looking at the sp Inchcape appears to have withstood the big fall in sp. down c.50% since Aug07 - the start of the Credit Crunch . . . . .

By comparison look at INCH and PDG (Pendragon) - from abouit 2005/6 they are somewhat similar (ignore noise!) and then at Aug07 the charts change - such that Pendragon is now about 80% down.

Why has Inchcape fared so much better?

They claim they are "independent" - but I can't imagine this means they are not tied to the Manufacturers - otherwise they won't get the best discounts, will they?

So when will INCH suffer similar falls....?

Can't say I'm impressed by Inchcape's website - far too strong on investor relations...which really means no information at all.....where are the Best Car-Deals?

EDIT (12Nov08), some Director-buying boosted this to 78p, but it slipped back on Media News that car sales are dire (and Retail!), so I suppose no-one expect this to improve for another year - 50p someone?
(Last month Dir-Buy was minute - 7k which wouldn't buy a Dir-car....oops!)

Brokers starting to respond to todays upbeat outlook.... 42p target.....

20-Oct-09 Inchcape INCH Panmure Gordon Buy 35.17p 42.00p - Reiteration

have just bought some of these have missed a lot of upside but still think there is further to go, took my eye off the ball, concentrating on oillies.

I was looking at these when they were 28p ,only noticed today what was happening ,,trouble is i put so much on watchlists i dont know whether i'm coming or going... However after the compny statement and broker rec's i may see if there is a small pullback this week and try to buy a few.

Hurry up Jimmy.

Interesting to note how Brokers have slapped BUY recos on inch over the past couple of days, very bullish i reckon.......

Inchcape PLC

FORECASTS
2009 2010

Date Rec Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

Nomura Research Institute
20-10-09 BUY 140.10 2.43 148.20 2.25 0.90

Numis Securities Ltd
20-10-09 HOLD 140.10 2.40 150.20 2.30

Panmure Gordon [A]
20-10-09 BUY 105.93 1.64 118.56 1.77

Investec Securities [A]
19-10-09 BUY 120.01 1.95 120.00 1.69

SG Securities [A]
19-10-09 BUY 1.82 2.08

execdir/finace director buys on 22 @33 something

AFTER THIS MORNING SPIKE TO 33.50p

Moving forward again as order book/level 2 has 12 extra trades at bid side

From Equity movers.......... INCHCAPE (LSE)

Composite Indicator
Trend Spotter TM		Hold
Short Term Indicators
7 Day Average Directional Indicator	Buy
10 - 8 Day Moving Average Hilo Channel	Buy
20 Day Moving Average vs Price	Buy
20 - 50 Day MACD Oscillator	Buy
20 Day Bollinger Bands		Hold
Short Term Indicators Average:	80% - Buy
20-Day Average Volume - 27294375
Medium Term Indicators
40 Day Commodity Channel Index		Hold
50 Day Moving Average vs Price	Buy
20 - 100 Day MACD Oscillator	Buy
50 Day Parabolic Time/Price	Buy
Medium Term Indicators Average:	75% - Buy
50-Day Average Volume - 25712863
Long Term Indicators
60 Day Commodity Channel Index		Hold
100 Day Moving Average vs Price	Buy
50 - 100 Day MACD Oscillator	Buy
Long Term Indicators Average:	67% - Buy
100-Day Average Volume - 25717621
Overall Average:	72% - Buy
Price Support Pivot Point Resistance 33.4000 29.8200 32.5900 35.3600

RSI,

What has happened to this one?

CONSOLIDATION "The Board has proposed a 1 for 10 consolidation of Inchcape plc ordinary shares, subject to Shareholders approval at the Annual General Meeting to be held on 13 May 2010. Following the share consolidation there is expected to be approximately 460 million Inchcape ordinary shares in issue, reduced from approximately 4.6 billion at present. Terms: Every 10 Ordinary Shares of GBP0.01 will be consolidated into 1 Ordinary Share of GBP0.10 Relative details and dates: 13 May 2010 Annual General Meeting Further information may follow in due course."

Great, yet another way to manipulate the stock. I wonder if they ever round up, rather than down?

StockMarketWire.com
"Inchcape upgraded to BUY by UBS - target price 330p"

There has been a nice rise each day on this since the low of 240p although I have to admit I did not buy in to it

StockMarketWire.com
Interim pre-tax profits at international car distributor and retailer Inchcape jumped to 115.2m - up from 47m last time.

It said pre-exceptional pre-tax profits for the six months to the end of June of 115.2m (2009: 65.4m) were up 76.1% in actual currency and up 67.7% in constant currency.

Reported sales of 3.1bn (2009: 2.8bn) were up 11.1% in actual currency and up 7.9% in constant currency.

Chief executive AndrLacroix said the robust recovery was a testament to the strength of Inchcape's broad geographic portfolio and diversified revenue streams.

He added: "We benefited from the positive impact of operational leverage with strong vehicle revenues driven by industry growth and market share gains in many of our markets and good momentum in our Aftersales business which represents half of the group's gross profit.

