Help me - I bought these a month ago - when they were being tipped all over the place. Since then the sector has gone down the swannie - should cut my losses (13%) or hold on for the long haul?

Good analysis friom PRO TA- er ZAK MIR..

http://sharecrazy.com/beta/Tips/1526/a-star-a-dog-and-a-rebound

PSN the star by the way.

Taken from he Blue Index blog

Persimmon and on
April 23rd, 2009

A sure sign today that the UK housing market is at least firming up and finding a bottom. We still have one helluva long way to go though, and while Darlings budget yesterday seems to have been universally slated, there were a few items to help stimulate the housing market:

* Stamp duty holiday extended until the end of 2009
* Mortgage Interest Scheme extended by six months
* Introduce mortgage security backed guarantee to help banks lend
* Invest 80 million to shared ownership HomeBuy scheme
* Reduce restraints on new contruction to help meeting demand for housing
* 500 million of support for house building firms to deliver 1,000s of new homes, including 100 million for green housing
* 50 million to modernise homes for people in the armed forces

On the face of it, that provides plenty of stimulus and support for Persimmon (PSN), the UKs second-largest house builder by market cap. Persimmon updated on trading, saying Q1 volumes continued ahead of expectations, and said while the recent improvement in market conditions is encouraging, it remains cautious about the outlook until mortgage availability improves further and employment prospects become less uncertain. The group said it currently has 6,500 homes reserved, contracted or legally completed with total sales revenue of about GBP960m, and added its position in the market will provide a strong platform for growth when the market improves. The trading update covers the 16 weeks since the start of the year.

The rest of the article is here
http://blog.blueindex.co.uk/2009/04/persimmon-and-on/

Strong move up on the back of trading update.

Just sniffing the fresh air.

NO SMELL JUST LOVELY AIR.

Interesting to see all the builders under stress. With the improvement in the housing market shuddering to a halt, IMHO there is a real risk that the economy/ SM is going to rollover. Perhaps quantitative easing will support things but I for one am quite happy to keep a cash pile until we see where things are going.

From Digitallook today:
"The wheels have come off the Persimmon revival bandwagon this year with the stock coming down from its January peak of around 500p to dip below 400p at one point but they are back on the rise after Tuesday's results, with good cause, in Panmure Gordon's view.

The broker has upgraded its price target for the housebuilder to 555p from 549p and retained its 'buy' recommendation after Persimmon announced 2009 figures that were ahead of Panmure's expectations.

"A continued focus on operating margins at the business, has significantly improved profitability and this should continue. Whilst concerns remain over the fragility of the UK mortgage market and ongoing economic conditions, these are reflected in our assumptions," Panmure Gordon said, adding that it would revise its projections after the company's analysts' meeting.

The Panmure team's early thoughts are that its £13m profit before tax forecast for 2010 will be bumped up, possibly as high as £75m."

"Prime Markets says that the dividend boost at house-builder Persimmon should support a break higher in the shares and reiterates its buy recommendation on the stock.

Housebuilder Persimmon has today produced a sterling set of numbers, offsetting a revenue fall with a profits boos t while reducing net finance costs and net borrowings, said head of dealing at Prime Markets, Richard Curr.

The broker expects shares to pick up to 413p in the coming seven to ten days."

Persimmon plc today announces Final Results for the year ended
31 December 2011


Highlights

· Underlying pre-tax profits* increased 55% to £148.1m (2010: £95.5m)
· Full year revenue of £1.54bn (2010: £1.57bn)
· Legal completions steady at 9,360 (2010: 9,384) and average selling price** reduced by 2% to £166,142 (2010: £169,339) reflecting a greater proportion of first time buyer homes in the sales mix
· Operating margin* increased to 10.0% (2010: 8.2%); with second half improvement to 10.8%
· Strong cash generation of £119m with net cash of £41m at year end (2010: net borrowings of £51m)
· Healthy landbank, with c.14,300 plots acquired in the year, bringing the total of owned and controlled plots to c.63,300, representing over 6.5 years supply
· Continued focus on the development of strategic land with c.50% of replacement land successfully converted from the Group's strategic landbank
· Net assets per share increased by 5% to 608.6p (2010: 579.1p)
· Underlying basic earnings per share* increased by 48% to 36.8p (2010: 24.8p)
· Increased final dividend of 6.0p per share (2010: 4.5p per share), making a total of 10.0p for the year, an increase of 33%
· Strong forward sales of £927.4m (2010: £848.1m) - up 9.4%

*stated before exceptional items and goodwill charges
**stated before fair value charge on shared equity sales


Strategic review and long term Capital Return Plan

· Detailed strategy review that seeks to take full advantage of Persimmon's excellent prospects, while maintaining the Group's capital discipline
· Programme to return £1.9bn (£6.20 per share) of cash to shareholders by way of dividends over 9.5 years, from 2013 to 2021
· Group to remain largely ungeared throughout this period
· Strength of the Persimmon business model will support development of a stronger, larger business over the next decade while maximising return on capital employed and providing greater certainty of returns to shareholders
· We believe that successful execution of this strategy will optimise the financial performance of the business and enhance value for shareholders

Nicholas Wrigley, Group Chairman, said: "Underlying profit before tax grew by 55% during the year, as Persimmon's successful strategy of improving operating margins, investing in high quality land and generating surplus cash to pay down debt proved highly effective, despite difficult prevailing housing market conditions.

