields easier.

The discovery of condensate in the Falklands comes at a time of Argentinean focus on its own oil and gas resources. The country controversially nationalised oil f......................

Only an idiot would say condensate is not as, if not more, valuable than oil.


Perhaps you are confusing "condensate" with LNG...........

I was very surprised to see that there was no hype whatsoever about Stebbing.. not a thing.. no rise in sp in anticipation, nothing. Even more so after hearing Proselenes saying that its "inside the gas window" I certainly hope this won't be the case for subsequent wells drilled for FOGL

Where does Proselenes get those wonderful maps from anyway??????????

CFDs are a mug's game because ....?

Over exposing yourself with money you do not have.

who says? .... anyway, you keep telling us all that you like to gamble in order to make lots and lots of profits, and that's the only way to do it, so make your mind up!

cynic, no thats incorrect. I like to take risk and make lots of money, but controlled risks with limited loss potential.

you can do that with shares, s/b and cfds