"Inchcape's competitive position continues to improve through our strategic commitment to superior customer service enabled by our operational focus on our Top Five Priorities of growing market share, growing Aftersales, reducing costs, managing working capital and selective capital expenditure investment."

Not far from it's 12 month high again. Tempted to take the money & run.

Extract form a large broker note
from Deutsche Bank
refering to stocks to watch
2013........

Deutsche Bank
Markets Research
Europe
Periodical
European Daily
Focus
Tuesday, 4th December 2012

European Equity Strategy 2013 Outlook: Pro Cyclicals
Companies Mentioned
Telecom Italia (TLIT.MI),EUR0.7 Buy Price
Target EUR1.24
Intesa SanPaolo (ISP.MI),EUR1.31 Buy
Price Target EUR1.6
AXA (AXAF.PA),EUR12.67 Buy Price
Target EUR14.3
Adecco (ADEN.VX),CHF45.82 Buy Price
Target CHF54
JCDecaux (JCDX.PA),EUR17.35 Buy Price
Target EUR25
Hunting (HTG.L),GBp806.5 Buy Price
Target GBp1050
BASF (BASFn.DE),EUR69.47 Buy Price
Target EUR76
SKF (SKFb.ST),SEK159.2 Buy Price Target
SEK165
Saint Gobain (SGOB.PA),EUR30.68 Buy
Price Target EUR33.5
Inchcape (INCH.L),GBp429.1 Buy Price
Target GBp480

We are positive on the outlook for equities due to an expected rebound in global
growth to 3.5% in 2013, led by US growth of 2.5%.
In the euro area we expect the pace of deleveraging to slow, the credit impulse to
rebound, and demand to surprise positively in H1 2013. We expect the stronger
GDP growth to improve the fiscal outlook, and for euro area CDS spreads to
tighten.

Three factors that could cause the cycle to turn are 1) an easing in balance sheet
pressures related to the 2011 stress test targets, 2) a slowing in the pace of destocking
in the euro area, and 3) a pick-up in global growth.

In 2012 US household spending was strong, particularly on durable goods and
residential investment. If resolution of the fiscal cliff causes policy uncertainty to
decline, we expect business capex growth to follow suit.

In EM we expect growth to pick-up after 18 months of adjustment, and for the
recovery to regain traction as credit growth stabilizes, led by China.
We expect global growth of 3.5% to drive EPS growth of 6% for the Stoxx 600,
and for the decline in euro area sovereign risks to cause the market to re-rate to
12.5x forward earnings. We expect the Stoxx 600 to rise to 315 by end-2013, and
to 340 by end-2014.

Against this backdrop we believe we should continue to buy cyclicals. The 18%
outperformance of cyclicals relative to defensives since our 2012 outlook note
could be just the appetizer.

The global cyclicals will clearly benefit from a return to 3.5% global GDP growth
and domestic cyclicals should re-rate on the back of a growth surprise in the Euroarea
which might involve a recovery in both business capex and consumer
spending.

A recovery in capex should benefit the revenues of the receivers and enhance the
growth outlook of the spenders. In the next leg of the cyclical rally we need to put
away those ideas that capex is bad.

We recommend overweights in banks, insurance, telecom, chemicals, media and
construction, and underweights in food & beverages. We prefer value over growth
and like the Italian market relative to the Swiss market.

Our 2013 strategy picks are Telecom Italia, Intesa SanPaolo, AXA, Adecco,
JCDecaux, Hunting, BASF, SKF, Saint Gobain and Inchcape.
Michael Biggs
(+44) 20 7545-5506
michael.biggs@db.com

AND

Further to above note ........

3 December 2012
European Equity Strategy
Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 21

Domestic UK has been amongst some of our main sector recommendations this year
(initially in UK Equity Spotlight 17 February). Given the improvements in the Bank of
England’s credit availability indices (for secured lending to households – see chart in
previous section) which correlate well with the UK credit impulse, this trend could
continue into 2013. Comments from Experian also point to a potential pick up in
unsecured lending. This would benefit amongst others the likes of Inchcape, JD
Wetherspoon and Kingfisher.

INCH Inchcape.

Chart breakout and new 52 week high for INCH



Looking for 500p SP going into
the new year 2013.

UK Car Sales up again in November (2012)
December 6, 2012 By Cars UK
The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders has revealed that new car sales grew again in the UK in November – up by 11.3 per cent.




At some point, new car sales in the UK must surely start to ease as the economic pressure bite, but so far in 2012 we’ve had an inexorable rise in numbers.

The latest figures for November show new car sales (well, to be precise, new car registrations – which include Pre-Reg cars) up by an impressive 11.3 per cent, following on from a rise of 12.1 per cent in October, with private buyers driving sales rather than fleet.

It also looks like Ford has been pushing the new Focus hard (or they’ve finally got supply up to speed) as the Ford Focus grabbed the top sales spot for November, narrowly beating the Fiesta in to second place by just 12 sales.

The rise and rise of the UK car market also sees the UK overtaking France as the second biggest new car market in Europe, behind Germany, as the Euro zone car markets contract as Europe’s economies are in an even bigger mess than the UK’s.