Looking ahead, we have made a strong start to the year, with forward sales up by 9.4% to £927 million. Visitor levels and reservations continue on an improving trend and, although we expect the UK housing market to remain difficult, Persimmon is in a strong position to meet this challenge.

In addition to the strong financial results we are reporting today I am pleased to announce the conclusion of a strategic review, which will see Persimmon return £1.9bn of cash to shareholders over the next 9.5 years, whilst maintaining a largely ungeared balance sheet. This new strategy sets Persimmon on course to build a stronger, larger business and deliver enhanced shareholder returns over the next decade."

Excellent volume so far.

It's a nice "Up-Market" business; but the time to buy was 2008 (under £2!) so that now the Yield would be nearer 5% - as it is, anyone buying now (£7), is getting a poor Yield despite it being raised to 10p/sh (News, today-DYOR), over the year.
[PSN] PE is almost 10, making this about 3x the "value" of TW, - but TW. is yet to return to Dividends. I hold only [TW.] and suspect TW will increase in value more than PSN, as it has further to (re-)gain. I bought TW about 30p av....now double-ish.
I think the figures released really show the housing mkt has yet to gain legs.....all down to Banking Loan restrictions, etc.
IMHO.

RNS Number : 2978Y

Persimmon PLC

28 February 2012

28 February 2012

Persimmon Plc

Directorate Change

Persimmon Plc (the "Company") is pleased to announce that Richard Pennycook, Non-Executive Director will be appointed as the Senior Independent Director on 19 April 2012, in succession to David Thompson who is retiring as a Non-Executive Director on that date, as announced earlier today.

The Company also announces that Mark Preston, Non-Executive Director was appointed to both the Audit and Remuneration Committees on 27 February 2012, following David Thompson's retirement from both of these committees on that date.

G N Francis

Group Company Secretary

This information is provided by RNS

The company news service from the London Stock Exchange

END

Persimmon is expected to report a good first-half performance when it updates the market on Tuesday.

The housebuilder continues to make good progress in all its main areas and has a profit margin that most of its main competitors can only admire.

Analysts at Panmure said the company should report a good balance sheet with a net cash position.

“For 2012 we believe that Persimmon will report a 2.1pc increase in volumes [this is conservative], and a 1pc increase in pricing. Net margins are likely to increase by 140bps in our view as the group benefits from a higher proportion of new land.”

Profits before tax for the full year are expected to come in at £178.8m.

After a good start to the year attention will be focused on the second half, particularly August, which is typically a quiet month. The Olympics could exacerbate any slowdown.

Persimmon is likely to update the market on completions the number of houses sold during the period as well as work on developing the company’s land bank.

Trading Update

Persimmon plc announces the following update ahead of its Half Year Results to 30 June 2012, which will be released on Tuesday 21 August 2012.

We legally completed 4,712 new homes (2011: 4,439) in the first six months of 2012, an increase of 6% on the prior year. Sales rates have continued to run ahead of 2011 through the Spring season, with weekly average private sales rate per site for the first half being c. 18% ahead. Turnover for the first half was c. £805 million, a c. 13% increase on the previous year. Cancellation rates remain at low levels in line with the prior year at c. 18%.

Bovis's sector peer, Persimmon (LSE: PSN.L - news) , follows up on Tuesday with its interims. "Attention will focus on current trade comments in our view, in order to get a feel for the sector's health ahead of the important Autumn trading season," Panmure Gordon said.

Interim Results

Highlights


· Underlying pre-tax profits* increased 65% to £98.7m (2011: £59.7m)

· Revenue 13% ahead at £806.7m (2011: £712.8m)

· Legal completions up 6% to 4,712 (2011: 4,439) and average selling price increased 7% to £171,206 (2011: £160,583)

· Strong improvement in operating margin** increasing 320bps to 12.2% (2011: 9.0%)

· Excellent cash generation of £112.9m (2011: £55.1m) with net cash of £135.2m as at 30 June 2012 (June 2011: net borrowings of £15.2m)

· Landbank strengthened, 5,779 new plots acquired on 50 sites in the first half of the year, bringing the total of owned and controlled plots to 63,786 (2011: 62,364), representing over 6.5 years supply at current sales levels

· Continued focus on the development of strategic land with c.34% of replacement land successfully converted from the Group's strategic landbank

· Net assets per share increased 4% to 625.7p (2011: 601.1p)

· Underlying basic earnings per share* increased 66% to 25.7p (2011: 15.5p)

· Strong forward sales of £1,041m (2011: £1,005m) - up 4%

*stated before exceptional items of £1.7m (2011: £2.2m) and goodwill impairment of £2.1m (2011: £1.6m)

** stated before exceptional items of £1.7m (2011: £12.0m) and goodwill impairment of £2.1m (2011: £1.6m)

Capital Return Plan

· Strong first half performance represents an excellent start to the delivery of the new strategy and plan to return £1.9bn (620p per share) to shareholders over 9 years

Group well on track to make first dividend payment of 75p per share in June 2013

I am so liking that last line skinny that on any weakness I'll be adding more.

They plan to return £6.20 of surplus capital over the next 9 years !

Yep - tough eh! :-)

Bought a shed load of housebuilders earlier this year. Timing was crap as it was near the previous peak of most of them but they are all attacking or breaking those previous high's recently.

Bottom of the cycle reached and now its a case of hanging on til the boom that will happen as sure as night follows day.