ArmorGroup International plc

For over 25 years ArmorGroup has been recognised as a leading provider of
defensive, protective security services to national governments, multinational
corporations and international peace and security agencies operating in
hazardous environments. ArmorGroup provides protective security services,
security consultancy, security training and mine action services. It has 9,000
highly trained and experienced employees and operations in 38 countries. Over
the past two years it has supported its clients in over 160 countries across the
Middle East, Africa, North and South America, the CIS and central Asia.


http://www.armorgroup.com

Positive move up - Could signal the S.P. drop yesterday was an overreaction.

Volumes are up and the S.P. is recovering well.
Volume: 1,607,667
Avg. Vol: 113,431

- Another Contract Win for ArmorGroup -

ArmorGroup wins 5 yr deal worth up to 10.5 mln usd to guard US embassy in Jordan
AFX


LONDON (AFX) - Security services provider ArmorGroup International PLC said it has won a five year contract worth up to 10.5 mln usd to guard the US embassy in Amman, Jordan.

The company said the contract, which will start in early Feb, was awarded to its US Defence Systems unit. It expects to deploy a 'substantial' team, which will include 190 local Jordanian guards.

'This is a strategically important contract in what is, we believe, one of the fastest growing markets in the region,' Noel Philp, ArmorGroup's chief operating officer, said in a statement.

The contract was put out to tender following the US government's analysis of its local guard need in an increasingly high threat environment, the company said.

Shares Foresmost Today

ArmourGroup Negotiates Minefield


Security services firm ArmorGroup (ARG) has issued a profit warning
after failing to attract third party users at its training facility in Iraq.
The company has struggled to find occupants for the facility since a
Ministry of Justice deal concluded at the end of 2005. It expects full year
results to be marginally below market expectations because of
the lost revenue.
Negative sentiment continues to surround the stock but
ArmorGroup insists its outlook remains encouraging. Its share price
slumped in late 2006 after a huge sell-off by institutional investor
Fidelity, which slashed its stake from 10% to under 3%.
Much of ArmorGroups work is secured via indefinite delivery and
quantity (ID/IQ) deals. These guarantee the company will carry out
work but there is no firm start date. This structure has brought
confusion over anticipated revenues.
In 2005 ArmorGroup and two consortium partners won a five-year,
$500 million ID/IQ weapons reduction contract from the US
Department of State. The City had assumed revenue would come
during 2006 but the consortium has still to earn any real money,
according to communications director Patrick Toyne Sewell.
The Fed funds were diverted to the Hurricane Katrina clean-up, so
weve yet to do any significant work. We realise ID/IQ contracts can
confuse the market, so further wins will not be announced until the
work is actually underway, he says.
ArmorGroup is hoping to boost its high-margin specialist training
work. Notable interest has come from oil and gas companies seeking
to enter regions that are potentially unstable.
A dramatic rise in abductions among oil workers in places such as
Nigeria prompted ArmorGroup earlier this month to acquire kidnap
and ransom consultancy Neil Young Associates.
Recent contract wins suggest 2007 will be a more prosperous year
for the firm. It has started to help the UK government with security
services in Afghanistan. The bulk of revenue from efforts in Lebanon
to clear unexploded ordinance and cluster bombs will also be realised.
by: Dan Coatsworth

Getting more media coverage now, The Telegraph stated 'Hold, Blip in security firms shares over iraq govt contract problems but remains strong company'

G D Potts

Very tempted by Armor, feels like a classic recovery situation. Believe shares will be held back with recent profit warning, but looks like 2007 should be a strong year for them. Plenty of contract wins recently, so sure market will warm to stock, but it can take some time, as we know with GTL.

Will buy on any weakness.

Good Luck

I think GTL is trying to establish its name but ArmorGroup is simply trying to re-establish it and since they confused the market and suffered the consequences previously I believe they ll do well this time.
As you say contract wins are positive - still no RNS for the announcement on AFX yesterday.
And don't forget they could have a long list of contracts that they havent announced since they want to have revenue from the contracts before announcing them to avoid confusion.

Think it could really be a success story of 07.

I agree

I hope to buy in soon on market weakness.

43.5 m us of new contracts annouced in last 3 months. Not bad going.

I have a feeling we could see alot more soon, and all only annouced after work has started.

Yes exactly Spitfire - Could be a good 07.

I think a good sign of strength is the fact that the S.P. is continuing to move fowards even after the pre-close statement said earnings would be below estimates/

Agreed a good sign. Shoud think the shares will remain subdued for some time after profit warning. But sure confidence will return after some more positive news flow.

the only blue in my portfolio at the moment

Haven't brought in yet, just waiting for the right time. As you may have noticed have invested elsewhere, so in need of some new funds (hopefully arriving soon) to make purchase. Activity still subdued with Armor at the moment, so should be a good opportunity for me soon.

ABN AMRO have updated there hold position, and revised earnings slightly downwards as expected. See below.

Broker Date Rec Pre-tax () EPS(p) Pre-tax() EPS(p)
ABN AMRO[W] 05-02-07 HOLD 4.73 6.34 6.36 8.38

That's a shame - Though I hope after the commencing of new contracts positions will be updated to 'BUY'.

The bush speech advising a defence spending increase should add weight to Armor's position.
Do you really think the S.P. will go much lower than this Spitfire? I waited at the beginning but thought that it was too good an opportunity, even at the current S.P. to pass up.
As you say though you've bought some GTL! Ive got my fair share too and they are giving me a headache at the moment.

It may just hold the price back for a month or so, but the revised figures are only inline with the profit warning and only slightly down on previous one. As you say a few more contract wins and I'm sure 2007 will be a very good year. Apart from some profit slippage in Iraq, which thay are now steering away from, I think they will come out this year alot stronger.

looks like the start of a solid trend to me.

Gaining nicely now up 2p today at 78p, wish I had brought these rather than GTL. Will keep Armour on watch list with a view of buying at the right time.

Yes I am wondering why I took such a relatively small punt in comparison to GTL - Spitfire I think ARG is still cheap and it looks like the market believes that too - nice graph developing I think. If you can Id bet on them to carry on moving north - but its your decision.