Paul Everitt, SMMT boss, said:

New car registrations rose 11.3% in November, positioning the UK new car market as the second largest in Europe.

The upward trend has been driven by private retail customers. The outlook for 2013 remains challenging, but vehicle manufacturers and their dealers will continue to work hard to attract motorists to their showrooms and deliver outstanding value.

The SMMT says the UK new car market has grown to 1,921,052 cars so far in 2012, up by 5.4 per cent on 2011.

Top Selling Cars November 2012
1.Ford Focus
2.Ford Fiesta
3.Vauxhall Corsa
4.Volkswagen Golf
5.Vauxhall Astra
6.Nissan Qashqai
7.BMW 3 Series
8.BMW 1 Series
9.Mercedes C Class
10.MINI


Read more: http://www.carsuk.net/uk-car-sales-up-again-in-november-2012/#ixzz2EI18KoES

11 Dec Inchcape PLC INCH UBS Buy 0.00 436.50 - 515.00 Initiates/Starts

Starts coverage with a 515p SP TARGET.

The full note......

Consumer, Cyclical

Inchcape (INCH.L) Catriona O'Grady...........+44-20-7567 2892
Analyst
catriona.o-grady@ubs.com

Alex Hugh, CFA.............. +44-20-7567 5816
Analyst
alexander.hugh@ubs.com

Price (07 Dec 2012)..............436p/US$6.98
12-month rating..... Prior: Not
Rated => Buy
12m price target...........- => 515p/US$8.26
Market cap...................£2.02bn/US$3.23bn
Full-Year EPS
2012E................................................ 39.00p
2013E................................................ 42.18p

Getting into gear Initiate coverage with a Buy rating and 515p price target
Inchcape is a leading global automotive distributor and retailer. It operates in 26 markets,
carrying out distribution activities in 22 and retail in four. Inchcape holds a premium weighted
brand portfolio with six brands accounting for 90% of profits. We estimate APAC/emerging
m.arkets will generate 70% of FY 12 EBIT. Structural attractions set to continue
Inchcape offers exposure to three areas of structural growth: 1) We expect an increase in car
penetration in Inchcape’s emerging markets, where current rates are 26% below global
averages; 2) We forecast further premiumisation with 79% growth in premium sales across
Inchcape’s emerging markets by 2019E; 3) We have dissected Inchcape’s revenue streams and
believe aftersales is the most defensive and highest margin activity. We see it growing to 19%
o.f sales and 54% of gross profit by 2016 as emerging markets car parcs’ grow and mature. Singapore and the UK offer cyclical upside
Some 35% of the Singaporean car parc is 6-8 years old and will likely be replaced in the next
two to four years – in line with the 10-year Certificate of Entitlement (COE) cycle. We see a
recovery in 2014 with 18% like-for-like (LFL) growth forecast for South Asia. We estimate a
return to peak revenues for the UK gives 12% potential upside to group EBIT, although this is a
m.edium-term story. Valuation: 515p price target based on a blend of PE, EV/EBIT and SOTP
Inchcape trades on 10.4x 2013E PE and 6.9x EV/EBIT, both below 10-year averages of 11x
and 7.4x, respectively. Our sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation implies a fair value of 526p. We
calculate Inchcape delivers a 27% cross-cycle conversion ratio, attractive returns and is cash
positive. We initiate with a Buy.
-
European Morning Meeting Highlights 11 December 2012
UBS

INCH INCHCAPE

14 Dec Inchcape PLC INCH Deutsche Bank Buy 0.00 437.00 480.00 515.00 Retains

SP Target 515p

Deutsche Bank Reaffirms Buy Rating on Inchcape (INCH)

December 14th, 2012 - 0 comments - Filed Under - by Tyrone Williams
Filed Under: Analyst Articles - UK - Stock Market

Inchcape (LON: INCH)‘s stock had its “buy” rating reiterated by investment analysts at Deutsche Bank in a note issued to investors on Friday.

Shares of Inchcape opened at 437.10 on Friday. Inchcape has a one year low of GBX 276.20 and a one year high of GBX 452.10. The company’s market cap is £2.011 billion.

A number of other analysts have also recently weighed in on INCH. Analysts at Exane BNP Paribas reiterated an “outperform” rating on shares of Inchcape in a research note to investors on Tuesday, November 27th. They now have a $7.21 price target on the stock. Separately, analysts at Investec reiterated a “buy” rating on shares of Inchcape in a research note to investors on Monday, November 26th. They now have a $8.02 price target on the stock. Finally, analysts at Nomura reiterated a “neutral” rating on shares of Inchcape in a research note to investors on Thursday, November 22nd. They now have a $7.02 price target on the stock.

Inchcape plc is an automotive retailer and distributor. As December 31, 2011, the Company operated in 26 markets, of which it operated as distributor in 22 of these, with retail only operations in the United Kingdom, Poland, Russia and China.

http://www.dailypolitical.com/finance/stock-market/deutsche-bank-reaffirms-buy-rating-on-inchcape-inch.htm